Ranking the Twins' potential playoff opponents
The Minnesota Twins enter Sunday's game with the Texas Rangers holding a six-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the American League Central.
With the Guardians a team that is fading down the stretch, it looks probable that the Twins will return to the postseason for the first time since 2020, but fans will likely spend the next five weeks determining who they want to face in the playoffs.
This will be important as the Twins look to snap an 18-game postseason losing streak and earn their first playoff victory since 2004.
In this article, we'll rank the Twins' potential playoff opponents from 6th to 1st, starting with the teams the Twins would least like to face to the ones that would represent the best chance of them ending their playoff woes.
Criteria
Before we dive into the list, we need to establish what makes an ideal playoff performance for the Twins.
A team with plenty of left-handed pitching would be an issue for the Twins rank 22nd with an OPS of .701 against left-handers. A team that can also score runs in bunches could be a problem as the Twins enter Saturday ranking 15th with 4.5 runs per game.
There's also a glaring strikeout problem as the Twins are on pace to shatter the 2021 Chicago Cubs' record for most strikeouts in a season.
But the Twins could also benefit from a team that struggles on the road since they'll have home-field advantage in the Wild Card round by virtue of winning their division. This could be an even bigger bonus if the Twins can catch up to the AL West champion as the Rangers and Seattle Mariners are 5.5 games ahead of the Twins for the second seed in the American League.
The Twins could also run into a team that's fading or dealing with injuries down the stretch. While momentum has proved to be futile since the playoff streak began, a key injury to a potential opponent wouldn't hurt as they look for all of the good vibes they can handle.
6. Seattle Mariners (73-56)
When the Mariners lost to the Twins on July 24, they were a .500 team at 50-50. In 28 games since, they have a 22-6 record and have become the team that nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
Just about every problem the Mariners had one month ago has turned into an iron-clad strength during this stretch. The Mariners rank 11th with 4.76 runs per game this season but have averaged 5.8 runs over their last 28 games.
Julio Rodríguez experienced the sophomore slump in the first half but is hitting .397/.439/.669 (1.108 OPS) with seven homers and 29 RBI in the last 28 games.
These revelations have supported a pitching staff that has been strong throughout the year and is led by George Kirby, who ranks ninth in the MLB in strikeouts. With fellow strikeout artists George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, it's a better question of who wants to run into the Mariners in October.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (79-52)
The Rays are the least likely opponent for the Twins as they'll likely win the American League East and the top seed in the playoffs or be the fourth seed with a home series in the wild card round. But the possibility of the Rays fading is starting to grow after a pair of key losses.
Tampa Bay ace Shane McClanahan is out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and All-Star shortstop Wander Franco is on administrative leave amidst an investigation of an alleged relationship with a minor.
While the Rays rank fourth with 5.34 runs per game and own a 35-29 record on the road, they do not have a left-hander in their current starting rotation. Still, this is one of the best teams in baseball and a team the Twins won't want to see until deep into the playoffs.
4. Houston Astros (73-58)
If the season ended today, the Twins would matchup with the Astros in the Wild Card series. While this would give fans flashbacks of their 2020 playoff loss, it also wouldn't be a great matchup due to what the Astros bring to the table.
Houston ranks seventh in strikeouts this season and are led by left-hander Framber Valdez. The Astros added another strikeout artist by re-acquiring Justin Verlander at the trade deadline and have a tandem of Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier to round out their postseason rotation.
With Jose Altuve returning from injury, the Astros also have championship pedigree on their side along with a lineup that averages 4.85 runs per game (8th in MLB). The Astros are a difficult matchup and even more so if the Twins face them in the Wild Card round.
3. Boston Red Sox (69-61)
The Red Sox are currently 3.5 games behind Houston for the final Wild Card spot but could find their way into the sixth seed with a strong final stretch.
Boston has a strong lineup that ranks sixth with 4.98 runs per game but the Twins still have one of the best starting staffs to neutralize that and their rotation is exploitable, even with the presence of left-handers Chris Sale and James Paxton.
The Red Sox rank 14th in strikeouts this season and are just 20-18 in the second half. With a 33-32 record on the road, the Red Sox aren't an easy matchup but they are one that shouldn't stop the Twins from advancing past the first round.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (71-59)
The Blue Jays are almost a mirror image of the Twins despite playing in a tougher division and sporting a better record at this point of the season.
The Blue Jays are propelled by their pitching staff and rank second in strikeouts this season. Kevin Gausman leads the way as his 195 strikeouts rank only behind Atlanta's Spencer Strider for the most in MLB and Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrīos are also capable of racking up the Ks.
Despite their staff, the Blue Jays rank 17th with 4.43 runs per game and are just 20-18 since the All-Star break. Although Toronto sits 1.5 games behind Houston for the final Wild Card spot, they could be a common opponent for the Twins in the playoffs.
1. Texas Rangers (73-56)
Maybe its recency bias or the eight-game losing streak the Rangers endured until Saturday's win over the Twins, but it feels like the Rangers would be the best case scenario if the Twins met them in the playoffs.
The Rangers have been one of the best teams in baseball this year but hit the wall right after they lost Josh Jung to a broken thumb. Although the All-Star rookie plans to return by the end of the season there could be some rust by the time he returns to the field.
The Rangers do have some strengths, however, including a lineup that ranks third with 5.59 runs per game. With strikeout ace Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation and southpaw Jordan Montgomery in the rotation, Texas is loaded with four left-handers in the bullpen including Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman, Brock Burke and former Twin Martin Perez.
But the Rangers also are the only team on this list with a losing record on the road. With the Twins already beating the Rangers twice at Target Field ahead of Sunday, a playoff series with Texas would at least be entertaining and could be the best chance for the Twins to win a playoff game.
