Win Totals: What is West Virginia's Floor & Ceiling in 2023?
It's been seven years since West Virginia reached double-digit wins in a single season and since Neal Brown took over the job in 2019, the Mountaineers have failed to win more than six games.
So, what should fans expect from WVU in 2023?
Well, for starters, the schedule doesn't do them any favors. They open up on the road with a night game in Happy Valley against a top-10 caliber Penn State team and then two weeks later, host Pitt in the Backyard Brawl before jumping into Big 12 Conference play.
You could make the argument that this is the most difficult non-conference slate West Virginia has had this century. Going 3-0 seems extremely unlikely and I don't believe anyone truly expects that but Brown can't afford to go 1-2 in non-con with the only win coming against Duquesne.
With the additions of BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston, it makes the Big 12 an even deeper league and much like basketball has become, there are no soft spots on the league schedule.
With that said, let's dive in a little deeper into the schedule to see what games will determine how the season will go for the Mountaineers.
West Virginia's floor: 4 wins.
As previously mentioned, there's a possibility WVU begins the season 1-2. The bigger issue is things don't get any easier at the end of September as they face off against Texas Tech before hitting the road to take on TCU.
By the end of the month, West Virginia may be sitting at 1-4 or 2-3 and that's a rather large hole to climb out of from a confidence standpoint. Fortunately, the first two games of October are against two of the "weaker" teams in the league in Houston and Oklahoma State. Those two games in particular will tell a lot about how the rest of the year will go.
It's difficult to see where the wins are going to come from. If Garrett Greene/Nicco Marchiol struggle in the passing game and the offense becomes one dimensional, they won't cross four wins.
Teams they should beat: Duquesne, Houston, Oklahoma State, BYU.
West Virginia's ceiling: 6 wins.
Again, it's a challenge to find wins. Maybe they play well in the Backyard Brawl with the crowd behind them and knock off Pitt. It's certainly possible. The only other game that I feel they have a chance to win, as of now, is Cincinnati. It's a home game late in the year, it's senior day, and the Bearcats may be hurting from a depth standpoint by that time of the season.
Are there other games WVU can win? Sure, anything can happen. But beating Penn State will, in my opinion, take a miracle. Texas Tech has Neal's number. And TCU, UCF, Oklahoma, and Baylor are all tough places to play.
Just based on the past four years in addition to the youth at quarterback, receiver, and some spots on the defense, I don't see a world in which WVU gets to 7+ wins in 2023.
Teams they could beat: Duquesne, Pitt, Houston, Oklahoma State, BYU, Cincinnati.
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