Brutal 2023 schedule should influence Vikings' offseason decisions
Winning 13 games in 2022 was a mystifying experience for the Minnesota Vikings and one would be crazy to think they could go 11-0 in one-score games and have Kirk Cousins lead eight fourth-quarter comebacks again in 2022. Maybe this season's Vikings weren't frauds, but they were certainly one of the luckiest teams ever.
Twenty-twenty-three will be a new animal and Minnesota's schedule will feature numerous encounters with dangerous beats, including the Eagles, Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers and many more of the teams that are expected to be among the best in the league. Should that factor alone influence decisions the Vikings front office has to make this offseason?
"I definitely think that it should," says Purple Insider's Matthew Coller. "These aren't teams that went all-in on this year and then could potentially collapse. All the talented players from these groups of teams are going to be back next year. not only that, the NFC North is primed to be more difficult."
Here's a reminder of the home games the Vikings have next season:
- San Francisco 49ers (13-4) - NFC West champs
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) - AFC West champs
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
- New Orleans Saints (7-10)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) - NFC South champs
- Green Bay Packers (8-9)
- Chicago Bears (3-14)
- Detroit Lions (9-8)
And the Vikings will play these eight teams on the road:
- Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) - NFC East champs
- Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) - AFC North champs
- Atlanta Falcons (7-10)
- Carolina Panthers (7-10)
- Denver Broncos (5-12)
- Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)
- Green Bay Packers (8-9)
- Chicago Bears (3-14)
- Detroit Lions (9-8)
That's a terrifying list of opponents that includes six teams that made the playoffs this season and division foes in Chicago and Detroit that are sure to be better.
"The landscape that they're facing along with all the decisions that they have to deal with this offseason should influence what they're going to do," said Coller.
"If they think they're going to rebuild an entire defense with a handful of free agents that are on the cheap and run it all back and then hope and pray that a couple of draft picks are going to make the difference, I think that they're living in a bit of a fantasy land. They have to look at how much the schedule from last year influenced them winning 13 games and how much more difficult it's going to be."
Minnesota GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has to make decisions about high-priced players that will have a significant impact on both the competitiveness of next season's team and the salary cap. According to OverTheCap, the Vikings are about $23.4 million over the 2023 NFL salary cap of $224.8 million.
The Vikings could cut seven popular veterans – Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, CJ Ham, Harrison Smith, Za'Darius Smith, Eric Kendricks and Jordan Hicks – and create more than $51 million in cap savings. Restructuring their contracts is also an option, and while that would free up cap space in 2023 it will only delay the strained cap situation until 2024 and beyond.
"They may have to take a little bit of a longer-term approach knowing that things are going to be tougher for this year than they were for this year," Coller concluded.
Related: Where the Vikings are spending in 2023: Offense, defense, special teams
Related: Running backs in the Super Bowl are why the Vikings can cut Dalvin Cook
