NFLytics: Joe Burrow is being asked to do it all
Following their loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl, the Cincinnati Bengals seemed to understand that they would need to be better in 2022 in order to repeat 2021’s results.
They beefed up an offensive line that ranked 25th by PFF by adding La’el Collins, Ted Karras and Alex Cappa this offseason with the aim of better protecting franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, who somehow produced an NFL best 8.6 yards per attempt while under pressure en route to the AFC North title. It doesn’t take an analytics genius to figure out that putting up prime Kurt Warner numbers under duress is unsustainable.
Indeed Burrow’s efficiency while pressured has dropped off this year. He’s down to 6.2 yards per attempt and the revamped offensive line is clocking in at 25th by PFF’s metrics again.
The former No. 1 overall draft pick has still played tremendously good football overall. He ranks third in total passing yards, sixth in PFF grade and fifth in quarterback rating. The Bengals have the sixth best scoring offense in the NFL. They’re eighth in the percentage of drives in which they produce points and fourth in Expected Points Added in the passing game — a higher mark than last year.
Since there’s no better indicator of team success than how well they pass the football, it would seem that Cincinnati’s arrow is pointing up as we head into the second half of the season. But there is a concerning trend from the Bengals lurking in the numbers: They ask Burrow to do everything.
Cincinnati has not only relied on their third-year QB to throw the fourth most passes in the NFL, they have leaned heavily on his ability to convert the most difficult situations. Based on his talent it’s certainly possible that he could continue doing so but the Bengals more likely need to improve in the most sustainable places and give Burrow more support in order to have a chance to battle the beasts of the AFC.
How do we evaluate how much is being put on the plate of a quarterback? We can start with how often their coach dials up passing plays on early downs. It stands to reason that teams with the most unstoppable quarterbacks will push the “pass” button over and over to drive their offense and that bears out in the numbers.
You can see below from the football data website rbdsm.com/stats that only the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes throw more often on early downs (adjusted for game situation).
In nearly every situation you can imagine, the Bengals are passing more than the league average.
With a QB of Burrow’s talent, nobody would argue that it’s a bad idea to Let Burrow Cook but it hasn’t been working as well as some of the other teams who deploy the passing game similarly.
In terms of early-down passing efficiency, the Bengals rank only ahead of the Lions, Colts and Steelers in Expected Points Added per drop-back.
It isn’t surprising to see clubs like the 49ers and Titans toward the top of pass efficiency because they only throw when it’s favorable but in terms of teams with similar pass rates the Bengals lag way behind the Bills and Chiefs.
Also note from the above chart how Cincinnati has struggled to run the football efficiently. They average just 4.0 yards per carry (26th) and rank 21st in total yards.
One thing that can make life easier on a quarterback is running play-action passes on early downs but Burrow has the second lowest play-action percentage in the NFL (17.8%) and he’s 23rd in QB rating when using play-action, per PFF. To demonstrate how much QB rating with play-action is a coaching/system stat, Taylor Heinicke led the NFL in play-action rating last season. Daniel Jones is using play-action 38% of the time with a 108.9 QB rating this year but when he doesn’t have a play-fake his rating drops to 77.0.
The Bengals’ star quarterback doesn’t have an effective screen game to boost him up either. Burrow is 16th in screen yards this year and 22nd in the percentage of drop-backs that are screens.
So Burrow isn’t getting much help from his offensive line, running game or play-actions/screens to create easy completions.
How is he still playing winning football? Because he’s dominating the most difficult situation for quarterbacks: Third down.
Despite having the 11th most third downs in the NFL, Burrow’s Bengals are keeping drives moving, converting a whopping 49.6%, third best in the NFL. They are No. 1 in EPA per play on third down. Burrow has a preposterous 147.0 rating on third downs with between 7-9 yards to go and 151.9 on third and 10-plus.
Does that speak to his talent? You betcha. But it’s also not easy to keep doing week after week as a sustainable model, particularly with superstar receiver Ja’Marr Chase out.
Burrow’s plight tells us a couple things about quarterbacks. The first being that circumstances for QBs can be wildly different from team to team. It also tells us that if Burrow can thrive when things are stacked against him like this, he deserves to be considered in the same air as the best players at his position in the NFL because nothing is coming easy and the Bengals still have an offense good enough to compete with the big boys.
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