Minnesota Twins: 5 bold predictions for the 2023 season
The end of the 2022 season couldn't have been more disappointing for Twins fans but after a cold, snowy winter, optimism has sprung for the 2023 season.
The Twins will open their season on Thursday and there are plenty of reasons to believe they will be contenders in a weak American League Central Division. With a long year ahead of them, there are sure to be surprises and that leads many analysts to make bold predictions.
In this article, we'll make five of our own predictions to see whether the Twins are ready to make their way back to the playoffs or are in line for another disappointing season.
1. Max Kepler will have his best season since 2019
There were many players that enjoyed breakout seasons during the 2019 season but Max Kepler was one Twin that was destined for stardom. The right fielder hit .252/.336/.519 with a career-high 36 homers as part of the Bomba Squad but his career took a sharp turn over the past three seasons.
That downturn hit a new low last season where Kepler hit .227/.318/.348 with nine homers and a career-low .666 OPS. Things got so bad that Kepler wondered aloud whether he should have played soccer in his native Germany, but it appears there is a path for a better year in 2023.
Kepler's biggest enemy was the infield shift, which has been used on 90 percent of his pitches faced over the past three seasons. Last season alone, Kepler hit .239 against the shift and .227 overall despite an expected batting average of .266.
MAX. KEPLER. 💪💪
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) March 5, 2023
Moonshot puts the #AllTwins in front!! pic.twitter.com/gRcpQS6g9M
With the shift outlawed, Kepler should be able to use the entire field in the same way that led to his breakout in 2019. While he may not be able to match his 36 home runs, a 20-homer season with an OPS around .800 isn't out of the question and with an improved mindset, Kepler looks ready to get back on track this season.
2. Joe Ryan will become the Twins' ace
If there's a reason for pessimism this season, it's the Twins starting rotation. The Twins were able to acquire plenty of depth over the past calendar year but Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Pablo López are unlikely to ascend to ace status.
However, if there's one Twin that can make that jump, it's Joe Ryan.
Ryan had a promising debut for the Twins in the final month of the 2021 season but built off that success last year. In his first full season in the majors, he went 13-8 with a 3.55 ERA and those numbers could have been even better if it weren't for a midseason bout with COVID-19.
In his final five starts of the season, Ryan went 3-1 with a 2.20 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He went into the offseason with the focus of improving his breaking pitches and after spending most of the winter at Driveline – a data-driven baseball player development organization – he's shown an improvement in his off-speed pitches during Spring Training.
Joe Ryan's new split-changeup is pretty filthy. #Twins
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) March 24, 2023
Old changeup was only separating itself from his four-seam by 5-6".
New split-change is all the way down to 1,300 RPM, averaging 10" of separation from his four-seam, 0-2" iVB. Whiff-maker. @DrivelineBB
Here are a few... pic.twitter.com/LAZevwl4Rb
Perhaps labeling Ryan as the Twins' first true ace since Johan Santana is a stretch, but if he can turn into a top-of-the-rotation arm, it will be a positive development for a team starved for pitching.
3. Jhoan Duran will make the All-Star team
It was apparent from his first appearance that the Twins had something special with Duran and he parlayed that into an electric rookie season.
the jhoan duran experience pic.twitter.com/amYw87zqI3
— parker hageman (@HagemanParker) April 9, 2022
Duran posted a 1.86 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and 89 strikeouts in 67.2 innings but the most impressive part was his velocity. According to Baseball Savant, Duran led MLB with an average fastball velocity of 100.3 mph and had a top velocity of 104 mph.
Duran was used as a set-up reliever for most of his rookie season but is expected to become the closer this year. If he can handle the ninth-inning role, he should have the numbers to gain national notoriety and pave the way to his first All-Star appearance.
4. Jose Miranda will have the biggest breakout of any Twins hitter
The Twins should have plenty of impact bats with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton (when healthy) and newcomer Joey Gallo, but the player that could have the biggest breakout is Jose Miranda.
Miranda got off to a slow start but hit .330/.375/.549 with 12 homers and 13 doubles in 66 games in a three-month stretch from May 20 to Aug. 19. While Miranda came back to earth in the final month of the season, he went into the winter with the focus of improving his stamina.
With changes in his diet, Miranda appeared slimmer heading into Spring Training and showed his improvement on the field by hitting .278/.366/.778 with five home runs in 13 games.
Jose Miranda: Sneaky slugger. 💪@Franki2998 || #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/3vK7mSklLJ
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) March 25, 2023
The Twins have shown their own vote of confidence, installing Miranda as their everyday third baseman after trading Gio Urshela to the Angels this offseason. If Miranda can get down the defensive aspect of his new position, he could be on the way to a breakout season.
5. The Twins will finally win a playoff game
This is the free space for Twins predictions but there's a good chance that this could be the year they finally win a playoff game.
Half of that battle is getting to the postseason and it appears the Twins have a good shot. With the Chicago White Sox focused on slashing payroll and the Cleveland Guardians looking to take another step with a young roster, the Twins may have the best team in the division – at least on paper.
Even if they can't overtake the Guardians for first place, the American League should have a playoff spot open thanks to the seven-team format implemented last season. The New York Yankees and Houston Astros figure to be locks coming into the season but the Twins arguably stack up well against teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.
The extra playoff round also gives the Twins a chance to win a game, something they haven't done since 2004.
The Twins have plenty of work to be done if they want to contend for a World Series but for now, the bar is low and they should have the pieces to end the streak.
