Crashing running back market skews Dalvin Cook's situation

It's a bleak situation for free agent running backs.

If Dalvin Cook wants the big bucks, he might be playing the wrong position. The former Minnesota Vikings running back remains on the free agent market with just over a week before most teams begin training camp – and the running back market took big hits Monday when the Giants and Raiders failed to reach extensions with Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, respectively. 

According to reports, Barkley and Jacobs could be training camp holdouts. Both players were tendered $10.091 million franchise tags by their respective teams, which offer zero protection nor guaranteed money beyond the 2023 season. 

The market for running backs is trending down everywhere. 

Joe Mixon took a pay cut to stay with the Bengals and so did Aaron Jones with the Packers. Jones's salary feels like less of an insult because his new deal takes his 2023 salary from $16 million to $11 million, which in terms of cash value is tied with Alvin Kamara as the third highest-paid running back in the NFL in 2023. 

The only players making more cash than Jones this coming season are Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson ($13.7 million) and 49ers star Christian McCaffrey ($12 million). 

With no long-term deals for Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard, the last time a RB signed a long-term contract worth $10 million or more per year was Nick Chubb in 2021 — 716 days ago.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 17, 2023

Teams, to put it bluntly, don't seem to value running backs like they used to and they're don't seem inclined to spend big money on players, who in the modern NFL, aren't required to win Super Bowls – and that's bad news for Cook and fellow veteran free agents like Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt. 

ESPN's Bill Barnwell summed up the running back situation nicely in this story in which he notes that the best way Cook and others get money close to what they think they deserve is by waiting for running backs to get injured during training camp and the preseason. The idea is that desperate teams will pay for talent at a depleted position. 

"The best thing might actually be for them to wait. The ugly inevitability of football is that running backs will go down with injuries in training camp and during the preseason. When that opening comes, these players will have an opportunity to land a more meaningful opportunity from teams that will be more desperate."

Right now, at least according to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Patriots are favored to sign Cook, followed by the Dolphins, Jets and Broncos. The Patriots steam seems to be driven by speculation from ESPN's Adam Schefter, who on ESPN's Get Up suggested that New England could make a splash after missing out on wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who signed with the Titans. 

"Let's see if they take some of this money that could have been earmarked for DeAndre Hopkins, and try to reallocate it to a player like Dalvin Cook," Schefter said. 

If there's any team in the league that can still afford to dole out a big contract in 2023, it's the Patriots with more than $17 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap.