11 takeaways from the historic NFL trade deadline
Before the bell run on Tuesday’s NFL trade deadline there were more moves made than any other time in history. It’s a sign that the NFL is headed in the same direction as the NHL, MLB and NBA with franchises playing to their timelines. If you’re not first, you’re last.
The league’s decision to move the deadline back a few years ago gave additional weeks for clubs to see clearer whether they had a chance to compete for the playoffs. The results: a bunch of fun for NFL fans and some very fascinating deals to track going forward. Let’s have a look at some of the most intriguing things from deadline day…
1. How much will TJ Hockenson impact the Vikings’ offense right away?
Players in the NFL are remarkably good at catching onto new schemes. Last year when the Rams traded for Odell Beckham he appeared on 15 plays in his first game and then played 61 snaps the following week. As the Vikings head to Washington, it’s hard to expect Hockenson to take on a full workload. The Commanders will likely see more of Johnny Mundt, who has been a fine blocking tight end. By the time the Vikings travel to Buffalo, they should expect their new tight end to mostly have it figured out (or catered to him in order to play the majority of the game).
As far as what he can add to the offense, ESPN Stats and Info posted this gem on Twitter: Kirk Cousins is 30th in QBR and 33rd in yards per attempt when targeting tight end this season (out of 33 qualified QBs).
That checks out. The Vikings have gotten almost nothing out of the tight end position this year. Hockenson offers the ability to rumble after the catch and stretch the field enough to be dangerous. If he provides them with even average tight end play down the stretch it will be an upgrade — though their expectations based on his history should be higher than that.
2. Has Irv Smith Jr. played his last game as a Viking?
Potential, potential, potential. From the earliest impressions to the start of 2022 camp we have always talked about the possibilities of Irv Smith Jr. He is fast enough to go downfield and occasionally did throughout his four seasons in Minnesota. He is strong enough to run block effectively and occasionally did. He is versatile to line up anywhere and create matchup problems for linebackers and occasionally did. But he didn’t do any of it enough.
Much of that isn’t his fault. His injuries have come as freak accidents. Smith Jr. shouldn’t have been playing in the final preseason game of 2021 but he was thrown out there for a handful of plays and suffered a season-ending knee injury. This year in camp he got his thumb caught during a block and needed surgery. On Sunday against Arizona Smith Jr. was in pass protection when Alexander Mattison rolled up on his ankle. Bad luck.
The capabilities that Smith Jr. showed in his first two healthy seasons may come to fruition someday — and he’ll certainly get more chances in the NFL — but with Hockenson under contract in 2023 and Smith Jr. set to become a free agent after this season it appears virtually impossible that he’ll be back in purple next year.
The only question is whether he can (or wants to) come back this year. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said the timeline is 8-10 weeks. It was first reported as 4-6 weeks. The worse version puts the Vikings near the end of the season. Would he elect to play the TE2 role in a playoff game? It would give the Vikings another look but it’s probably inadvisable to play when the team has clearly replaced him and he’s still going to be set for some type of payday on the market.
3. The Vikings have the bones of a long-term offense
Christian Darrisaw, Brian O’Neill, Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson. If the Vikings can sign the latter two to long-term contracts, they will be guaranteed to roll out a lot of star power on offense for years to come. That matters to the team’s prospects down the road. Whether they draft a quarterback in 2023, 2024 or keep Kirk Cousins until the rest of time these players at highly valuable positions will give them a chance to have a top-notch offense year in and year out. Getting Hockenson answers the question of who their tight end was going to be after this season, which makes the rest of the pieces easier to bring together as they retool things from year to year. Again, that’s if they can sign Jefferson and Hockenson long term.
4. Chicago’s interesting Chase Claypool plan
As a rookie Chase Claypool looked like he was going to be a game-changing receiver but he hasn’t elevated his play from Year 1. Part of that might be the simple fact that Pittsburgh’s quarterback play has been as bad as any franchise over the last two seasons. Now he gets an opportunity to start fresh with the Bears, who gave up a second-round pick as part of the deal for the former Notre Dame standout.
Claypool’s presence gives Chicago a better opportunity to evaluate Justin Fields. They can’t walk into 2023 still wildly uncertain about their former first-round draft pick. Claypool eliminates the excuse of not having quality weapons. It’s not Jerry Rice and John Taylor but now the Bears have serviceable options for Fields. It also gives Chicago a potential long-term player if he chooses to sign an extension with them. Considering what they gave up it would appear inevitable that they will pay Claypool soon. That means the core of skill players to build around for Ryan Poles is solid with Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet and two good running backs.
5. The Bears’ excellent return for Roquan Smith
And Chicago still has lots of building to do. They traded Roquan Smith to Baltimore for a second, which was a strong move in Poles’ rebuild effort. Paying a non-premium position, even if it’s for a solid player, would restrict Poles’ options and ability to focus on positions like cornerback, edge rusher, tackle and receiver, where they are weak. Draft capital might not always solve problems but teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins who have taken advantage of draft picks to acquire elite talents in recent years prove the value of moving a player that you don’t plan to extend for a high pick.
6. The Packers didn’t get any receivers?
If you thought Aaron Rodgers was not having fun playing football this year, it doesn’t appear he’s going to be a ball of cotton candy and balloons any time soon. The Packers did not make a deadline move, though they were rumored to have been in the mix for Claypool. If Chicago took the Steelers’ receiver from out from under Green Bay, that would be the Bears’ biggest win versus the Packers since the 80s.
7. Brandin Cooks clearly wanted to be traded
The Texans’ wide receiver angrily tweeted after the trade deadline, giving the indication that he had been promised a trade. ESPN’s Ed Werder reported that the Cowboys and Texans were on the doorstep of a deal but could not work out the financial details in time.
8. That seems like a blunder on both sides.
The Texans are going nowhere and need all the future capital they can get and Dallas doesn’t have a true No. 2 receiver to pair with CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys have the makings of a legitimate Super Bowl contender with their defensive prowess and running game but they don’t have the depth of weapons that Philadelphia possesses. The rest of the NFC sighed with relief knowing that the Cowboys will have to cobble together the passing game beyond their top receiver.
9. The Bills made a low-key brilliant move
Nyheim Hines is not a household name but he might become one soon enough. The Bills acquired the RB/WR from the Indianapolis Colts and it’s tough to envision a better fit for the Josh Allen offense. Buffalo has looked for answers recently in the draft by picking Zack Moss and James Cook but neither has had the impact they hoped for. Hines gives them another legitimate pass catcher and playmaker. He has the fifth most receiving yards among all running backs since 2018. Giving Allen an underneath threat out of the backfield almost seems unfair considering the receivers he already has around him. The best team in the league got better.
10. Put Miami on the list of true contenders
The only team who has beaten Buffalo also improved significantly. The Dolphins are making the most of years of draft capital hoarding by going all in on stars. They acquired Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos for a first and fourth-round pick, giving them a nightmarish defensive line that already features Christian Wilkins and Jaelen Phillips.
If anyone is stopping the AFC powers in Buffalo or Kansas City, it looks like it could be Miami. Tua Tagovailoa has graded in the top five QBs by PFF this year and Tyreek Hill has been a revelation to his career. Their weakness was against opposing passing games but the additional pass rush could be a game changer.
11. The Rams would have paid what for Brian Burns?
Los Angeles was in “Bleep them picks” mode again and reportedly attempted to trade two first-round picks to the Panthers and Carolina turned down the deal. Presumably that means the Panthers feel confident in keeping Burns and bouncing back fairly quickly post-Rhule but the price tag is so high that Carolina may have been foolish not to take it, especially when the picks could be moderately high in the draft. Los Angeles is sputtering and may be in for a decline like the one Atlanta saw after they reached the 2016 Super Bowl or Philadelphia in 2017. They might need to take a longer term approach like Philly was eventually forced to do.
Related: Matthew Coller: The Vikings are all in after trading for Hockenson
Related: Adam Zimmer was found dead in his Twin Cities home
