20 interesting stats from the first 4 games of the Vikings' season
Technically the Minnesota Vikings will hit the quarter mark of the NFL season at the end of the first quarter against the Chicago Bears on Sunday but since you’ll be busy watching the game and not reading articles at that point, we should look at the first quarter of the season’s numbers now. What are people saying about all three phases of the Vikings and whether they point in a direction of improvement or regression? Let’s have a look…
Kirk Cousins is 20th in ESPN’s QBR and 11th by PFF grade
These two catch-all statistics tell us different things and both have some holes but combined they can tell a pretty accurate story. QBR attempts to contextualize a performance whereas PFF grades the actual throws. So completing a pass for seven yards on third-and-10 would lose you points by QBR but PFF would grade it favorably if the pass was accurate. An interception that bounced off someone’s hands would get dinged by QBR but PFF would score the quality of the throw.
There has often been a gap between Cousins’ QBR and PFF grades because game situation is factored into QBR but this year’s performance through four games is lower than any full season mark by QBR that Cousins has had as a starter. Likewise, his PFF passing grade is his lowest since joining the Vikings and he has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, which is not a normal occurrence for him over 16/17 games.
If you had to bet based on what these numbers suggest, you would lean toward Cousins’ play improving from here because he has historically been better than this over full seasons. He’s also had a tendency to bounce up and down in his QBR. To land at 3-1 during a stretch of the low end of the Cousins Coaster is the best possible scenario.
23rd in yards per pass attempt, fifth lowest average depth of target
Cousins has only thrown the ball 7.0 yards through the air on average thus far, which is down by a whole yard from even 2018, which was the lowest mark of his career. Only 7.6% of his passes have traveled 20 yards, down 5% from last year and cut in half from his best season as a Viking (2019).
Kevin O’Connell was asked on Monday what he thinks of Cousins’ performance so far. His response doesn’t take much reading between the lines: They have left throws on the table and O’Connell thinks they can eventually make those plays.
“I feel great about where Kirk’s headed and obviously there’s some things we can really coach hard, I can coach better to help him be at his best and truly start maximizing what we’re going to become as an offense,” O’Connell said. “To sit here at 3-1 and know that there’s a lot of plays maybe we’re going to be able to call back upon to make those plays and score more points and all those things is much easier to have that dialogue knowing that we have been able to win some tough fought victories.”
Last season Cousins similarly had a slow start with ADOT. Through the first six weeks of 2021 he posted the fourth lowest ADOT in the league and then he jumped to the 11th highest in Weeks 6-12. It’s plausible we see that happen again.
26th in time of possession per drive and 21st in plays per drive
Pair this with the previous short-passing stat and you land on the conclusion that the Vikings aren’t very effective as a dink-and-dunk team. They are probably going to have to rely on explosive plays to have successful drives, which has often been the case with Cousins at QB. Since 2018 they have ranked 27th, 23rd, 19th, and 27th in plays per drive.
Pass blocking ranks 20th by PFF
Interestingly Cousins is the ninth most pressured QB but the offensive line has performed close to average as a whole. As has been the case in the past, the majority of the pressure is coming up the middle with the guard position allowing 55% of pressures versus 33% to the tackles. It’s plausible that the interior of the O-line can improve with more experience for rookie guard Ed Ingram but traditionally playing as a mid-round rookie is a difficult task. Left guard Ezra Cleveland has not seen a bump in his Year 3 numbers, ranking 42nd of 60 in pass blocking. But if the Vikings continue to hang around as a mid-pack O-line, they will give Cousins enough clean pockets to operate the offense, unlike at key times in years past.
7th best run blocking but 17th in yards per rush attempt
It should be mentioned that the difference between 12th and 17th is 0.1 yards per carry and that a single game can wildly swing this stat early in the season but the Vikings’ overall effectiveness with the running game has been spotty. If they continue to run block at a high level, it stands to reason that the team’s yards per attempt would go up eventually. However, Dalvin Cook is playing through injury and still carrying the load. If he doesn’t thrive, we may see more of the backup RBs.
12th in average drive start and 2nd in average drive start against, No. 2 in kick return against
If your perception is that the Vikings have had a very good performance on special teams this year, you are right. The ‘Teams unit has been consistently strong particularly at pinning opposing kick returners back and they have made some potential game-changing plays like a field goal block against the Eagles and a pass from punter Ryan Wright to rookie Jalen Nailor.
22nd both passing and run defense by EPA
The difference between the expected points added versus the actual points scored against the Vikings’ defense is concerning. Because of the high number of splash plays last year (sacks and INTs) the Vikings still ranked 15th in EPA vs. the pass despite their struggles. Only two teams in 2021 reached the playoffs with 22nd or lower ranking in pass defense EPA (Kansas City, Las Vegas).
29th in completion percentage allowed, 28th in yards per attempt allowed
And here we find the cause of the poor EPA. The idea of a bend-don’t-break defense is to allow short passes and shut down anything downfield but the Vikings are giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt. One thing going for them is the upcoming schedule of offenses includes the Bears, possibly a backup QB in Miami, Arizona and Washington. There are some get-right games on the way for the defense before they take on Buffalo and Dallas.
6th best in scoring percentage allowed
This is a regression stat. They have played defensively in a way that should have allowed more points. It didn’t but if they don’t improve we are sure to see offenses score at a higher clip along the way.
Opposing kickers are 3-for-7, lowest % against in the league
And here’s one of the reasons for the low scoring output. The Vikings can’t expect teams to miss field goals at this rate for the whole season.
Christian Darrisaw ranks 8th by PFF among tackles, Ed Ingram 49th of 60 in pass blocking
Teams are always looking for the “next step” from super talented young players. Well, it’s a long season but it certainly looks like Darrisaw has taken that step. As a first-round pick with outstanding physical talent, he has paired that with some experience and improvement from last year into a top-10 performance through four games. The Vikings are going to have a case for the best tackle tandem in the league if this continues.
The guard position remains in serious question. Ingram may have flashed some high-level ability that made him a second-round pick but the results aren’t vastly better than his predecessors. The difference is that he has a chance to grow throughout the year and be far better by the final quarter of the season than he is now.
Justin Jefferson has taken 35% of snaps in the slot (per PFF)
Simply put: “The Cooper Kupp role,” was more imagination than reality. Kupp ran out of the slot 66% of the time last year. The explanation might exist in KJ Osborn’s strengths as a slot receiver. He’s taken 60% of snaps in the slot.
Adam Thielen is 61st and KJ Osborn 86th of 91 in yards per route run
This has to change, right? There were opportunities for Cousins to find each of these receivers against the Saints and you have to think that as the season goes along Cousins will start hitting the open guys more often. Still it’s puzzling that the attention on Jefferson hasn’t resulted in more success for Thielen and Osborn on a play-to-play basis. How much they can improve these numbers is probably the key to the entire season.
Za’Darius Smith ranks 19th and Danielle Hunter 35th (of 61) in pass rush win rate
The duo that once both ranked at the top of the league in pressures has just been OK and OK isn’t going to allow the Vikings to keep playing the same scheme where they rely almost entirely on Smith and Hunter to pressure opposing QBs. One thing to consider is that Hunter has faced three elite right tackles, which may play a role in the lack of production. His PFF grades are still above average. That hints he could ramp up more in the coming weeks, especially against a bad Bears O-line.
Patrick Peterson has allowed just 9 completions on 20 targets (5th best completion percentage allowed)
At least so far the Vikings’ one-year, $4 million deal with Patrick Peterson is a home run. He’s been strong in coverage and blocked a field goal. He might be the perfect type of player for Donatell’s system that asks the corners to play off coverage rather than pressing often.
Dalvin Tomlinson is the highest PFF graded Vikings defensive player and has 10 QB pressures.
There a few players more consistently solid than Tomlinson but this year he’s taken a step forward with his pass rushing. He has his highest pass rush grade and ranks in the top 20 among defensive tackles in total pressures. His pass rush win rate is sixth. Can Tomlinson keep this up or has it been based on matchups?
All non-Tomlinson DTs have 6 total and Ross Blacklock has only played 34 snaps
If Tomlinson doesn’t sustain his high level of pass rush success the Vikings will need somebody else to step up because they haven’t garnered much pressure from the middle of the defense. It remains somewhat questionable that they cut interior rusher Armon Watts before the season and haven’t used his replacement often. It’s possible Blacklock will play more as the year goes along.
Eric Kendricks, Jordan Hicks and Chandon Sullivan have combined to allow 41 completions on 52 targets at 10.0 yards per attempt
The middle of the field has been very available for opposing quarterbacks and the linebackers are taking the hit by the numbers. It stands to reason that playing safeties over the top would cause the linebackers to cover more space. There doesn’t seem to be any indication that the Vikings want to change that so the LBs and nickel corner could continue to get targeted often. But that might be exactly what they want rather than allowing successful deep throws.
Fourth in percentage of plays that are passes
This stat is influenced quite a bit by the Eagles game. Over the last two games O’Connell has pushed the run button much more and that may be the case for the remainder of the season when they are playing in close games. The Vikings’ new head coach is still figuring out how he needs to use everyone and there’s no debate that Cousins is one of the best play-action QBs in the NFL — but they have to be in situations to use play-action.
Fewest penalty yards in the NFL, opponents have the seventh most
This one goes in the luck category over the first four games and is bound to even out over the season. The bottom line for lots of these numbers is that the Vikings have to be better to sustain their success but there’s indicators that they can be.
