Can Justin Jefferson get to 2,000 yards?
Through 14 games, Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson has 1,623 yards and is within reach of becoming the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history. With three games to go, there's a path for Jefferson to hit this milestone, but there are several obstacles that Jefferson will need to overcome in order to get there.
It starts with the numbers game. Jefferson has averaged 115.9 yards per game. That ranks fourth in a single season since the NFL and AFL merged in 1966 but it wouldn't be enough to get the job done.
Jefferson needs to average 125.6 yards per game to reach 2,000 yards on the season. The good news is that Jefferson has posted 100 yards or more in five of his past seven games and is averaging 124.4 yards per game during that stretch.
If Jefferson stayed on his current trajectory he would wind up with 1,970 yards which would beat Calvin Johnson's NFL record of 1,964 yards set in 2012 and Cooper Kupp's 17-game record of 1,947 yards but come 30 yards short of reaching 2,000.
So how does Jefferson get there? It starts with Saturday's game against the New York Giants.
The Giants have been respectable against the pass this season, ranking 17th in passing yards allowed and 18th with 6.2 net yards per attempt. New York could be coming into Saturday's game short-handed as Adoree Jackson started the week by missing Tuesday's practice and head coach Brian Daboll has already announced safety Xavier McKinney will not practice this week due to a hand injury.
In Jefferson's case, Jackson's availability could be big for his quest for 2,000 yards. Jackson ranks 29th among corners in Pro Football Focus's coverage grades. If he misses Saturday's game, the Giants would likely turn to Fabian Moreau, who ranks 79th on the list and has allowed a 98.3 passer rating this season.
Daboll also mentioned Jefferson as a top threat in Tuesday's press conference, noting his ability to move all over the field.
"He's extremely talented," Daboll said. "He's got good quickness, good body control, can run any route. They line him up all over the place. I think they do a great job with him. He's hard to cover in man. He's got great awareness in zone. He's good after the catch. He can make contested catches. He's a problem. … And he can run anything you ask him to run. It's hard to read him because he's so good at the top of the route with his body control, his eyes, his head. He's really good."
If Jefferson can put up a modest game against the Giants, he'll face a pair of divisional opponents that he's already terrorized this season.
Jefferson demolished the Green Bay Packers for nine catches, 184 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 and will get the chance to ring in the new year with a duplicate performance in Green Bay.
One of the biggest storylines in the previous meetings was the decision for Jaire Alexander, who ranks 11th in PFF's grades, to not shadow Jefferson and he's remained a stationary cornerback throughout the season.
The Packers also have Rasul Douglas, who ranks 27th in PFF's grades. Miscommunication was another big theme in the opening-week victory so perhaps Jefferson can find a way to get loose and make the Packers pay again.
The final game is where the chase could get interesting. The Vikings are currently playing for the second seed in the NFC but if the San Francisco 49ers either jump into that spot or lock themselves into the three seed, it could give the Vikings nothing to play for.
With the Soldier Field turf playing a factor, Kevin O'Connell already hinted that resting his starters is a possibility if playoff seeding is in hand.
“We’re still…on the hunt for improvement and continuing to get better as a team," O'Connell said. "I think to do that you have to play football, but that does not mean that snap counts do not have to be monitored or we’ll take a look at an individual to make sure the priority is having a healthy team and having the best possible version of our team when we do get to the playoffs.”
If Jefferson does play, he'll take on Jaylon Johnson, who ranks 54th in PFF's coverage grades, and a secondary that he torched for 12 catches and 154 yards in a Week 5 victory in Minneapolis.
It could make for a situation similar to last year's season-finale against Chicago, where Jefferson needed just 12 yards to break Randy Moss's single-season franchise record of 1,632. Instead, the Vikings took a knee on the final play of the game instead of trying to get Jefferson and Zimmer defiantly said after the game "I don't care about records...I only care about wins."
That decision was met with criticism but was also under a different situation. With nothing to play for, many felt like the Vikings should have tried to give Jefferson the record. This year, with the playoffs on the line, it could be a much different scenario.
