Will West Virginia Find Success or Struggle Against Iowa State's Top-10 Defense?

Closely examining the Cyclones' defense heading into this week's matchup versus West Virginia.

Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

West Virginia has another stiff test this weekend as they welcome the 11-ranked Iowa State Cyclones to town for a primetime kick.

The big challenge in this game will be moving and scoring the ball on this stingy Iowa State defense led by longtime coordinator, Jon Heacock.

Neal Brown on Jon Heacock's success

“He’s done a great job there. They’ve got a system that’s in place. They’ve been doing that now for a number of years. He’s got answers. He’s done a really good job countering within a game. Statistically, you can look at it, it speaks for themselves. They mix up coverages. Their defensive line, they’ve done a good job recruiting big bodies that are long and that makes the defense go because they eat up gaps.”

When you glance at the Cyclones' defensive statistics, you probably think, "Oh boy, the Mountaineers are in for a long night." And while those thoughts are valid, I'm here to put some context to the numbers.

Light competition

In the four FBS games they've played, the Cyclones have seen some of the worst offenses college football has to offer. The following are the national total offense rankings for those opponents: Baylor (90th), Iowa (96th), Arkansas State (101st), and Houston (116th).

Doing what good teams do

Despite the competition not being all that challenging to this point, Iowa State has held all four of its FBS opponents under their season average for total yards per game. Baylor was -10, Houston - 46, Arkansas State - 137.5, and Iowa - 28.3.

On average, they're holding opponents to 55.4 yards fewer than their average. If you go Power Four games only, it's 28.1 yards less.

Vulnerable vs. the run

The Cyclones have been terrific against the pass. Against the run, however, it's been hit-and-miss.

Iowa State ranks eighth in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game, giving up almost eight more yards on the ground than West Virginia's defense. But for a more accurate measurement, I'll point to the yards per carry statistic. They're giving up 4.2 yards per tote which is 10th in the league.

Considering this West Virginia team loves to run the football, this could be where the Cyclones struggle. They've had numerous injuries at linebacker this season and in a matchup like this, those losses could become more noticeable.

Final verdict

So we don't get accused of cherry-picking things to make it look like Iowa State's defensive stats are skewed, let's look at what they've done in recent years. In three of the last four seasons, Heacock's unit finished in the top 20 nationally in total defense. This year, they currently rank ninth. That should tell you that what they've put on tape thus far is not fools gold.

This defense is going to give the Mountaineers some issues, no question. But I don't expect them to fully contain West Virginia's dynamic run game, especially when you add in the wrinkle of quarterback Garrett Greene making plays with his feet.

My prediction is that West Virginia is held to under 180 yards passing, but rushes for 180 or more. Is that enough to pull off the upset? It just might be.

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