Matchup predictor only favors Wisconsin in two more games this season

The computer model does like Wisconsin's chances against Rutgers, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska or Minnesota.

Wisconsin Badgers C.J. Williams (4) and Tawee Walker (3) headbutt at the end of a timeout during the game at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. on Saturday, September 14, 2024. / Gabi Broekema/USA TODAY NETWORK- Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Big tech doesn't like Wisconsin's chances to win many games the rest of the college football season.

According to ESPN's matchups predictor, Wisconsin has a 78.1% chance to beat Purdue on Saturday. But after that, the predictor is giving the Badgers the edge in just one of its final seven games. Take a look at the week-by-week win chances for Wisconsin, per the model:

• vs. Purdue: 78.1%
• at Rutgers: 30%
• at Northwestern: 58.6%
• vs. No. 7 Penn State: 12.5%
• at Iowa: 22.7%
• vs. No. 6 Oregon: 18.6%
• at Nebraska: 24.3%
• vs. Minnesota: 45.9%

It's been a tough start in Luke Fickell's second season leading the Badgers. Wisconsin had narrow wins over lesser foes in Western Michigan and South Dakota before getting smoked 42-10 by Alabama. Then, after a bye week, the Badgers blew a 21-10 lead and lost 38-21 at USC.

Wisconsin has lost its No. 1 quarterback Tyler Van Dyke to a torn ACL and on Thursday the team's top running back, Chez Mellusi, stepped away from the program to focus on his health. That leaves backup Braedyn Locke as the starting quarterback and a trio of players trying to cement themselves in the pecking order of running backs on the roster.

We should get some clarity about that order — it's a battle between Tawee Walker, Cade Yacamelli and Darrion Dupree — when Wisconsin kicks off at 11 a.m. CT Saturday at home against the Boilermakers, which is a huge game considering the road gets tough from there.

Wisconsin plays at Rutgers in Week 7 before playing the only other game on the schedule that ESPN's model thinks they'll win, and that's against a 2-2 Northwestern team that is playing at a temporary home stadium and is struggling to produce points.