Analyzing ESPN's Vikings projections
Every year ESPN's Mike Clay predicts the stat line of every player in the NFL, right down to the fourth tight ends, kickers and depth defensive tackles. So what does he think of each Viking? Let’s have a look…
(You can find all of his projections here)
Offense
QB — Kirk Cousins
563 attempts, 4,123 yards passing, 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 35 sacks, 96.1 passer rating
While the first reaction to these numbers might be that they are on the low side, over his career as a Viking, Cousins averages 4,096 yards, 31 touchdowns, nine interceptions per year. The dip in quarterback rating from his 103.5 mark over the last four years could be the expectation that he will be throwing more short passes in this offense (Clay projects 7.3 yards per attempt). Part of hiring Kevin O’Connell is the idea that he will be able to get more out of Cousins — or at very least lean more on the passing game, which would presumably equate to an uptick in passing yardage. However, Cousins is also being asked to adapt to a new offense that could result in an adjustment period. The expected numbers may be on the safe side with a lack of clarity on how things are going to ultimately look under O’Connell. Overall if Cousins doesn’t produce more than this state line, it’s hard to see the Vikings having great improvement on offense.
RB — Dalvin Cook
264 attempts, 1,172 yards, 10 touchdowns, 44 receptions
In 2019 and 2020, there were few running backs who could approach Dalvin Cook’s numbers. Only Derrick Henry gained more rushing yards and Cook ranked fifth in receiving yards over those two seasons. The Vikings’ Pro Bowl running back still managed quality statistics in 2021 but he didn’t perform at the same level as his two peak years. Cook’s PFF grade dipped from second in 2020 to 19th of 24 RBs with more than 170 carries. His yards per touch went down from 5.5 to 4.9 and he picked up just 6.6 yards per reception. The passing game to running backs is one area that O’Connell’s offense can vastly improve. Under Kevin Stefanski, Cook gained 9.8 yards per catch but the screen game has been less impressive since he left for Cleveland. Predicting a solid rather than marvelous season fits with the accumulation of injures starting to become a concern in Cook’s age-27 season and the fact that his stats could dip if O’Connell passes the ball more and/or uses his backup running backs more often.
RB — Alexander Mattison
119 attempts, 480 yards, four touchdowns, 22 receptions
The biggest question with Mattison’s production is whether he will hold off Kene Nwangwu. In relief of Cook, Mattison has been remarkably consistent, gaining between 430 and 490 yards in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. But the Vikings now have one of the fastest runners in the NFL behind Mattison in Nwangwu, who gained 4.7 yards per carry in limited duty last season. If the reps are split between both of Cook’s substitutes, we could see the numbers between them be much closer than projected.
RB — Kene Nwangwu
17 attempts, 72 yards, one touchdown, four receptions
If this is Nwangwu’s stat line (and he’s healthy), it’s a failure by O’Connell. As a kick returner last season, the running back from Iowa State showed that he can be special with the ball in his hands. The previous administration failed to see that with Cordarrelle Patterson and missed out on his explosive-play ability because of it. The new offensive-minded coach can’t make the same mistake. Whatever it takes — screens, reverses, draws, wildcats — find some way to give Nwangwu a chance to get in space with his 4.3 speed more often once per game.
WR — Justin Jefferson
155 targets, 101 receptions, 1,417 yards, eight touchdowns (second highest projected fantasy receiver)
Expectations are so high for the O’Connell/Jefferson pairing that anything short of Cooper Kupp’s 2021 numbers feels like it would be coming up short. But Jefferson’s role shouldn’t undergo a massive change considering he has led the NFL in receiving since entering the NFL. He’s averaged more than 3.0 yards per catch more than Kupp and Davante Adams during that time, which speaks to his deep pass ability. Clay’s projection expects more of the same rather than Jefferson turning into Mr. Quick Game. That’s fair. If Jefferson has the season projected above, he’ll be off to one of the best three-year starts to a career in history.
WR — Adam Thielen
104 targets, 72 receptions, 792 yards, six touchdowns
Last season Thielen was on pace to catch 97 passes for 1,060 yards and 15 touchdowns. But health and age become a factor when predicting players in their 30s who have been recently banged up, so it’s understandable to lower the bar for Thielen. But his skill set, as we saw with wild one-handed catches in minicamp, has always been built on his hands and route running. Plus the attention is drawn away from him by Jefferson, particularly in the red zone. If Thielen plays between 15-17 games, Cousins will still make him one of his favorite targets and he’ll beat the ESPN projection.
WR — KJ Osborn
74 targets, 45 receptions, 561 yards, four touchdowns
When a player has a breakout season, we always assume that there is another big step forward to come the following year. Clay isn’t buying that with KJ Osborn, though his projected stat line would mean another quality WR3 season. It’s fair to question whether there’s another gear considering Osborn’s raw physical talented only landed him in the fifth round of the draft and PFF graded him 79th of 110 receivers last season. If he does outperform these marks, the Vikings will have found another true diamond in the rough receiver.
TE — Irv Smith
75 targets, 53 receptions, 520 yards, five touchdowns
After a terrific training camp last year, Smith Jr. suffered a season-ending injury, leaving the Vikings to wait another year to find out how he’ll adapt to the TE1 role following two seasons co-piloting the position with Kyle Rudolph. The 2019 second-round pick was efficient in his 2020 season than might tight ends, ranking 10th in yards per reception, but it’s yet to be seen whether he can carry that over to a full-time role that asks a lot from the tight end. It’s fair to play this one projection safe but the upside could be higher if Smith Jr. becomes a centerpiece of the offense.
Other notable projections:
— 14th overall offensive rank
— 24th in rushing yards
— Bisi Johnson, Ihmir Smith-Marsette and Jalen Nailor combine for 25 catches
— Kene Nwangwu gets 30 kick return attempts, 0.8 touchdowns
Defense
ED — Za’Darius Smith
859 snaps, 10.7 sacks
When Za’Darius Smith is healthy, he’s a force. The biggest question surrounding Smith, however, is his health. The veteran pass rusher missed nearly the entire 2021 season with back surgery and then initially signed with the Baltimore Ravens but had the deal come apart at the last minute. If he plays nearly 900 snaps and picks up 11 sacks, the signing will look like a home run for the Vikings — and those are fair numbers if he’s able to remain on the field. It would feel like Griffen-Hunter again on the edges.
ED — Danielle Hunter
806 snaps, 9.3 sacks
Despite missing more than half of last season, Hunter’s health is less of a concern than with Smith. His torn pectoral injury was a stroke of bad luck and his 2020 neck injury did not hinder the Pro Bowl defensive end in the first seven games, in which he picked up six sacks. Over his last 39 games, Hunter has 36 sacks. He will need to adapt to Ed Donatell’s defensive scheme but assuming pass rushing is pass rushing, picking up nine sacks would seem to be a worst-case scenario if he’s able to play 15-plus games.
Interior D-line
No DT over 650 snaps, 3.4 sacks for Armon Watts, 11 total sacks as a unit
Neither Dalvin Tomlinson, Harrison Phillips and Armon Watts has played 700 snaps in a season over their careers, which suggests that they will be rotating often depending on the situation. Tomlinson and Phillips specialize in run stopping and Watts proved last season he can offer some juice in the pass rush with 5.0 sacks and 33 QB pressures. They are much more of a push-the-pocket interior D-line than a bunch of sack masters.
LB — Eric Kendricks
1,020 snaps, 146 tackles, 1.9 sacks, 0.9 interceptions
Linebackers aren’t easily judged in general, but their traditional stats like sacks and tackles are especially lacking in insight. Last season Kendricks had his worst PFF grade since his rookie year but the part of his game that suffered might not have entirely been in his control. The All-Pro linebacker rated among the worst run defenders, which seemed to be symptomatic of the struggles in the trenches. His coverage grade (73.8 out of 100) was still solid and he created splash plays in the form of sacks and interceptions. We should expect better run defense with an improved interior D-line. However, the Vikings also might rely on him more if they aren’t often playing with a safety at the line of scrimmage.
LB — Jordan Hicks
827 snaps, 100 tackles, 1.8 sacks, 0.8 interceptions
Hicks has been particularly volatile during his career, grading as high as 88.4 in 2016 and as low as 50.4 in 2020. His grade has usually gone hand and hand with his sacks and interceptions, neither of which has been consistent from year to year. The Vikings will ask their experienced linebacker to be solid from a play-to-play basis and if the big plays come along, they’ll be happy to see them. The best stat Hicks brings to the table is health. He’s played over 1,000 snaps each of the last three years.
CB — Patrick Peterson
988 snaps, 1.2 interceptions
The Vikings are relying on the 2021 version of Patrick Peterson, which was largely healthy and solid despite two previous down years, to carry over to 2022. He played 844 snaps and allowed an 89.0 passer rating when targeted. A similar showing, regardless of interception total, would be a huge win.
CB — Cam Dantzler
806 snaps, 1.7 interceptions
Last season Dantzler lost out on the starting outside corner job to Bashaud Breeland and ultimately turned out to be the best statistical corner, giving up just a 70.3 passer rating allowed. However, some of the passes he did give up into his coverage turned out to be important ones, like getting beat by Amari Cooper against the Cowboys and dropping back too far into the end zone versus the Detroit Lions. The Vikings will need better big-moment play from Dantzler. Still, this is his chance to have a breakout season.
S — Harrison Smith
1,020 snaps, 112 tackles, 0.9 sacks, 2.1 interceptions
At a position that can be volatile, Smith continued to play well and play a lot. For the fifth straight season he was on the field for more than 950 snaps and allowed a passer rating into his coverage of under 85.0. There’s no reason to project any type of slide.
S — Lewis Cine
859 snaps, 80 tackles, 0.8 sacks, 2.0 interceptions
It’s impossible to predict rookies but if Cine can beat out Cam Bynum for the starting job and play the vast majority of snaps with a few game-altering plays mixed in, it will be a win for the Vikings.
Other notable projections:
— James Lynch 408 snaps
— DJ Wonnum only 1.8 sacks
— Cam Bynum 473 snaps
— Andrew Booth 344 snaps
— Greg Joseph 27 for 32 field goals
