Why it makes sense for the Twins to trade Luis Arraez
It's not a secret that the Minnesota Twins need pitching. Outside of re-signing Carlos Correa, finding a front-line starter is one of the team's biggest needs this offseason.
To find a pitcher, the Twins might have to get creative. Bring Me The Sports confirmed through a source Monday that All-Star infielder Luis Arraez could be available in a trade for pitching and as you can imagine, the reaction to this report didn't sit well.
Absolutely not, imagine this #mntwins team without Luis Arraez https://t.co/rEaIKnvXS1
— Alex Micheletti (@AlexMicheletti) December 5, 2022
I don't think there's a 'win-win' scenario for #MNTwins in a Luis Arraez trade with fans.
— Andrew Luedtke (@andluedtke) December 5, 2022
Either, they trade him and get back a mid-tier SP (fans will assuredly be underwhelmed) or they have to package Luis with a top prospect to even have a shot at an 'ace'. pic.twitter.com/vmxEHn88tY
Arraez wouldn’t even be close to bringing an ace-level pitcher to Minnesota.
— Pitch Profiler (@pitchprofiler) December 5, 2022
I’d be happy if he got us an SP2 but at this point I think he’s more valuable to the Twins over another SP2. https://t.co/PBYAlCuE62
This all makes sense. Arraez is one of the most popular players on the team and just won his first batting title. At age 25, this could be the beginning of a tremendous career in a Twins uniform and trading him could take a big figure out of the clubhouse.
At the same time, Arraez's value may never be higher and he could be the chip the Twins need to finally fix their issues on the mound.
Take a look at Arraez's profile. In 2022, he hit .316/.375/.420 with eight home runs and 49 RBI. The home runs and RBI were both career highs and his batting average was a high-water mark in a season where he's played at least 100 games.
With Arraez showing his versatility at first base, Arraez could be considered one of the most important Twins to the lineup, but with the rule changes coming in 2023, his actual value could be ready to decline.
MLB has banned the use of defensive shifts in 2023, requiring two infielders on both sides of the bag. According to Matt Williams of NBC Sports Edge, the infield shift has been a part of the game since the 1900s, but exploded in popularity as sabermetric-driven teams looked to gain an advantage in the late 2000s.
The use of the shift has gotten out of control in recent years with teams deploying three infielders to one side of the field and at times using alignments with four or five outfielders. As you can imagine, MLB's collective batting average declined from .251 in 2014 to .243 this past season.
While it can be argued that trying to hit through the shift could help Arraez hit for an even higher average, there are other players that could also experience a jump, making Arraez a more replaceable commodity.
One of those players is Twins outfielder Max Kepler, who hit a career-high .252 in 2019 but has hit just .219 over the past two seasons. Even if he only gets back to what he hit four years ago, his power makes him a more valuable asset than a singles hitter at the top of the lineup.
It also comes down to the Twins' options in free agency. Pitching is in high demand across the league and teams are shelling out big-money contracts to get it.
The Texas Rangers forked over a five-year, $185 million contract to Jacob deGrom last weekend despite the fact he has started just 26 games over the past two seasons. Justin Verlander, who will turn 40 in February, inked a two-year, $86 million deal with the New York Mets and Clayton Kershaw signed a one-year, $20 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers despite battling through various injuries the past few seasons.
There's a group of Twins fans that are screaming "Those cheap Pohlads!" but it's an exercise in spending smarter, not harder.
Free-agent pitchers usually have years of wear and tear on their arms and that abuse often leads to missed time due to injury or poor performance. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't be in on a player like Carlos Rodón, but it also means they can't throw big-money contracts around hoping it will fix their issues on the mound.
With few major-league-ready pitchers in the organization, the Twins have to consider the trade market and there are few players that are more expendable than Arraez.
The question that remains is who the Twins could get for Arraez. It's unlikely that Arraez alone would net the kind of game-changing ace the Twins have needed since Johan Santana left town, but they could acquire an up-and-coming starter or a solid arm to slot into the middle of the rotation.
At the moment, the Twins would rely on either Sonny Gray – who was in and out of the lineup due to injuries last season – or Joe Ryan to anchor the top of the rotation. Bailey Ober or Josh Winder could slot in toward the bottom half but both players are coming off their own injuries.
Perhaps packaging an All-Star like Arraez could help the Twins land an upgrade in their rotation and also add more power to a lineup that ranked 13th with 178 home runs and 17th with 696 runs scored last season. Such a move would be unpopular but it's one the Twins could survive and help a team improve their biggest weakness from a season ago.
