Revisiting what Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said Nov. 2 and the Rudy Gobert problem

All of the data confirms what fans are watching: Rudy Gobert is not the same player he was and it's on Finch and the Wolves to figure out what's holding him back.

It's been nearly two months since Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch said his team was struggling on offense because of "big ripples" from the blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert. 

In the Nov. 2, Finch admitted that the team wasn't gelling as fast as he'd hoped. 

"Offensively, we're behind where I thought we would be. I thought we'd be a little further ahead. When I start looking at it, we dropped a big stone in a puddle and we've got some big ripples right now," Finch explained. "We need to keep working on it and figuring out some new concepts that are probably going to put our players in slightly better positions than we have been putting them in."

Things have changed significantly since then. Karl-Anthony Towns hasn't played in a month because of a calf injury and ailments have kept Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin out of the rotation for an extended stretch. 

"No one's going to win an NBA championship in October or November or even December. It just doesn't happen," Finch said Nov. 2. 

This just in: January arrives on Sunday. 

The season is 34 games old – 41.4% of the 82-game grind – and Minnesota still hasn't figured out how to make it work consistently. Defensively, they're better with Gobert. Offensively, they're discombobulated with Gobert. 

Because the Wolves (16-18) are just 2.5 games behind sixth place Sacramento it's not time to panic, but there's no debate that the panic button can been seen in the distance and they are speeding towards it. 

The loss to Miami Monday night is the biggest blemish on Gobert's 2022-23 season. The Heat didn't have Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo nor Dewayne Dedmon, yet Gobert was outplayed by a bunch of backups and wound up on the bench while Finch went with Naz Reid for most of the final 4 minutes, 30 seconds of the game. 

Gobert finished the night with 10 points and eight rebounds while seldom-played rookie Orlando Robinson had 15 points and nine rebounds. 

Rudy Gobert vs Orlando Robinson (two way) na partida entre Timberwolves x Heat ontem a noite: pic.twitter.com/bVVUD9BzIj

— Coast to Coast Brasil | NBA (@brasilcoast2) December 27, 2022

Making matters more depressing for Timberwolves fans is the elite defensive production of rookie center Walker Kessler, whom Minnesota drafted and traded to the Jazz in the humongous package for Gobert. Kessler, remember, was the national defensive player in the year in college last season. 

Been a longtime defender of Rudy Gobert…

but this is a disaster pic.twitter.com/UBqXUMjHQO

— Lucas Burns (@nba_indepth) December 27, 2022

Like in Utah, the defensive scheme with Gobert on the floor attempts to direct opposing players to the rim where Gobert is waiting to shut them down. It doesn't work as well against great 3-point shooting teams, but when Miami attacked the rim they did so without Gobert putting up much of a fight. 

Good to see Gabe back in the swing of things...9 of his 11 points in the 4th quarter. pic.twitter.com/PLou3g96Yn

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) December 27, 2022

At the beginning of March last season, Gobert was No. 1 in the NBA in nine different categories, according to FanSided.

• No. 1 with 14.8 rebounds per game
• No. 1 with 2.3 blocks per game
• No. 1 with 70.4 field goal percentage
• No. 1 with 70.8 2-point field goal percentage
• No. 1 with 70.4 effective field goal percentage
• No. 1 with 72.5 true shooting percentage
• No. 1 with 101.8 defensive rating
• No. 1 with 25.3 total rebound percentage
• No. 1 with 36.8 defensive rebound percentage

Here's where he ranks in those nine categories this season: 

• No. 2 with 12.1 rebounds per game
• No. 18 with 1.2 blocks per game
• No. 2 with 66.4 field goal percentage
• No. 4 with 67.2 2-point field goal percentage
• No. 2 with 66.4 effective field goal percentage
• No. 3 with 68.3 true shooting percentage
• No. 21 with 110 defensive rating (among regular starters)
• No. 3 with 21.3 total rebound percentage
• No. 7 with 28.9 defensive rebound percentage

The rebounding numbers are still strong but his shooting efficiency, blocks and defensive rating are all down. Last year he posted a 137 offensive rating and 103 defensive rating. This year his offensive rating is 130 and his defensive rating is 110. 

More concerning is that after finishing fifth in the NBA with a 6.2 block percentage last season, his 2022-23 block percentage has dipped to 3.5% (21st in the league). His block percentage has never been lower than 4.8% in his 10-year career. 

Perhaps the most egregious drop in production is found in Gobert's 1.3 defensive win shares through 29 games, putting him on pace to finish with 3.4 defensive win shares, which basically means his defense has won 1.3 games for the Wolves this season. 

Last year he was third in the NBA behind Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic with 4.3 defensive win shares. 

A drop from 4.3 to 3.4 is significant, essentially suggesting that he was 21% more valuable on defense last season than he has been this season. The drop is even more staggering compared to the defense win shares he's posted in previous seasons. 

• No. 1 with 5.2 DWS in 2020-21
• No. 3 with 4.3 DWS in 2019-20
• No. 2 with 5.7 DWS in 2018-19
• No. 10 with 3.9 DWS in 2017-18 (only played 56 hames)
• No. 1 with 6.0 DWS in 2016-17
• No. 17 with 3.8 DWS in 2015-16
• No. 8 with 4.3 DWS in 2014-15

All of the data confirms what fans are watching: Rudy Gobert is not the same player he was and it's on Finch and the Wolves to figure out what's holding him back. And they better do it fast because the Wolves are rapidly nearing the panic button.