Bye-week comparisons: Moss vs. Jefferson, 2021 vs. 2022 and Super Bowl standards
With no opponent to preview this week, we have some time to pull back the layers on a few interesting statistical angles surrounding the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s dive right in…
Moss vs. Jefferson
Through the first 39 games of Justin Jefferson’s career he’s made 242 catches on 355 targets for 3,670 yards and scored 19 touchdowns.
Through the first 39 games of Randy Moss’s career, he caught 182 passes for 3,347 yards and scored 35 touchdowns.
Some things to note about the comparison:
— While Moss has fewer catches by a wide margin, his yardage total isn’t that far away from Jefferson and his touchdown total is nearly double. One in every five Moss receptions early in his career turned into a touchdown. You won’t be surprised to learn that Moss had the most touchdowns ever for a receiver through 39 games of his career (since the merger).
— Jefferson does not have the most yardage of all time through 39 games. He’s second to Odell Beckham Jr. by exactly 100 yards. Guess who’s third? Yes, it’s Moss.
— Of course, when we’re comparing a 2022 player to a late-90s player, we have to look at the differences in the game from back in the day because the playing fields aren’t equal. From the start of 1998 until the end of the 2000 season Moss had nine more touchdowns than the next best receiver (which was his own teammate Cris Carter). He also outgained all receivers in yards during that three-year stretch. In his first 48 games Moss scored 43 touchdowns. Jefferson has the most yardage since entering the NFL in 2020, fifth in receptions and 11th in touchdowns.
The league was a more challenging passing environment in Moss’s third year in the NFL. The average QB rating was 78.1 and teams completed 58% of passes and averaged 206 yards passing per game in the 2000 season. This year — even in a down season for QB play — the average QB rating is 88.7 and teams throw for 225 yards per game and complete 64% of passes. So Moss’s domination was more impressive versus his circumstances but Jefferson is in very rare air by putting himself in Moss’s ballpark.
2021 vs. 2022
We all agree that the old Bill Parcells saying, “you are what your record says you are,” rings true, so the Vikings are sitting in a better position at 5-1 than the 2021 squad, which was 3-3 through six weeks. But if we put on goggles that allowed us to see every statistic except the teams’ records through six weeks, how would they compare?
— The 2022 Vikings have produced 139 points (14th) for and allowed 118 points (11th) against. At this point last season, they had scored 147 (13th) and given up 137 (16th).
— The 2022 Vikings’ offense averages 5.4 yards per play (16th) and have 2,039 total offensive yards (18th). Through six weeks of 2021, they were gaining 5.9 yards per play (10th) and had 2,485 total yards (fifth).
— The present Vikings defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play, 29th in the NFL. The 2021 iteration had allowed 5.58 Y/P (17th) by Week 6. The 2022 Vikings have caused 10 turnovers (eighth best), versus only five by the 2021 Vikings (third worst).
— The 2022 Vikings have been penalized 25 times (second fewest) and opponents have been flagged 43 times (third most). The net yardage gained via referees is currently plus-187. Last year they were hit with 44 flags (fifth most) and benefitted from only 28 opposing team penalties (30th). Net yards: Minus-166.
— Kirk Cousins through six weeks: 88.7 QB rating, 75.4 PFF grade. Kirk Cousins through six weeks in 2021: 105.4 QB rating, 90.3 PFF grade.
Conclusions…
If we judge the 2022 Vikings versus the 2021 Vikings on the basis of offensive and defensive performance through six weeks, it’s hard to find much difference, aside from the play of Kirk Cousins, which was better to start ‘21 than it has been this year.
The gaps between the two clubs exist around the margins. Kevin O’Connell’s group has been more disciplined and been on the right side of a hoard of opposing penalties and turnovers. The present Vikings also have one of the top special teams units in the league, which has put them at the top of the league in average drive start for and against.
When players and coaches declare that they need to improve in a number of areas in order to be considered a legitimate contender, these numbers crystalize what they mean. It’s certainly possible the Vikings could continue to win the turnover battle, get clutch play from Cousins and the defense, dominate on special teams and play flag-free football and then end up with better results than the 2021 team. But those things can change quicker than the Minnesota temperature in October and the best way to stave off regression is to be better in the more sustainable areas, particularly offensive efficiency.
Where history may be on their side is with Cousins. He’s always one week away from doing the complete opposite of whatever has been happening recently. With every down, there has always been an up to follow. That could be on the way with Arizona and Washington upcoming after the bye.
What does an average Super Bowl team look like?
When you start 5-1, the bar gets raised. With the Vikings’ hot start comes higher expectations and a reasonable tendency to look forward toward the best-case scenario for the season’s outcome. But how do the Vikings match up against the teams that have recently made it to The Big Game?
Here’s a statistical look at teams represented in the last 12 Super Bowls…
— 20 of 24 Super Bowl representatives won 11 games or more
— The average conference champ has a point differential of plus-134
— The average team to reach the super bowl since 2010 scores 453 points. Eight teams scored more points in 2021
— 21 of 24 conference champs had team QB ratings over 95, 14 were over 100
— 17 of 24 teams held their opponents under 4,000 yards passing
— Zero teams that reached the Super Bowl allowed a passer rating against over 95 in the regular season and 20 of the 24 gave up under a 90 opposing QB rating
— 20 of 24 teams had at least 37 sacks, which would have been in the top half of the league in 2021
How the Vikings stack up…
— The Vikings are currently on pace to score 394 points, well below the average conference champion. Only three teams to reach the Super Bowl since 2010 have scored fewer (coincidentally two teams had exactly 394).
— They are on a good track with sacks and QB rating allowed (93.7) but the Vikings are on pace to allow more than 4,600 yards passing.
— Cousins’ QB rating isn’t in the ballpark of the average Super Bowl representative yet.
Conclusions:
Last year the Rams and Bengals were both outliers having below average point differentials for reaching the Super Bowl and this year we have seen a closer margin of victory than usual, partly because of the sheer number of teams struggling to escape mediocrity. In the coming weeks we are likely to see the pack separate between the clubs that have a chance to make a deep playoff run and those who were simply early-season pretenders. The numbers do not suggest the Vikings are a million miles away from contention but they aren’t in the red hot zone of a potential Super Bowl contender yet either.
And that’s why they play the games…
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