Breaking down the great Minnesota Vikings draft debates
Welcome to Draft Day everyone. The Minnesota Vikings have many different directions they could go with the 23rd pick so we decided to make some arguments for and against several of the most likely outcomes…
Draft a cornerback
Haley’s case for:
The Vikings NEED to draft a cornerback. It’s the biggest hole on the team. They lost Patrick Peterson and Duke Shelley in free agency, who both had top-eight coverage grades in 2022. But even with them, the Vikings still allowed the second most passing yards, third highest yards per attempt, and the ninth highest completion percent to opposing quarterbacks. They did add Byron Murphy, who had the 61st highest coverage grade last season, but they need to draft a star in the early rounds. They can’t have Andrew Booth Jr (41.7 coverage grade) and Akayleb Evans (40.5 coverage grade) starting on the opposite side, or else they’re in for some trouble.
Matthew’s case against:
There isn’t exactly great history when it comes to drafting corners. The Vikings’ last four five or second-round CBs are Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander, Mike Hughes, Jeff Gladney and Andrew Booth Jr. and none of them became above average players (though the jury is still out on Booth Jr.). That extends beyond the Vikings. I searched corners taken between picks 20 and 35 since 2015 and found 15 taken and only Tre White and Byron Jones that turned into very good players (Trent McDuffie has a chance).
This year is a decent draft for corners so maybe there’s a gem for Brian Flores but if we look at how Philly and San Francisco built their CB groups through acquiring them via free agency or trade. Neither team has drafted a DB before the fourth round since 2017. The Vikings can use the draft capital in a different place and try to develop the young players they have and fill in the rest in free agency (when they have some cap space in the future).
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Pick Hendon Hooker or Will Levis
Matthew’s case for:
If the Vikings draft Hooker or Levis in the first round that means Kevin O’Connell is fully bought into them. Am I going to tell the former NFL QB and Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator he’s wrong?
One thing is pretty clear from recent draft history: If the league evaluates a quarterback as being worthy of a first-round pick then they have about an equal chance of making it as the other first-rounders. So you might have some concerns about Levis or Hooker but there’s always going to be warts with every prospect. They all need to develop in order to have a chance to make it.
This team can give a QB an incredible set of circumstances. Two elite tackles, the best receiver on earth and a really good offensive mind. Levis or Hooker don’t have to be perfect QBs to succeed here. You may think the odds aren’t great that they’ll be elite QBs but you can’t win the lottery if you never buy a ticket.
Haley’s case against:
Picking Hendon Hooker or Will Levis at 23 would be a waste of a high quality first round pick the Vikings could use on a star receiver or cornerback. Neither is an immediate upgrade over Kirk, and neither would be playing in 2022 since they’re both projects. Levis has the arm talent, but doesn’t have any stats from Kentucky that back it up (1.9 TD/Int, 0.021 EPA per play, only a 2.3% big time throw rate). Hooker has all the top stats from college (13.5 TD/Int, 0.314 EPA per play, 7.4 rush y/a), but analysts have criticized the simple offense he led at Tennessee, and he’s also coming off a torn ACL. Are the Vikings really going to rest their future on prospects who are this flawed? Aim higher, folks.
Trade the pick for Trey Lance
Haley’s case for:
Trading pick 23 for Trey Lance may be giving up too much, but it’s nowhere near what the Niners gave up to get Lance themselves. With Brock Purdy likely commanding the 49ers from now on, the Vikings could go and grab Lance to be their own future. Lance has thrown only 102 pass attempts in his career, but had a respectable passer rating of 97.3 in his rookie year. If we disregard his 2022 season that consisted of a game in a monsoon and then breaking his ankle early in Week 2, he still is only 23 years old and has a super high ceiling with his top-notch arm talent and mobility. Pair him with Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell and profit. If it doesn’t work out, draft someone high next year.
Matthew’s case against:
I understand that Lance has had a strong of bad luck, from his cancelled COVID season to injuries, but if San Francisco is bailing already then I’m very concerned about why. They can’t seriously be locked into Purdy after basically seven games, right? Is there any example of a team drafting a QB early in the first round and then trading him away and that guy working out somewhere else?
I know he’s a Minnesotan and all but he only has two more years on his rookie contract. Let’s say they acquire Lance, trade Kirk to the Texans and start Lance this year and he doesn’t win right away, the Vikings basically have one or two years to take advantage of his cheapness. That’s a pretty tight window.
Keep in mind that San Francisco has the leverage too. If they give him up, it isn’t going to be for cheap. Are the Vikings best served giving away a major draft pick for someone who’s such a wild card? They have much bigger samples on the college prospects.
Select a receiver
Haley’s case against:
The Vikings arguably have much bigger holes on their roster than wide receiver right now, so taking a player like Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison with pick 23 might not be as effective as taking a star cornerback or defensive lineman. Remember when they finished 28th in points allowed on defense? The Vikings proved they can score points and move the ball downfield offensively with their current group (which had the 2nd most receiving yards in 2022) and Justin Jefferson doing most of the work, as his 2022 EPA of 74.32 was 25 points above all their other receivers combined. Some quality receiving options like Nathaniel Dell or Jalin Hyatt could be available for the Vikings in the mid-rounds should they decide to address the position then.
Matthew’s case for:
There’s a tradition in Minnesota of combining two or three great wide receivers together that has worked out pretty well over the years and I think they should carry on with that tradition into the future by picking a receiver in the first round this year.
It’s true that the Vikings technically have a bigger need at cornerback but let’s consider the value of the player if the pick works out. In recent years the Vikings’ second best receiver in terms of receptions put up these types of numbers:
2016: 69 catches, 967 yards five touchdowns
2017: 64 catches, 849 yards, eight touchdowns
2018: 102 catches, 1,021 yards, nine touchdowns
2019: (Thielen injured)
2020: 74 catches, 925 yards, 14 touchdowns
2021: 67 catches, 726 yards, 10 touchdowns
2022: 70 catches, 716 yards, six touchdowns
It seems like WR2 is a pretty big deal. You could argue that KJ Osborn will take over the WR2 role and TJ Hockenson will become the pseudo WR3 but Osborn is a free agent after this season and there’s no guarantee he stays in Minnesota.
Also look at the games against Green Bay and the Giants at the end of 2022. When they were able to put all their eggs in the Jefferson basket, the Vikings weren’t able to make them pay for it enough.
Take a pass rusher
Haley’s case for:
The Vikings have quality defenders like Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter who had top 20 pass rushing grades last season, but their defense was still below average in pressure rate (32.3%, 19th) and sack rate (5.8%, 23rd). They did add Marcus Davenport, who had the 25th highest pass rushing grade of edge rushers in 2022, but Smith could very much be traded soon, which would leave another hole on the defensive line. At pick 23, star interior defenders Calijah Kancey and Bryan Bresee may still be on the board for their taking.
Matthew’s case against:
If Kancey is there, it’s hard to make an argument against it but otherwise spending late first-rounder on a pass rusher comes along with some bad history. There are all sorts of “project” athlete types who have been picked in the late first and early second who have gone belly up. The only DE/OLB from pick 20 to 35 since 2015 who has become a star is TJ Watt. There’s only one other Pro Bowl appearance between all other edge rushers in that span. Do you want the next K’Lavon Chaisson?
If the Vikings had a top-15 pick and could land Will Anderson, Lukas Van Ness or Nolan Smith it would be worth spending the pick but if all of them are taken then picking hopes and prayers of raw players developing probably isn’t a good idea.
