Are the 2022 Vikings better than the 2021 Titans?
For a moment, think back to the 2021 NFL season. Not to the Minnesota Vikings’ disappointing year but to the AFC playoff picture.
For weeks leading up to the playoffs, the NFL community spent hours dissecting whether one surprising team in the AFC could keep up their level of play come the postseason. Despite having a strong record with numerous notable wins and an offense with several star players, this team remained doubted.
Sound familiar with how the current Minnesota Vikings’ season is being discussed?
That 2021 team was the Tennessee Titans. In a regular season full of parity in the AFC, the Titans unexpectedly rose to the top, starting the season 8-2 before finishing 12-5 and grabbing the No. 1 seed before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals in the divisional round.
As the dust settles on the Vikings’ remarkable win against the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, similar questions of how far this team can go come playoff time have become the dominant storyline – just as they were for the Titans a year ago.
So as we try to place this Minnesota team in a wacky NFC playoff picture, I found it informative to compare this Vikings season to Tennessee’s 2021 year with a simple question guiding the research: are the 2022 Vikings better than the 2021 Titans? And in turn, should the Vikings be expected to do better than the Titans did in the postseason?
By the numbers
Much of the uneasiness surrounding the Vikings’ start to this season is borne out in their relative lack of success in normally telling statistics. Turns out, that was a trait shared by the Titans as well.
Minnesota boasts the best record in the NFL despite the lack of one elite unit. On defense, the Vikings rank 29th in yards allowed per game and 14th in points allowed. On offense, they’re 11th in yards per game (7th in passing yards and 23rd in rushing yards) and 8th in scoring.
Tennessee’s numbers look very similar, except with the defense performing better than the offense. In 2021, the Titans were 12th in yards allowed and 6th in points allowed. On offense, they were 17th in yards and 15th in points. Although they likely would’ve finished higher if not for injuries. Derrick Henry missed nine games and A.J. Brown missed four.
By efficiency metrics, the teams are also mighty similar. The Vikings rank 16th overall in Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic. They rank 17th on offense, 20th on defense and 25th on special teams.
The Titans ranked 20th overall, 20th on offense, 12th on defense and 23rd on special teams.
The Vikings' offense ranks 12th in EPA/play on offense and 13th in EPA/play on defense. The Titans ranked 15th in offensive EPA and 10th in defensive EPA.
Tennessee’s point differential of +65 was relatively modest given its strong record. Minnesota’s point differential is +35 this season.
Even on a player-to-player comparison, the results are shockingly similar, most notably at quarterback.
Here’s a look at Tannehill’s statistics:
67% completion, 3734 yards, (219 per game) 21 TDs, 14 INTs, 89.6 passer rating, 7.0 yards per attempt, an average depth of target of 6.6 yards, 81.6 PFF grade (12th in the NFL), 14th in EPA/play.
Here’s Cousins’:
64% completion, 2356 yards, 14 TDs, 8 INTs, 87.0 passer rating, 6.7 yards per attempt, an average depth of target of 6.4 yards, 71.7 PFF grade (13th in the NFL), 19th in EPA/play.
Both quarterbacks had almost identical big-time throw rates and turnover-worthy play rates.
In many ways, this proves that the Vikings can continue to win games – and potentially be the top seed in the NFC – despite seeming average or just above average in most traditional metrics. The question is whether that will continue in the playoffs. It didn’t for the Titans last year.
Schedule
What has seemingly vaulted Minnesota into the conversation of contenders this season is its recent defeat of the Buffalo Bills. For some it legitimized the Vikings’ hot start, finally showing they could compete against and beat one of the best teams in the NFL.
That shouldn’t be reason alone, though. The Titans did that and more during 2021. By Week 10 last year, Tennessee had already beaten Buffalo 34-31 in Week 6 and followed it up with a drubbing of Kansas City 27-3 the next week. Then in Week 9, the Titans beat the Super Bowl Champion Rams 28-16.
The Titans also beat up a very poor division to help boost their record. Tennessee went 5-1 in its division – where the Colts went 9-8 and neither the Texans nor the Jags won more than five games.
Minnesota is 3-0 against the NFC North so far, with one team that appears to be average (Green Bay) and two teams that will likely finish at the bottom of the NFC.
Tennessee’s season even mirrored Minnesota’s in how they performed in one-score games. The Titans went 7-2 in one-score games. Minnesota is 7-0.
Per Football Outsiders, Tennessee had the 17th most difficult schedule in the NFL. Minnesota’s is likely to end up similar. Football Outsiders says the Vikings have faced the 13th hardest schedule so far and the rest of the schedule is ranked 21st in difficulty.
Personnel comparison
The Vikings and Titans also share a lot of personnel characteristics.
Both teams have one elite offensive weapon – Derrick Henry on the Titans and Justin Jefferson on the Vikings – and both have at least one other strong supplemental offensive piece. The Titans had A.J. Brown. The Vikings don’t have a player of Brown’s caliber as a second option, but they have several strong options – Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and T.J. Hockenson – all of whom would’ve been the third-best option on the Titans a year ago.
They also both boast star talent on defense. The Titans’ defense had Harold Landry, Jeffery Simmons, Denico Autry and Kevin Byard all playing well. The Vikings have Za’Darius Smith in peak form along with notable contributions from Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith.
Most importantly, both teams lack a star quarterback, each saddled with average to above-average starters who are having down years statistically that have caused limitations that need to be mitigated through scheme.
Why it could go differently
So is there any reason to expect Minnesota will fare better than Tennessee in the playoffs? The broader statistics show these teams are very similar. The Titans had much better wins at this point in the year than Minnesota has and Tennessee had the No. 1 seed despite missing its best player for half of the season.
However, there are a few reasons to point to that the Vikings’ road to the Super Bowl is more viable.
The first is Justin Jefferson. While Brown was on the Titans a year ago, his utilization and impact were nowhere near as notable as it has been since he joined the Eagles. And even the Eagles’ version of Brown is not nearing the impact of Justin Jefferson. As evidenced by the Bills game, Jefferson is one of the only receivers in the NFL that can completely take over a game. In a negative game script, Henry couldn’t do that for the Titans and Brown was asked to do it.
Minnesota also has a much easier pathway than the Titans. There is likely no NFC version of the Bengals waiting for the Vikings. They’ll likely slot in at the No. 2 seed and face the worst team in the NFC playoffs followed by Seattle/San Francisco or Tampa Bay.
Then there’s the injury luck. In the Titans’ 19-16 loss to the Bengals in the playoffs, Henry returned but was hampered by injury. While there’s still time for an injury to cripple Minnesota, it hasn’t come yet. The Titans were the 10th-most injured team in the NFL last year, per Football Outsiders. The Vikings have been on the opposite end of the spectrum even with injuries beginning to pop up over the last several weeks. The playoffs are often about who is the healthiest and right now the Vikings are set up to be one of those teams.
The reality though is that the Vikings’ playoff fate will likely come down to one final drive, just as it did for the Titans. The Titans and Bengals were tied at 16 with less than three minutes to go in the fourth quarter and Tannehill and the Titans had the ball with an opportunity to score. But a late interception gave the Bengals the ball with 20 seconds and Evan McPherson hit a game-winning 52-yard field goal to knock off Tennessee.
With the margins Minnesota has played with this season, that scenario is all but an eventuality. And whether or not the Vikings season is defined as a letdown – as the Titans were – will depend on that one series. Even more reason for fans to enjoy the ride now. Nothing is guaranteed come the playoffs.
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