Who will bat leadoff for the Twins this season?
When the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez they not only said goodbye to a fan favorite but they also created a gaping hole at the top of the batting order.
Arraez was a staple at the top of the Twins lineup, accumulating 795 plate appearances since making his debut in the 2019 season. In 728 at-bats, Arraez hit .309/.360/.401 with five homers and 58 RBI in the leadoff spot but didn't take over the role until he carved out consistent playing time over the past two seasons.
In 2021, Arraez led the Twins with 282 at-bats in the leadoff spot, hitting.312/.368/.394 with 21 RBI. In 2022, Arraez had a team-high 381 leadoff at-bats, hitting .299/.349/.404 with five homers and 31 RBI.
Arraez's production at the top of the lineup makes for some big shoes to fill, but the Twins have some quality options to replace him.
If the Twins are looking for experience, they can turn to Max Kepler. The 30-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career, hitting .227/.318/.348 with nine homers and 43 RBI in 115 games, but a return to the leadoff spot could bring some familiarity to his game.
Kepler has 689 career at-bats in the leadoff spot – the most of any position in the lineup. He also has a career .237/.326/.494 batter's line when hitting first with 45 home runs and 86 extra-base hits.
BOMBA NUMBER ONE.
— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) July 25, 2020
MAX KEPLER HOMERS ON THE FIRST PITCH OF THE SEASON!!!#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/ye3dJr13EY
It may seem risky considering how Kepler performed last season but with a return to health and the banning of the shift, Kepler could make a return to the top of the lineup.
The Twins could also try Byron Buxton, who was second on the team with 282 leadoff at-bats last season. The success of those at-bats varied as Buxton hit .217/.297/.525 with 17 homers and 30 RBI. He also channeled early 2000s leadoff hitter Jacque Jones, striking out 62 times – or just over 31 percent – of those at-bats.
Like Kepler, it's fair to wonder if that inconsistency was due to his injury woes. Buxton was in and out of the lineup after injuring his knee in the opening weeks of the season and couldn't replicate the .301/.346/.630 line with five homers he produced in 73 at-bats in the leadoff spot in 2021.
Byron Buxton has homered out of every batting order position in his career.
— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) March 5, 2023
1st - 24
2nd - 13
3rd - 8
4th - 3
5th - 7
6th - 4
7th - 9
8th - 9
9th - 21 https://t.co/6d9x0tdVHj pic.twitter.com/SD5ypWzkbm
There's also Buxton's speed that could come into play with MLB's new rules. With the bases going from 15 inches to 18 inches, the stolen base could make a comeback. Pitchers also have just one pickoff attempt (or disengagement) per at-bat, which could allow Buxton to create chaos when he gets on base.
This assumes Buxton can stay healthy and that his speed continues to be a weapon, but if neither Kepler or Buxton can assume the leadoff role, it's hard to tell where the Twins will go.
Michael A. Taylor is expected to back up Buxton in center field and has 95 career stolen bases, but he's produced a .218/.250/.379 line in 340 career leadoff at-bats.
Edouard Julien leads the Twins with nine lead-off at-bats in spring training, but he's expected to begin the season in the minors.
Joey Gallo is second on the list with four leadoff at-bats, but he has just six career leadoff at-bats with a homer and three strikeouts.
Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco have established themselves in the middle of the order and Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon are likely to fill out the bottom of the lineup as reserves.
It brings an interesting dilemma for the Twins to solve this offseason, but it could be the difference in jump-starting a lineup that finished 17th with 4.3 runs per game last season.
