Scenarios for the Twins to win the AL Central outright
What's it going to take for the Minnesota Twins to pass the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians to win the American League Central?
Entering play Thursday, the Guardians (76-65) are 4 games ahead of the White Sox (73-70) and 5 games up on the Twins (71-70). The Guardians and Twins each have 21 games left and the White Sox play 19 more.
Cleveland has won 60% of their games since finding themselves 40-41 on July 9. If they play at a .600 clip for the remaining 21 games, that equates to 12-13 wins, which sets their win total at 88 or 89.
If that happens, the Twins would have to win 18 or 19 of their final 21 games (and get some help from the White Sox) to win the division outright.
FanGraphs gives the Twins a 6.1% chance to win the Central. It's bleak.
Here's what Twins need to do to win the division outright (without having to play a Game 163).
If the Twins go 21-0 and finish 92-70, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 15-6 or worse AND the White Sox go 18-1 or worse.
If the Twins go 20-1 and finish 91-71, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 14-7 or worse AND the White Sox go 17-2 or worse.
If the Twins go 19-2 and finish 90-72, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 13-8 or worse AND the White Sox go 16-3 or worse.
If the Twins go 18-3 and finish 89-73, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 12-9 or worse AND the White Sox go 15-4 or worse.
If the Twins go 17-4 and finish 88-74, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 11-10 or worse AND the White Sox go 14-5 or worse.
If the Twins go 16-5 and finish 87-75, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 10-11 or worse AND the White Sox go 13-6 or worse.
If the Twins go 15-6 and finish 86-76, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 9-12 or worse AND the White Sox go 12-7 or worse.
If the Twins go 14-7 and finish 85-77, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 8-13 or worse AND the White Sox go 11-8 or worse.
If the Twins go 13-8 and finish 84-78, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 7-14 or worse AND the White Sox go 10-9 or worse.
If the Twins go 12-9 and finish 83-79, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 6-15 or worse AND the White Sox go 9-10 or worse.
If the Twins go 11-10 and finish 82-80, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 5-16 or worse AND the White Sox go 8-11 or worse.
If the Twins go 11-10 and finish 82-80, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 5-16 or worse AND the White Sox go 8-11 or worse.
If the Twins go 10-11 and finish 81-81, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 4-17 or worse AND the White Sox go 7-12 or worse.
If the Twins go 9-12 and finish 80-82, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 3-18 or worse AND the White Sox go 6-13 or worse.
If the Twins go 8-13 and finish 79-83, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 2-19 or worse AND the White Sox go 5-14 or worse.
If the Twins go 7-14 and finish 78-84, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 1-20 or worse AND the White Sox go 4-15 or worse.
If the Twins go 6-15 and finish 77-85, they make the playoffs if the Guardians go 0-21 AND the White Sox go 3-16 or worse.
It's an ugly picture but everything could look a lot prettier if the Twins take at least four of the five games against the Guardians in Cleveland Friday-Monday.
Winning four would net Minnesota three games in the standings, while winning five gets them five back and sets the stage for a dramatic final two weeks of the regular season.
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Title: Bring Me The Sports co-owner, editor Email: joe@bringmethenews.com Twitter: @JoeBMTN Education: Southwest Minnesota State University Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota Expertise: All things Minnesota sports Nelson has covered Minnesota sports for two decades, starting his media career in sports radio. He worked at small market Minnesota stations in Marshall and St. Cloud before joining one of the nation's highest-rated sports stations, KFAN-FM 100.3 in the Twin Cities. There, he was the producer of the top-rated mid-morning sports show with Minnesota Vikings announcer Paul Allen. His radio experience helped blossom a career as a sports writer, joining Minneapolis-based Bring Me The News in 2011. Nelson and Adam Uren became co-owners of Bring Me The News in 2018 and have since more than tripled the site's traffic and launched Bring Me The Sports in cooperation with the Sports Illustrated/FanNation umbrella. Nelson has covered the Super Bowl and numerous training camps, NFL combines, the MLB All-Star Game and Minnesota playoff games, in addition to the day-to-day happenings on and off the field of play. Nelson also has extensive knowledge of non-sports subjects, including news and weather. He works closely with Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard to produce a bevy of weather and climate information for Minnesota readers. Nelson helped launch and manage the Bring Me The News Radio Network, which provided more than 50 radio stations around Minnesota with daily news, sports and weather reports from 2011-17.