And now things get interesting for the Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings may be wrapping Kirk Cousins with expensive chains and having him dance shirtless on the plane home after victories but a stretch of winning football isn’t exactly new to Cousins in Minnesota. In 2019 the Vikings ripped off eight wins in 10 weeks between October and mid-December.
There are some similarities between that run and the start of the 2022 season. The first being that the Vikings defeated a group of struggling opponents. During the hot run in ‘19, they beat one team with a winning record (the eventual 9-7 Eagles). They lost prove-it games against the Chiefs and Seahawks, and finished out the season with a home loss to Green Bay that eliminated any chance at taking the division crown.
This year the Vikings have won three games against backup quarterbacks and Miami, with Skyler Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, is the only club they’ve beaten that is over .500. In Buffalo they may very well face another backup with Josh Allen injured.
The difference between ‘19 and ‘22 is that Cousins was playing much better that year by the numbers and the victories were more decisive. In the 8-2 portion of their schedule, Cousins posted a 118.1 QB rating and averaged 8.8 yards per attempt. Following a slugfest in Washington, the Vikings’ QB is averaging 6.6 YPA and has an 89.5 rating. The Vikings haven’t beaten anyone by more than one score, whereas in ‘19 six of the eight wins were by at least two scores.
Via old friend Chad Graff, here’s how the Vikings stack up in Expected Points Added per offensive and defensive play.
Nine weeks into the season, the Patriots have the No. 1 defense per EPA/play. (But an offense that needs a lot of work.) pic.twitter.com/cUzK2LKI5r
— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) November 7, 2022
Yes, you are reading that correctly, their offense and defense has been the same in efficiency as the New Orleans Saints.
Now the Vikings will face four straight teams that sport winning records, starting with the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills next Sunday. Then they take on Dallas, New England and the New York Jets. Each of those clubs also ranks in the top 10 in passing yards per attempt allowed.
The strange thing about the upcoming battles with winning teams is that the stakes aren’t particularly high because of the standings. The Vikings have the biggest division lead through Week 9 of any team since 2011.
With the Packers 3.5 games back and neither Chicago or Detroit looking poised to tighten up the NFC North race, the Vikings do not have to be great to end up with great playoff position. No team since 2000 has started 7-1 and ended up with fewer than 10 wins. And with games against the Colts, Lions, Bears and Packers still on the schedule, it would seem 10 is the absolute worst-case scenario for this team. That should win the division easily, considering the state of things.
It’s easy to create the “let’s find out who these guys are” narrative with the upcoming slate, but that might not even be a perfect fit because we have seen on display their strengths and weaknesses for an entire half season.
We know where they can be beat (even though they haven’t been) and we know where they need to win (Jefferson, D-line pressure etc.). If they go 2-2, do we know who these guys are? Maybe 4-0 or 0-4 would tell us something, but we have a tendency to overreact to things that happen during a season.
For example, the Super Bowl-winning Rams started 7-1 and then fell to 7-4 with all three losses coming against winning teams (Tennessee, San Francisco, Green Bay). Guess they weren’t ready for primetime! Oh wait.
That’s not to say that the next stretch doesn’t mean anything. These are the games that everyone has waited to see. But they aren’t exactly predictive. In ‘19 the narrative all season was that the Vikings couldn’t beat a winning team (because they didn’t) and then they upset the New Orleans Saints in the first round of the playoffs. The Vikings aren’t answering the question of whether they can be a contender in the postseason with a four-game portion of their season, even if it’s against contending teams.
It might be more of a stylistic thing. Can they play this way against those teams? They have certainly put together some impressive performances (see: Smith, Za’Darius) but their opponents have repeatedly blundered away chances to beat the Vikings i.e. Taylor Heinicke’s late-game interception while up by a touchdown on Sunday. The good teams probably won’t do that.
“What we’ve done, 7-1, it’s a great accomplishment that means absolutely nothing in the big picture of where we want to go as a team,” O’Connell said. “So if we can acknowledge both the positives from our performances and the areas where we need to improve.”
But this team has a chance to keep building momentum. They are still remarkably healthy and learning more about each other as they go along; the team galvanizing around Cousins. Tensions were so high in ‘19 that despite the Vikings making the playoffs and sitting starters on the final day of the season, there were still reports that ownership was considering trading Mike Zimmer to the Dallas Cowboys, who were in need of a coach following the firing of Jason Garrett.
That’s not the feeling at all for the ‘22 version. From the outset Kevin O’Connell aimed to bond the team together and gave veterans the go-ahead to lead the team. The ‘19 team may have been better in a lot of ways but this feels better. Maybe that’s because the first impression in ‘19 was Stefon Diggs skipping practice because he wanted out. Players want in with this team, as you saw from TJ Hockenson’s thrilled reaction to move from Detroit to Minnesota.
“This locker room, these coaches, these people, the community, just hearing the fans out there and how they travel, I mean, they’re already yelling my name, it’s pretty sweet,” Hockenson said. “I'm really happy to be part of this organization and part of this team. There’s nowhere else I'd rather be.”
They are also winning in the right areas i.e. situational football, penalties, clock management, player health, turnovers and in the clutch moments.
“I think it’s complimentary football in the critical moments of games that define good teams in this league,” O’Connell said. “You don’t always win with style, but when you’re able to win football games and consistently win close games by winning in the fourth quarter, that does matter. You hate to continue to put yourselves in positions where you need to come from behind and win, but at least we know we’ve kind of removed all doubt and have a belief in ourselves that we can go get those wins when we have to.”
Another similarity from three years ago was the tenuous nature of the roster. While there are certainly players who will be stars for years to come like Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, the age and contract status of numerous veterans will be a factor to whether they can keep prying the winning window open after this year. It’s not totally a “Last Dance” situation but it’s maybe mildly a “Last Dance” situation like 2019 to 2020 was. There is urgency to make this happen in a year where everything has fallen into place, from the schedule, to health, to top-notch showings from older players like Patrick Peterson, Harrison Smith, and Za’Darius Smith.
So even though the next four games won’t give us all the answers about where this train will ultimately end up, they could act as a slingshot for a team that’s starting to believe in itself. They could also act as a bucket of cold water to the “Team of Destiny” idea. Or running into some adversity could give them more chances to bond.
The ‘22 Vikings could end up like that ‘19 club that wasn’t as strong as their best stretch and hit a buzzsaw in San Francisco, or they could come together as one of the best teams in franchise history. Everything seems to be on the table as they head into the second half of the season.
