What are Wisconsin's chances of sneaking into the College Football Playoff?

What happens if the Badgers win out? Could they somehow get in with three losses?

Oct 12, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Wisconsin Badgers offensive lineman Joe Brunner (56) and offensive lineman Joe Huber (60) celebrates after a touchdown during the first half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

What happens if the Badgers win out, with notable wins over Penn State and Oregon?

According to ESPN's FPI rating entering Week 8, Wisconsin has a 1.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff. With two games remaining against current top-three teams and two more against top-25 caliber teams in Iowa and Nebraska, a 10-2 Wisconsin (potentially 11-2 with a Big Ten title game win) would be tough to leave out of the Playoff, even with a pair of three-score losses on their resume. The 1.7% number probably represents their chance of winning out.

Chances To Make The CFB Playoff According to the ESPN FPI Entering Week 8 🏟️ pic.twitter.com/bN6HffxdbL

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) October 17, 2024

The Badgers will likely be underdogs in at least four of their final six games, but Oregon and Penn State have both looked vulnerable despite holding undefeated records. If they do win out, they would only have one loss in conference play and would be firmly in the mix to play in the Big Ten Championship game alongside teams like Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State.

Based on the extreme likelihood that Wisconsin does not close the regular season on a nine-game winning streak, I think the better question would be what is the chance of a three-loss Big Ten team getting an invite?

In this hypothetical scenario, let's say the Badgers upset both Oregon and Penn State at home, but trip up against Iowa or Nebraska on the road and finish 9-3 with no conference title game berth. Would their resume be worthy of an invite?

They would have a blowout loss at home to Alabama, in a game where starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke was injured, and then losses on the road to USC and either Iowa or Nebraska, all of which have proven to be to-25 caliber teams. But they would have wins over Penn State and Oregon, who currently look like two of the best teams in the country.

For the three-loss scenario to have any chance of happening, there would likely need to be some chaos across the country. While there's still more than half the season to play out, it's fun to think about what could potentially happen if the Badgers keep winning week after week. It starts on Saturday against Northwestern.