The Twins' bullpen issues are more than just bad luck
Griffin Jax woke up on a beautiful Southern California morning. He peered outside but he was blinded by the sun. After stumbling around, he stepped on a Lego that was left behind by the hotel cleaning service and burned his tongue after taking a sip of his coffee.
OK, none of this actually happened before the Twins' 5-4 loss to the Angels on Friday night, but it represents a troubling trend heading into the season.
The Twins bullpen is in trouble and in many ways it may seem like bad luck. But if the Twins are to contend in the American League this season, they need to fix what has become a leaky bullpen.
Twins relievers rank 15th with a 3.92 ERA but their problem has been protecting leads. The bullpen ranks second with 12 losses and their 11 blown saves are also tied for second behind the Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals. The latest loss came on Friday night when Jax couldn't hold onto a late lead against the Los Angeles Angels.
Jax has been used in high-leverage situations this season but has struggled with a 5.59 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. While any armchair manager would probably go somewhere else, Rocco Baldelli may be throwing him out there because the Twins might believe he is a victim of bad luck.
According to Baseball Savant, Jax is posting career lows in exit velocity allowed (87.7 mph), hard hit percentage (35.5%) and barrel rate (3.2%) this season, but he also isn't missing bats despite a chase rate in the 90th percentile of all relievers. Jax's whiff rate is in the 47th percentile of relievers and when batters aren't fouling pitches off, they're walking 9.9% of the time – the highest rate of Jax's career.
While the Twins could be dismissing it as bad luck, opponents are taking advantage in the same way as when Jax entered the game to protect a 4-3 lead on Friday night.
Jax led off the inning by striking out Matt Thaiss but allowed a single to Matt Nieto down the right-field line. According to Statcast, Nieto's single had an expected average of .140 but there was still a man on when Mickey Moniak ripped a game-tying triple down the right-field line in the following at-bat.
After inducing a fielder's choice to Tyler Ward for the second out of the inning, Jax walked Shohei Ohtani to face Hunter Renfroe with two men on. With an 0-2 count, Renfroe flipped a single with an exit velocity of 75.3 mph to drive in the game-winning run.
Hold your horses 🐎#GoHalos pic.twitter.com/MhKkuf1qM8
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) May 20, 2023
With Jax also on the wrong end of a bad call in a loss to the Dodgers earlier this week, the Twins could shrug this off as bad luck with the belief that Jax will turn it around. But that's the same philosophy the Twins have used with Emilio Pagán.
One year ago, it was Pagán who was being victimized by bad luck. The right-hander posted favorable metrics with a 30.7% strikeout rate, a chase rate in the 83rd percentile and a whiff rate in the 84th percentile but hitters held a 9.8% barrel rate and a 44.8% hard-hit rate.
This led Baldelli to use Pagán frequently with hopes that he could figure it out. Those hopes never came to fruition as Pagán allowed 11 home runs, blew nine saves and posted a 5.24 ERA in his first 46 appearances. While he posted a 2.16 ERA in his final 13 appearances, it came as the Twins were fading from contention.
The Twins kept belief in Pagán by bringing him back this year and while his overall stats have been inflated by a pair of bad outings including Wednesday's loss to the Dodgers, he's seen a decline in his chase, whiff and strikeout rates this season.
JAMES OUTMAN IS A BAAAAD MAN. pic.twitter.com/45hbKxqwvr
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 17, 2023
Pagán and Jax aren't the only issues in the Twins bullpen. Jovani Moran's exit velocity allowed (85.6 mph) is in the 93rd percentile and his hard hit rate (26%) is in the 96th percentile among relievers, but his chase rate in the sixth percentile is producing a 13.4% walk rate.
Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Alcala are currently on the injured list and while Brock Stewart has been a pleasant surprise, he's a 31-year-old journeyman with a career 5.48 ERA.
The Twins can make adjustments by switching Jhoan Duran back into a multi-inning set-up role for Jorge López in the ninth but it creates a logistical problem managing Duran's workload. Even if the Twins decide to dive into the trade market, their checkered history indicates that whatever reliever they acquire will be far from a sure thing.
But whatever the Twins do, they can't chalk their struggles up to bad luck. Last year, the Twins' stubbornness made the division race tighter than it should have been, allowing the Guardians to get hot at the end of the season and win the American League Central.
With the Twins entering Saturday with a 2.5-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for first place in the division, the margin for error is less than it seems, which should create a sense of urgency to finally fix the bullpen.
