10 reasons Twins fans should be nervous about the playoffs
With three weeks to go in the regular season, the postseason picture is becoming clearer for the Minnesota Twins. But while most fan bases are optimistic about an October run – especially with MLB's 12-team playoff format – Twins fans have a right to be on edge.
With an 18-game postseason losing streak burned into their memory, there are several reasons why Twins fans could be in a state of panic next month. Here are some logical reasons to be concerned...
1. The Sonny Gray blow-up inning
Sonny Gray has served as the ace of the Twins staff and could be a dark horse to contend for the Cy Young Award. But for as good as Gray has been this year, he has been prone to the blow-up inning after his first time through the order.
Gray has a pristine 5.07 strikeout-to-walk ratio and allows a .547 OPS the first time through the order but those numbers rise to a 2.62 K/BB ratio and a .649 OPS the second time through the order. Mix in an 11 percent walk rate the third time through the order and Gray seems to waver the deeper he goes into games.
Perhaps that's why Rocco Baldelli has had a quick hook on Gray during games. But then again...
2. Rocco Baldelli making the wrong decision
...It's not like Baldelli has a great track record with in-game decisions.
We've all watched a Twins game where a left-hander is due up and the bullpen goes to a different arm to get him out. When Baldelli tries to pull a "Gotcha" moment by substituting a right-hander, it can often be to the detriment of his own team.
Think of Edouard Julien coming up with a pair of runners on and being replaced by Kyle Farmer. Or pinch-hitting Joey Gallo when the Twins just need to make contact.
Then there's the pitching decisions. Baldelli infamously pulled Kenta Maeda and Jose Berríos after both pitchers were cruising during their 2020 Wild Card Series with the Houston Astros and also went to Cody Stashak in Game 1 of the 2019 ALDS before he served up a pair of back-breaking home runs to DJ LeMahieu and Brett Gardner.
With memories like this, it's hard to trust Baldelli...
3. The rest of the bullpen
...Especially considering the state of the Twins bullpen.
The Twins bullpen has been solid this season but has its fair share of concerns. Griffin Jax is a credible reliever who tends to give up plenty of bleeders through the infield. Caleb Thielbar is a reliable left-hander who is also allowing a career-high 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Dylan Floro, Josh Winder and Brent Headrick don't inspire much confidence and even if young pitchers Louie Varland and Kody Funderburk make the roster, both of them could find themselves in a Stashak-like situation.
4. Emilio Pagan melting under pressure
Even the Twins' best relievers have a tendency to fall apart when it matters the most.
Pagán has crumbled in high-leverage situations, allowing a .539 slugging percentage and a .865 OPS in 50 plate appearances. But he's been steady as they come in low-leverage spots allowing a .281 slugging percentage and a .531 OPS in 132 plate appearances.
The Twins have done a good job making sure that Pagán has come in more low-leverage spots but he's also been their best reliever, bringing a level of temptation to put him into a critical situation.
Every reliever has their ups and downs but it seems like Pagán's downs hurt the Twins more than any other reliever in the bullpen.
5. Jhoan Duran melting down
Let's say the Twins get through the gauntlet of bad decisions and relievers and get the ball to Jhoan Duran. With the hardest fastball in the majors, this seems like it would be a good thing but his recent performance suggests it could be a white-knuckle experience.
Duran was dominant in the first half of the season, allowing a .174/.278/.287 batter's line to opposing hitters but those numbers have gone up in the second half with a batter's line of .273/.333/.421.
While Duran's strikeout per nine innings (13.1) and K/BB ratio (5.33) have increased since the break, he's given up more hits, letting opponents find their way back into games.
Duran isn't leaving the closer's role anytime soon and he still can be a dominant arm. But this could bring flashbacks of Joe Nathan, who was a dominant closer in his own right in the 2000s but had multiple October meltdowns at the beginning of the Twins' losing streak.
6. The offense goes ice cold
The Twins have done a good job of elevating themselves to a respectable offense in the second half of the season but there are still moments when they go cold as a team.
Sunday's loss to the Mets was a perfect example as Pablo López struck out a career-high 14 batters but the Twins couldn't scratch across a run against Tylor Megill, who entered the game with a 5.28 ERA in 21 starts.
If anything, this is a callback to previous Twins playoff failures as they haven't scored more than four runs in a playoff game since Game 4 of the 2004 ALDS. If the offense goes cold, those demons will come to the front of the minds of Twins fans.
7. Carlos Correa with runners in scoring position
One of the reasons Twins fans were excited when Correa originally signed with Minnesota prior to the 2022 season was his sterling track record in the postseason but that could be a distant memory thanks to his struggles with runners in scoring position.
Correa is hitting .200/.326/.339 with two homers and 42 RBI in 141 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season and is hitting just .236/.344/.352 with three homers and 72 RBI in 262 plate appearances with RISP since coming to Minnesota.
Correa's bout with plantar fasciitis is also concerning as it might be causing his career-worst season at the plate and his MLB-leading 29 double-play groundouts.
While Jim Rice's record of 36 GIDPs from 1984 may be safe, it's clear no Twins rally is safe from Correa this season.
8. A left-hander on the mound
There are a lot of things that have derailed the Twins offense this season but one of the biggest issues has been their ability to hit left-handed pitching.
The Twins' .714 OPS against left-handers ranks 19th in the majors and some of the young players including Julien (.452 OPS vs. left-handers), Alex Kirilloff (.470) and Matt Wallner (.479) have struggled against southpaws.
If an opposing team is paying attention, they might load up on left-handers for the playoff run in order to take their chances with some of the Twins less potent players.
9. Falling 0-1 in a series after battling an ace
The Twins' starting rotation is the best they've had in nearly a decade but it may not be enough to counter a team that possesses a true ace.
With the Twins likely to face the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays or Texas Rangers in the Wild Card round, each team has an ace that can get them off to a good start and put the pressure on the Twins to get back into the series.
Think of the Twins matching up with the Rangers and Max Scherzer. Or the possibility of facing Luis Castillo and the Mariners. Or maybe the Twins will run into Kevin Gausman of Toronto, which could really turn stomachs faster than lutefisk.
For the reasons we mentioned, none of these matchups are an ideal scenario and could lead to the biggest reason to panic.
10. The 18-game playoff losing streak
We could have named this article "18 reasons Twins fans will panic in the playoffs" because that is the length of the longest postseason losing streak in men's major professional North American sports.
ESPN's David Schoenfield noted that if we used straight 50/50 odds, the chances of losing 18 straight playoff games are about 1 in 261,985, meaning at some point the pendulum will swing the other way.
But this is the life of a Twins fan since Shannon Stewart robbed Hideki Matsui in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS. The Twins make the wrong decision or they wind up on the wrong side of a bad call. We could have even said that Phil Cuzzi is one reason by himself after he blatantly called Joe Mauer's double a foul ball during the 2009 ALDS.
Everything about this streak suggests that the Twins are cursed in October and until the streak ends, it's just going to make everyone nervous heading into the playoffs.
