Can the Twins find an ace this offseason?
You can feel it every time Rocco Baldelli goes to the mound.
The Minnesota Twins have a lineup that should score enough runs to make a pitcher's life easier. They have a defense that should shave multiple runs off their ERA. Everything is there to contend in the American League, but here comes Baldelli again – in the fifth inning – to pull his starting pitcher.
The Twins starters were a problem again in 2022, ranking 20th in Major League Baseball with a 4.10 ERA. To add to the problem, Minnesota starters threw just 770.1 innings entering Monday – the lowest total in the American League.
With starters unable to pitch effectively or deep into games, the Twins relied on their bullpen to carry them. It ended terribly as Minnesota's relievers allowed 77 home runs (8th in MLB) and the Twins missed the playoffs.
Coming into this offseason, the Twins need to find a way to bridge that gap. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray should be locks for the rotation and Kenta Maeda should return after Tommy John surgery but none of those pitchers portray the traits of a No. 1 starter.
In fact the Twins haven't had someone like that since Feb. 2, 2008 – the day Johan Santana was traded to the New York Mets.
Santana was the definition of an ace for the Twins. During his eight years in Minnesota, he won two Cy Young awards, was a three-time All-Star, led the American League in strikeouts three times, and was a two-time ERA champion.
Santana's biggest quality, however, was his ability to go deep into games. From 2004 to 2007, Santana averaged 228 innings per season including an AL-high 233.2 innings in 2006.
By comparison, only seven Twins pitchers have recorded 200 innings or more in a season for the Twins since Santana was traded to the Mets.
Of course, the game has changed and all teams are having a quicker hook for their starters, but 23 pitchers have posted at least 180 innings this season while Ryan (147.0 IP) and Dylan Bundy (140.0) are the only Twins starters to throw at least 140 innings.
Effectiveness has also been a problem for Twins starters. Since Santana was traded, the Twins have had only 19 pitchers record an ERA lower than this year's average mark of 3.97 (min. 20 starts). Of those pitchers, only Ervin Santana (2016, 2017), Kyle Gibson (2015, 2018), Francisco Liriano (2010), Jose Berríos (2018, 2019) and Carl Pavano (2010) were able to do it while throwing a minimum of 180 innings.
So where can the Twins go to find an ace? Free agency would be a great place to start.
The Twins should have plenty of cash if Carlos Correa opts out of his three-year, $105.3 million contract. With an extra $35.1 million off the books, the Twins could dive into a market with several impact arms including Carlos Rodón.
Rodón went 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA and threw a career-high 178.0 innings for the San Francisco Giants this season. Although he'll be looking for a long-term contract, he could also sign another lucrative deal with opt-out clauses which could open the door for the Twins.
If the Twins are looking for some short-term help, they could go for a veteran with a proven track record like Jacob deGrom or Clayton Kershaw.
Both of them carry injury risk but could be worth it for a team dying for an ace.
deGrom went 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA but hasn't thrown over 100 innings since 2019. Kershaw also has been in and out of the lineup but went 11-3 with a 2.30 ERA in 121.1 innings for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season.
If the Twins want to find something better, they could aim for an ascending ace.
Perhaps Jameson Taillon could fit that mold as a soon-to-be 31-year-old that just went 14-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 171.1 innings for the New York Yankees. Sean Manaea was a potential trade target for the Twins this spring but had a disappointing season (7-9, 5.15 ERA, 152 IP) for the San Diego Padres.
New York's Taijuan Walker (12-5, 3.59 ERA, 153.0 IP) and Philadelphia's Noah Syndergaard (10-10, 3.94 ERA, 134.2 IP) also carry upside as former top prospects but the Twins have gone down this road before and came up empty-handed.
That leaves the trade market as a possibility. B/R's Sean Reuter listed San Diego's Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA, 128 IP), Cleveland's Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA, 200 IP) and Miami's Pablo Lopez (10-10, 3.75 ERA, 180 IP) but the Twins might not have enough top prospects to pull off a deal.
Minnesota has just three prospects in MLB.com's top 100 list and it's likely that Brooks Lee (No. 32), Royce Lewis (No. 58) and Emmanuel Rodriguez (No. 92) are all held in high regard heading into next season.
With other top prospects such as Austin Martin and Jordan Balazovic coming off rough seasons, the Twins may have to dig deep to land a promising arm.
Whatever the Twins have to do, landing an ace would be a worthwhile investment. Even if Correa leaves, the Twins still have a nucleus that could contend in a weak American League Central next season. That could stop Baldelli's fifth-inning trips to the mound and end a drought that has plaguing Minnesota pitching staffs for more than a decade.
