Joey Gallo Picked the Worst Time to Lay Down a Bunt

He picked the worst time to lay down a bunt.

Twins outfielder Joey Gallo is one of the most confounding players in baseball, and he made one of the most confounding plays of the season on Sunday. 

Gallo is having a very weird season. He has a slash line of .179/.298/.459, with 17 home runs and 105 strikeouts in 255 plate appearances. His strikeout rate of 41.2% is the highest among players with at least 150 plate appearances. But by OPS+ and wRC+, he’s actually an above-average hitter. 

What those numbers illustrate is clear: Gallo’s strength is his power. More than half of his hits this season are home runs. If he’s able to make contact, there’s a decent chance the ball is going to fly over the fence. So why, with two outs in 11th inning of Sunday’s game against the White Sox, did Gallo decide to lay down a bunt? 

Two-out bunt with Joey Gallo is an interesting choice pic.twitter.com/OBQk3AYFAE

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 23, 2023

A two-out bunt is always a bad idea, but it’s an especially bad idea with two outs and two runners on in a tie game in the 11th. Gallo doesn’t put the ball in play often, but you figure if his batting average is .179 then he’s got about an 18% chance of driving in the winning run with a hit in that situation. What are the chances of driving in that run with a bunt, though? Pretty close to zero, probably, but definitely less than 18%. 

Gallo is actually a very good bunter historically. Because he’s such an extreme pull hitter, he used to be able to take advantage of defensive shifts by bunting the ball toward third base and picking up easy singles. But with the new limits on defensive shifts, Gallo can’t do that anymore. In Sunday’s game, there was no open area of the field for him to bunt toward, so what was he thinking? 

Gallo’s questionable decision didn’t end up hurting the Twins too much. They went on to win in the 12th inning.