Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for NLDS Game 3 (Trust Michael King)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Game 3 matchup in the NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

San Diego Padres pitcher Michael King. / Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The San Diego Padres rode a three-hit, two-homer game from Fernando Tatis Jr. on Sunday night to even their series with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.

Offense has been the name of the game in this series, as Los Angeles scored seven runs in a 7-5 win in Game 1 before San Diego hung a 10-spot on the Dodgers’ pitching staff in Sunday’s 10-2 victory.

Now, the series shifts to San Diego where the Padres are heavily favored in Game 3 with Michael King – their Game 1 starter in the NL Wild Card – on the mound.

King was lights out against the Atlanta Braves last week, tossing seven innings of five-hit ball while striking out 12. Can he duplicate that performance against Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and this vaunted Dodgers lineup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 3. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Dodgers +1.5 (-170)
• Padres -1.5 (+142)

Moneyline

• Dodgers: +130
• Padres: -155

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Dodgers vs. Padres Probable Pitchers

• Los Angeles: Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA)
• San Diego: Michael King (13-9, 2.95 ERA)

Dodgers vs. Padres How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 8
• Time: 9:08 p.m. EST
• Venue: Petco Park
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• Series: Tied 1-1

Dodgers vs. Padres Key Players to Watch

Los Angeles Dodgers

Walker Buehler: Coming back from Tommy John, Walker Buehler has struggled in 2024, but he can turn all of that around with a strong postseason. Buehler allowed 16 homers in 16 starts in the 2024 regular season, but he did look slightly better in September, posting a 4.44 ERA in five starts. He held San Diego to one run in five innings in his last outing of the regular season. 

San Diego Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.: So, Tatis is still one of the best players in baseball – in case you forgot. The Padres star has three homers in four playoff games so far in 2024, hitting 9-for-14 with seven runs scored and five runs batted in. He’s a nightmare for any pitching staff to deal with right now. 

Dodgers vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Are we going to watch the Dodgers lose in the NLDS again?

This Game 3 matchup does not line up well for Los Angeles, as Buehler has been awful in 2024, allowing three or more runs in 12 of his 16 outings, and now he has to go toe-to-toe with King. 

The Padres ace was elite over the final three months of the regular season, posting a 2.07 ERA in 13 starts, leading San Diego to a 8-5 record in those games. He then turned in arguably his best performance of the year in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card against the Braves. 

With the San Diego offense already putting up 15 runs in two games in this series, I’m worried about the Dodgers getting through the opening innings unscathed with Buehler on the bump. 

King allowed just one unearned run across 12 innings in his final two starts against the Dodgers in the regular season. Overall, the Padres went 19-12 in his outings while the Dodgers were just 9-7 when Buehler took the mound.

I’ll back the home team in Game 3. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-148)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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