Could the Twins be sitting on a lights-out bullpen in 2023?
With the exception of Carlos Correa's wild free agency, the emphasis of the Twins' offseason has been upgrading the pitching staff.
It doesn't take an analytics master to tell you that the Twins rotation struggled last season, ranking 21st in ERA and 27th in innings pitched, but an even bigger problem was the performance of the bullpen.
Twins relievers ranked 16th in ERA in 2022 but served up 78 home runs, which ranked eighth among MLB bullpens. Still, there hasn't been a meaningful move to upgrade this unit and with less than a month before spring training, time is running out for solutions.
Before we go too far down the rabbit hole, we need to realize that relievers are incredibly fickle.
Take former Twins reliever Alex Colomé as an example. From 2015-19, he was one of the most reliable relievers in baseball, posting a 3.13 ERA and 126 saves during stints with the Tampa Bay Rays, Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox.
Those numbers went out the window the past two seasons as Colomé posted a 4.15 ERA in 67 appearances with the Twins in 2021 and a 5.74 ERA in 53 games with the Colorado Rockies last season.
Another former Twins reliever with varying success is Trevor May. The right-hander was one of the Twins' top relievers from 2018-20, posting a 3.19 ERA in 113 appearances. He parlayed that success into a two-year deal with the New York Mets and pitched well in his first season, going 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 68 appearances.
The wheels came off last season, however, with May posting a 5.04 ERA in 26 appearances and signing a one-year deal with the Oakland Athletics this winter.
Both of these pitchers have seen their numbers fall off going into their mid-30s but sometimes a stellar season can come out of nowhere.
David Robertson made 19 total appearances from 2019-21 before signing a one-year deal with the Chicago Cubs last offseason. The 37-year-old jumped in the time machine and posted a 2.23 ERA and 14 saves in 36 appearances to become one of the hottest names at last year's trade deadline.
Robertson became one of the top arms for the Philadelphia Phillies after he was traded at the deadline and helped the Phillies make a run to the World Series before signing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Mets this winter.
Life comes at you fast when you're a reliever, which is why the Twins are hoping for better things from Emilio Pagán.
The mention of Pagán triggers a hearty eye roll from Twins fans. He was Rocco Baldelli's top arm for high-leverage situations and that faith led to Pagán posting a 4.43 ERA and serving up 12 homers in 63 innings.
There was plenty of confusion when the Twins agreed to a one-year, $3.5 million deal to bring him back, but Pagán did post a 2.16 ERA and 21 strikeouts over his final 13 appearances. He also ranked in the 90th percentile in strikeout rate, 84th percentile in whiff rate, and 83rd percentile in chase rate, according to Baseball Savant.
None of this guarantees Pagán won't be on the leaderboard of home runs allowed next season as he's third with 32 homers allowed since the start of the 2020 season, but there's at least some cause for optimism.
The same goes for Griffin Jax, who is right behind Pagán with 30 homers allowed since 2020 but recently hit 100.1 mph during an offseason workout.
Twins MLB pitcher Griffin Jax with a 100.1 mph gray ball walking windup warming up for a mocap 👀 pic.twitter.com/MmagtblVaB
— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) December 8, 2022
Jax's Baseball Savant page contains even more red than Pagán's, placing in the 87th percentile in chase rate, 78th percentile in fastball velocity and 77th percentile in whiff rate.
The parade of high-velocity relievers doesn't stop there as the Twins are expected to get Jorge Alcala back after he was limited to two games last season due to a shoulder injury. In 2021, Alcala posted a modest 3.92 ERA in 59.2 innings but he also placed in the 96th percentile in chase rate and fastball velocity and the 86th percentile in walk rate.
Even if Pagán can't figure it out, the Twins could roll with a combination of Jax, Alcala and trade deadline pickup Jorge López to get the ball to Jhoan Duran.
Duran's rookie season couldn't have gone any better as he posted a 1.86 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 67.2 innings. His fastball averaged 100.8 mph and was the fastest among all major league relievers. He also had movement on all four of his pitches, leading to a chase rate in the 98th percentile and a whiff rate in the 94th percentile.
Paging through Baseball Savant shows the Twins pass the "there's a lot of red in there" eye test, but there are still some questions.
The Twins don't have much for left-handers as Jovani Morán and Caleb Thielbar are the only two listed on the active roster. Danny Coulombe could join that mix after he was hampered by a hip injury last season but the Twins could look to the outside to add an arm like Andrew Chafin, who posted a 2.83 ERA in 64 appearances with the Detroit Tigers last season.
This seems like nit-picking considering the Twins added Tyler Mahle at last year's trade deadline, acquired Pablo López in the Luis Arraez trade and should get Kenta Maeda back from shoulder surgery, but the bullpen will still be important considering none of these pitchers are considered to be an ace.
There have been a few teams featuring a middle-of-the-road rotation that have gone on to win the World Series, but there are some exceptions, including the 2015 Kansas City Royals.
That year, the Royals waded through the first five innings of games with a staff that featured Edison Volquez, Jeremy Guthrie and Danny Duffy but turned it over to a lights-out bullpen that included Wade Davis, Ryan Madson, Kelvin Herrera, and Greg Holland.
The Twins don't appear to have that at the moment, but it's possible they could have something close if all of their relievers hit. That could give them a quality bullpen and one that could pick up the slack for their rotation.
