5 questions the Twins need to answer before the trade deadline
With a few days to go until Tuesday's MLB trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins seem to be in good shape.
At 54-51, the Twins hold a 1.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the American League Central. They also have a 73.3 percent chance to win the division, according to FanGraphs, and the second-easiest remaining schedule according to Tankathon.
With Jorge Polanco's return from the injured list on Friday and the returns of Caleb Thielbar, Brock Stewart and Royce Lewis on the horizon, the Twins have plenty of reinforcements coming for the final stretch.
Still, the Twins need to consider several questions regarding their roster heading into the deadline and while some are immediate needs, others are long-term issues that could affect the team in 2023 and beyond.
What should the Twins do with Sonny Gray?
Trading an All-Star at the trade deadline isn't something a contending team should do, but it may be something the Twins have to consider in the case of Sonny Gray.
Gray has been the ace of the Twins' staff, going 4-4 with a 3.22 ERA this season. While his numbers helped earn his third All-Star selection, they're also deceiving as Gray hasn't won a game since Apr. 30.
Gray is likely to remain with the Twins for the rest of the season but his status beyond 2023 is unclear. A pending free agent, the Twins could give him a one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer this offseason but he's unlikely to accept according to The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman.
If that happens, the Twins would get a draft pick at the tail end of the first round in next year's draft when he signs with another team. This would be equal to what the Twins gave up in Chase Petty – who was the 26th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft – when they traded for Gray.
However, Gray also hinted at retirement during last month's All-Star Game.
"Wouldn't shock me if I didn't play any more after this year," Gray told Twins MLB.com reporter Do-Hyoung Park. "Wouldn't shock me. Do I want to? Do I think I can? Absolutely. And I can at a very, very high level. It's not about the money. It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it."
If Gray retires, the Twins could be left empty-handed and miss out on an opportunity to add a bat or restock a farm system that was ravaged at last year's trade deadline. With The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reporting that Twins starters have drawn interest ahead of the deadline, Gray is a name that could surprisingly be involved in a deal.
How long should the Twins stick with Joey Gallo and Max Kepler?
One of the biggest frustrations of Twins fans has to be their loyalty to Joey Gallo and Max Kepler, with both hitters are mired in mediocre to miserable seasons.
Kepler has drawn the disdain of the Twins fan base after failing to recapture his break out 2019 season. While he's hitting .282/.333/.518 with seven homers and 20 RBI over his last 32 games, his overall numbers of .229/.291/.430 with 14 homers and 38 RBI have been a disappointment.
Mix in some other factors such as failing to execute a double steal last May and a reported refusal to play center field and it's fair to wonder why Kepler is still on the roster. But Kepler's struggles are nowhere near as bad as Gallo's.
Fans of the old National League rules have to be thrilled with Gallo in the No. 9 spot in the batting order as the 29-year-old is hitting .179/.293/.450 with 17 home runs and 32 RBI and 113 strikeouts in 266 plate appearances this season. Things have gotten even worse lately as Gallo is hitting .111/.200./.306 with 22 strikeouts (but two homers!) in his last 40 plate appearances.
With Gallo a pending free agent and the Twins unlikely to pick up Kepler's $10 million option next season, it's fair to wonder how long they'll continue to roll with their corner outfielders with Matt Wallner and the potential of a trade deadline acquisition waiting in the wings.
Are hitters starting to figure out Joe Ryan?
One of the best deadline deals for the Twins' front office was sending Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays for Joe Ryan. While Ryan has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter, his recent results are a disturbing trend.
Ryan's start to the season was All-Star worthy, going 8-4 with a 2.80 ERA in his first 10 starts but things took a turn for the worse when he allowed five home runs in a June 27 loss to the Atlanta Braves.
There's no shame in getting tagged by one of the best lineups in baseball, but the Braves seem to have found something that the rest of the league couldn't. Ryan has since allowed 13 home runs and an Ohtani-like .697 slugging percentage over his last six starts (28.1 innings).
Ryan has particularly had trouble with the first batter of the game, as leadoff hitters have gone 4-for-6 with three home runs and a double in his last six starts.
Ryan had a similar stretch last season, going 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA and allowing 13 home runs from June 14 to Aug. 15 but the Twins can't afford him to continue this trend for long if they hope to stay in contention.
Is Jhoan Duran starting to wear out?
Duran is the key component of the Twins bullpen, posting a 2.66 ERA and collecting 17 saves in 38 games this year but his recent workload and performance suggest that he could use some help.
Duran started the season on fire, posting a 1.17 ERA and holding hitters to a .147/.247/.240 batter's line over his first 21 appearances but hitters have gotten the best of the right-hander lately, tagging him with a 4.58 ERA and hitting .254/.354/.433 over his last 17 games.
A main culprit of this may be overuse. The Twins haven't been able to break open games at the plate and it's led to Duran being called upon frequently including seven of the Twins' 13 games after the All-Star break.
While Duran's fastball is still averaging 101.7 mph during that stretch, opponents have been able to size him up, logging an 8.8 percent barrel rate which is nearly double the 4.5 percent clip he posted last season.
This 101.8 mph pitch is tied for the 5th-fastest homered off of in the pitch-tracking era (2008), behind:
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 29, 2023
102.8 mph - Rafael Devers, 8/13/17
102.6 mph - Kurt Suzuki, 6/18/16
102.5 mph - Chas McCormick, 6/3/23
102.1 mph - Jeimer Candelario, 9/7/18 ** also a walk-off HR https://t.co/ErJf115PQZ
Perhaps the return of Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart can add a pair of arms to lessen Duran's workload but if either gets hurt or the Twins can't figure it out at the plate, it could be a troublesome factor down the stretch.
How much should the Twins invest in this team?
The Twins were in a similar position one year ago as they held a lead in the American League Central. With their eyes on the postseason, they acquired Tyler Mahle, Jorge López and Michael Fulmer – and finished 14 games out of first place.
The trades were absolute disasters that saw Fulmer leave in free agency, Mahle require Tommy John surgery, and López get swapped out for fellow struggling reliever Dylan Floro this week. Meanwhile, Yennier Cano has become the best reliever in baseball for the Baltimore Orioles while Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand appear to be long-term major leaguers for the Cincinnati Reds.
While some bad deals can't be the only reason teams shy away from making trades, it should make the Twins wonder if it's really worth investing in this team.
The Twins won 9 of their first 11 games out of the All-Star break but have lost three straight games including Friday night's game against the Kansas City Royals. Although they have a great shot at making the playoffs, their odds of a long run aren't great.
Dealing for a right-handed bat or a reliever could help the Twins win a playoff game but is it worth giving up a legitimate prospect such as Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez or Marco Raya?
If the answer is no, the Twins should ride it out and hope they can end their 18-game postseason losing streak. If it is, the Twins need to sort plenty of things out ahead of Tuesday's deadline.
