Brian Flores is the right answer for whatever approach the Vikings take with their roster
The biggest question facing the Minnesota Vikings’ front office this offseason is whether to run back most of the existing roster and try to repeat 2022’s regular season results or to overhaul their personnel with an aim to get younger and have more cap flexibility down the road.
Monday’s hire of new defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a good fit no matter the direction they choose.
If the Vikings elect to keep their veterans on defense like Za’Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith, you can make a strong argument that — based on his past as Miami’s head coach — they will either be in a similar position to have success or better than 2022. We can find some evidence in Flores’ best Miami defense in 2020.
*(all the following data is from PFF)*
The edge rushers Smith and Hunter both ranked in the top 10 in QB pressures, per PFF, with Ed Donatell at the helm. Flores’ roots are similarly in a 3-4 system with edge rushers qualifying as outside linebackers. He wasn’t afraid to move around pass rusher Kyle Van Noy in ‘20, lining him up on the D-line for 473 snaps and 224 at inside linebacker. Za’Darius Smith has a long, successful history of unique alignments. On the other hand, Van Noy’s partner Emmanuel Ogbah rarely shuffled positions, which is the same for Hunter.
Flores wasn’t afraid to use his safeties more aggressively than the Donatell system, which only put Harrison Smith up in the box around 40% of the time. Miami’s Eric Rowe lined up in the box or in the slot around 60% of snaps. Flores liked to turn all of his safeties loose on blitzes, with safeties racking up 133 pass rushes in ‘20. That’s a huge difference from the 2022 Vikings, which saw a grand total of 18 pass rushes from safeties.
Smith’s history of splash plays under Mike Zimmer was rooted in playing instinctual at the line of scrimmage. Giving him back those opportunities, in theory, should yield better results.
Eric Kendricks registered his worst career PFF coverage grade last season. Not coincidentally, he was only used 13% of the time in man coverage, yet produced the 14th best PFF man coverage grade among linebackers. In zone? He ranked 33rd of 46 qualifying LBs and gave up the fifth highest yards per catch into his coverage.
Again, in theory, playing Kendricks more to his man-to-man strengths and giving him more opportunities to blitz (he created 10 pressures on 44 blitzes, the lowest of his career last season) could turn around what appeared to be a fading star.
If the Vikings keep their veterans, they won’t have oodles of cap space to spend on defensive players. They would hope to take advantage of Flores’ scouting background — he began in New England as a scouting assistant — to find players who both slide under the radar and fit his system.
Development would still need to be a major part of Flores’ job but if the main focus is simply getting more out of the parts that remain and finding players who fit his system on the cheap in free agency, the ex-Dolphins head coach has history that suggests he should be able to do that.
However, if GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah believes that it’s time for a shakeup and puts a young defense in Flores’ hands, he’s equipped there as well but it will take more patience.
The Vikings have four 2022 draft picks who could reasonably be expected to contribute next season in Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr., Brian Asamoah and Akayleb Evans. Playing more aggressively could fit Cine’s downhill style and Asamoah’s speed. The two corners were drafted on their ability to mirror receivers — a necessary tool for a defense that blitzed 40% of the time in 2020 and 2021 (second most in the league in both years, per Pro-Football Reference).
A two-year timeline would ask Flores to work with the ‘22 class, possibly draft a cornerback and work with the other unproven players they have on the roster with the aim to find some ballplayers who can be a part of the future. If they move on from Za’Darius Smith, they can find out how Patrick Jones looks with more snaps. If they move on from Harrison Smith, we can see Josh Metellus in a full-time role. If they cut Eric Kendricks, maybe Troy Dye gets his chance and we find out over 17 games which guys are fits for his defense.
That would go along with the plan to get the salary cap in order and prepare to aim for a massive jump in 2024. The Dolphins were the worst defense in the NFL in their first year under Flores and then ranked sixth the next year in no small part due to signing Van Noy and Byron Jones. A longer-term approach to 2023 would allow them to know exactly which spots they needed to fill in free agency the following year and go big in free agency rather than constantly patching holes.
You have to wonder which one of these avenues would be more attractive to Flores. Is he trying to turn around the defense with an aim to get more head coaching buzz next year? Or would he prefer to have time to build the defense in his vision?
Either way, the Vikings landed an experienced defensive coordinator with a recent record of quickly revamping a defense. That’s exactly what they needed after last year’s struggles.
Related: 10 facts about new Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores
Related: Mike Zimmer as Sean Payton's defensive coordinator in Denver?
