Twins losing shocking number of games due to bad offense
On Saturday night, the Minnesota Twins (40-39) lost to the Detroit Tigers by a score of 3-2. The loss felt like a re-run for a Twins team that leads Major League Baseball with 11 losses when allowing three runs or fewer.
Tucked neatly inside those 11 games are common themes that have been amplified in close games – and those weaknesses are preventing the Twins from playing like a legitimate contender.
Way too many strikeouts
Entering play Monday, the Twins lead MLB with 807 strikeouts. That's 60 more punch-outs than the next worst team (San Francisco). The Twins also lead in every subsection of multi-strikeout games, leading to a major problem at the plate.
#MNTwins lineup leads MLB in games with ...
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) June 25, 2023
5+ strikeouts (77)
6+ strikeouts (73)
7+ strikeouts (70)
8+ strikeouts (63)
9+ strikeouts (57)
10+ strikeouts (43)
11+ strikeouts (36)
12+ strikeouts (24)
13+ strikeouts (17)
14+ strikeouts (13)
15+ strikeouts (9)
16+ strikeouts (5)
But just as much as strikeouts are an overall problem, they're a particular issue in tight games. In the 11 games allowing three runs are fewer, the Twins are averaging 10 strikeouts a game. This includes nine games of seven or more strikeouts and six games of 10 or more strikeouts.
An example of how putting the ball in play can help came in Sunday's win over the Tigers when Royce Lewis scored the game-tying run on an error by Nick Maton that was caused by a ground ball from Willi Castro. The sequence led to the 10th inning when Lewis snuck a ground ball through the infield to score Carlos Correa for the winning run.
Royce rollin’ #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/MGfNouKpgm
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 25, 2023
The strikeout is more prevalent in baseball but the Twins have taken it to an extreme. If they can cut back and put the ball in play, it could be the difference in these low-scoring games.
Not hitting for power
One of the reasons the Twins' front office built a strikeout-heavy lineup is because they believed they had enough power to offset contact issues. The problem is that it's just not happening.
Entering play Monday, the Twins rank 16th with a .403 slugging percentage and are below the league average of .407. These issues are amplified in the 11-game sample size where they've had six games with a slugging percentage under .200.
The Twins have also had two games with a slugging percentage under .100 in the sample size. On April 16, the Twins posted a .074 slugging percentage in a loss to the Yankees, and on May 7, the Twins posted a .037 slugging percentage in a loss to the Guardians.
Buxton, Gallo and Kepler woes
It's not surprising to find out that when teams lose, their players usually have a drop in production. But in the case of Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Joey Gallo, their struggles could be a main reason why the Twins lose low-scoring games.
Kepler's .504 OPS in losses is the fourth-worst on the team behind Eddy Julien (.387), Trevor Larnach (.421) and Kyle Farmer (.430). Joey Gallo is sixth on that list with a .528 OPS and Byron Buxton is 13th with a .607 OPS.
Although this trio's production in losses is bothersome, it's catastrophic in this 11-game sample size where they are hitting a combined 10-for-75 (.133 average) with one double, three home runs and a 38.6% strikeout rate.
Not beating up on bad pitchers
Sometimes a low-scoring defeat can come at the cost of an entertaining pitching duel, but outside of Sandy Alcantara and Gerrit Cole, the Twins haven't faced a string of elite arms on the mound.
The Twins have faced some quality arms in the 11-game sample size, including the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen and some established names such as Toronto's Kevin Gausman and José Berríos. But then there is a list of struggling pitchers that have looked like all-stars against Minnesota.
Triston McKenzie struck out 10 coming off the injured list in a loss to Cleveland on June 4. A baseball nut would have a hard time picking Trevor Williams (Washington) and Brad Keller (Kansas City) out of a lineup, and Detroit's Reese Olson entered Saturday's game with a 5.59 ERA before holding the Twins to one run over 5.1 innings.
Even Alcantara isn't at his Cy Young form, as he owns a 5.08 ERA this season. But against the Twins, he fired a complete game shutout on April 4. Minnesota lost that game 1-0.
Good teams jump on bad pitching and more often than not the Twins haven't been able to do that.
Faltering against the AL Central
Out of the 11-game sample size, five of the losses have come to teams in the American League Central. Two of the losses were to Cleveland, who enter play Monday just two games behind the Twins for the division lead.
You may think this is cherry-picking, but the Twins' season could be dramatically different if they won some of these games.
If the Twins turned all 11 games into wins, they would have the second-best league in the American League Central at 51-28. If the Twins won just the five games against divisional opponents, they would be 45-34 and have a nine-game lead over the Guardians.
One of the weakest divisions in baseball, the Twins have a good chance to reach the postseason despite their shortcomings. But if they can't find a way to win low-scoring games, that path will be a lot harder than it should be.
