Analyzing ex-Vikings GM Rick Spielman's latest interview
Our old friend Rick Spielman is keeping his name out there these days, whether it was with appearances with Fox Sports and CBS Radio, his new Tik Tok career, and most recently, an appearance on the PFF NFL Podcast. I highly recommend listening, it was a really interesting look into Spielman’s thought process and how he went about team-building. Let's have a look into his comments...
The use of analytics in the NFL Draft
One of the biggest storylines heading into this draft was how Kwesi Adofo-Mensah could “analytics” the draft and widely how he could use analytics to his advantage.
If you recall, Adofo-Mensah explained that his view is that numbers can “fill in the blind spots” of scouting and that scouting does the same for analytics. He added that the information used to make decisions can come from all sorts of different sources.
“Sometimes that involves quantitative research, sometimes that involves just talking to people about experience, using their intuition,” Adofo-Mensah said. “It varies, but at the end of the day, the core thing is learning, trying to figure out why, and then using that 'why' to make better decisions with intent and just a detailed focus. So that's really what it means to me.”
Adofo-Mensah’s use of analytics was heralded as a step in a different direction from the previous regime dominated by the ground and pound approach by Mike Zimmer. And while Spielman got that moniker as well, and he pushed back against positional value during the podcast appearance, he also described his draft process which included plenty of help from their analytics department.
“To give you an example, a left tackle, we had maybe really liked a guy,” Spielman said. “But … his arm measurement was less than 33 inches long and he ran a 5.25 or slower 40. Well, (our) analytics (department) said there have been seven guys with those measurements that came in and were drafted in the first three rounds and none of them ended up being starters or being significant players in the league. That would throw a red flag up for me and for us as we went through the decision process.
“We used a lot of that as tiebreakers, I guess. Some guys, we had a dump box at the bottom of each category. So if there was something that was a major concern for us then we’d pull them out of the cleaner guys and put them in a box to say if he’s still there in the later rounds then maybe we take a swing at him. You’re not even adding in the character side of it, the security background checks that you did. What we found was that if they had a medical red alert and a character alert, and a lot of that was discussed when we were in the group setting, if they got two of those red flags we would take them off our draft board. Because analytics came and did a study over the last 15 years (on) how we graded them medically, and again that’s a subjective grade because everybody’s doctor’s grades differently and character, (but) if we put them as a red flag character guy, that combination (with a medical red flag), there was a 0 percent chance of that guy ever playing to his grade, where we had him on our draft board. That held up over the last 15 years.”
Spielman detailed that his analytics staff kept a database of all of the players they scouted dating back 15 years, which they would use to compare to every new draft class. Spielman would complete after-action reports for each prospect as well, analyzing why they missed or hit on certain prospects.
“If we missed, (we tried to figure out) why we missed so we try not to make the same mistake again,” Spielman said, admitting that he did have a tendency to reach on players with strong athletic traits that didn’t have the production to match.
“Those were the guys that we missed on, that had more than enough physical ability but they were underachievers because whether they didn’t love playing the game, just relying on their athletic ability but they just didn’t reach the level they should’ve been at,” he said.
Around these parts, we call that the Danielle Hunter conundrum.
The analytics department was also a major key in helping identify late-round and undrafted fliers. Spielman said the team averaged about 110 players on its draft board that were “Viking fits,” meaning they matched the schematic, character, and film requirements the team needed to use a draft pick on. But they had about 700 more prospects on their “back board” which was filled with mostly undrafted players. Spielman said the analytics team was able to eliminate about 650 of those players each year based on different historical thresholds that indicated that the player would have a hard time even making a practice squad. With the remaining players, the department was able to identify a few prospects per position group that could have a chance of making it.
“It really helped us to bring those guys to the forefront. So we knew of guys that could potentially have a chance,” he said.
Adam Thielen, Marcus Sherels, and CJ Ham were all players that the analytics staff “pinged” on the back board and brought to his attention, he said.
Towards the end of Spielman’s run, he said the front office almost got to the point of “cloning” players, meaning they had such a deep repository of data that they could find nearly exact comparisons with current and old draft prospects based on measurables, production, and character.
Unfortunately for Spielman, all that data is proprietary to the Vikings, meaning the organization owns it and Adofo-Mensah would have access to it. When asked if he thought Adofo-Mensah would use it, Spielman laughed and said, “I’m sure Kwesi is pretty efficient at that part of the job and knows a lot more than I knew from the analytics side.”
Spielman’s interview provided a peek into some of the work front offices are doing and what types of things that they ask from their analytics staff.
If not Kirk, then who?
Spielman was asked about the decision to sign Kirk Cousins back in 2018. He reiterated what he’s said previously, that it was a “unique situation,” but also said, “you have to ask yourself, well if not him, then who? That’s not easy to replace either because how many quarterbacks are in this league that you can truly say, that guy is a franchise quarterback?”
That’s clearly how the Vikings felt about Cousins in his tenure. And it’s what the new regime has concluded so far. Cousins is good enough to be the quarterback of an average-to-above-average team, but he’s also not good enough that teams don’t consider other options.
When asked if the Vikings pursued Justin Fields in the 2021 draft, which has been widely reported, Spielman said, “we consider everything.”
Spielman was mostly complimentary of Cousins but didn’t throw his full support behind the quarterback, which he often did while the general manager.
“It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses with the new regime up there because I don’t have a question about his ability. It was just the biggest factor was always with him, can he win close games or in big situations? But go through and look at all the games we played in last year. The opener where we lost in overtime to Cincinnati. He got us down there in field goal range and Dalvin Cook fumbled the ball. Or we go down and he takes us down and wins in overtime in Carolina. Or he takes us down to take a lead with a minute something left in Detroit and then Detroit goes back down and beats us at the end.”
If Spielman stayed, Harrison Smith might have a different partner
Spielman spent the latter part of the podcast discussing the draft. When asked who had the best draft, Spielman immediately brought up the Baltimore Ravens and their decision to pick Kyle Hamilton, calling him a “really good football player” on tape.
“To get a Hamilton at 14, and he fell because everybody was probably worried about the 40-yard time and he plays a lot faster than that,” said Spielman, who earlier in the podcast said before adding any other info about a player, they wanted to get a film grade on him, which can help quell any fears that come up during another part of the process.
“There’s a difference between, hey numbers solidify things but that’s why we didn’t put all that other ancillary work into our decision process until after we had, what we saw on them as football players.”
He also spoke highly of the Detroit Lions, where his brother Chris works in the front office, and specifically praised Jameson Williams, who he called “the most explosive, Tyreek Hill-type talent in the draft.”
“I know he’s coming off an ACL, but to do that, I’m going to be fascinated to see with Minnesota trading within the division, and them going to get that, does that ever come back to bite Minnesota in the rear end or was that a great trade for Minnesota because they picked up some more picks and then Williams doesn’t become the player everyone thought he was going to become. But, boy, when he has the ball in his hands, that guy can run.”
Not sure if Spielman is tuned in to Vikings Twitter, but if he is, both these comments feel like a turn of the knife. Williams and Hamilton were two of the most sought-after prospects from fans and both were passed on when the Vikings traded down. Well played, Rick.
