Wisconsin on short list of 'underdogs' to make College Football Playoff

Do the Badgers have a realistic shot of making the first 12-team playoff?

Wisconsin safety Austin Brown (9) is shown during spring football practice Thursday, April 25, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin. The Wisconsin Badgers football team plays their season opener against Western Michigan on August 30. / Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

The 2024 college football season will be a monumental year in the sport's history. It will be the debut of the new 12-team playoff. In the 2010s, Wisconsin was always ranked somewhere near the top 12, but do they have a chance to make a run at the new postseason this year?

Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner from the Athletic recently put together a list highlighting seven of the best underdog contenders for the College Football Playoff in 2024. The Badgers are mentioned as a team that could surprise people.

"For everything to really come together, though, coach Luke Fickell has to let the new-look Badgers open things up a bit," the article reads. "As an example of how a conservative 2023 played out, on New Year’s Day, Wisconsin was leading LSU by three points with less than 11 minutes left in the game and punted from near midfield — twice. And then lost. To pull off surprise wins, underdogs need to take chances!"

The story mentions how Wisconsin was near the bottom of the country in turnover luck. They recovered 29% of their fumbles, which was the eighth-worst mark in the sport. Heading into year two of the Fickell and Phil Longo experiment there is plenty of reason for optimism.

When looking at the Badgers' realistic chances of qualifying for this year's tournament, they would likely have to qualify as an at-large team and their challenging schedule might help their chances.

In the new format, the winners of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 championship games will automatically qualify and receive a first-round bye. The fifth-highest ranked conference champion will automatically qualify as essentially the best team from the "Group of 5" non-power conferences.

That will leave seven at-large teams chosen for the 12-team bracket. With home games against three different preseason top-10 teams — Alabama, Oregon and Penn State — the Badgers will have three major opportunities to prove they belong in the discussion for one of those spots.

The challenging schedule makes a run at the Big Ten crown seem like a long shot, but if they're able to win two of those games and survive the regular season with maybe only one other loss, they'd almost be a shoo-in as an at-large team. The biggest question will be whether or not the committee would be open to choosing a three-loss team.

If Wisconsin has wins over Alabama and Penn State, but losses to USC, Oregon and Iowa and they finish the season 9-3, would there be any chance of an at-large selection?