Does win over 49ers change Vikings' future outlook?
There has never been a more apt cliche to use following the Minnesota Vikings’ win over the San Francisco 49ers than “it’s a week-to-week league.”
On Monday night the Vikings converted 8-of-13 third downs and racked up 452 yards against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Eight days prior in Chicago they went 2-for-13 on third down and barely survived a brush with UDFA rookie Tyson Bagent.
The victory over San Francisco was everything the Vikings can be. The offensive play design baffled the 49ers’ coverage, the offensive line completely stifled the San Fran pass rush, the first-round pick and highly-paid tight end racked up catch after catch, the veteran quarterback delivered over and over and the aggressive defense caused three huge turnovers.
A one-paragraph description of the previous week’s game vs. the Bears would look a lot less favorable and probably include some words that are not approved by the FCC.
So how do the Vikings decide how much to react to what they just saw against San Francisco — both in the short and long term?
That starts with sustainability. Is what they did against the 49ers repeatable? On one hand, it could be a one-off game where an average team happened to win the turnover battle. But a lot of the impressive parts of the victory are areas where we expect them to be strong week after week. The offensive tackles should remain dominant, the Flores defense seems to be getting stronger, Justin Jefferson likely comes back soon and Cousins has often gone on hot streaks throughout his career.
It seems reasonable to bet on blazing run of strong Cousins play, not only because it’s a yearly staple but also the Vikings are set to face the light part of the schedule. Outside of the strong Saints defense against the pass, Cousins will do battle with the 15th, 19th, 32nd, 26th and and 21st ranked defenses in QB rating allowed in upcoming weeks. Kirk-vember is coming.
We could be looking at something reminiscent of 2019 when the Vikings started out 2-2 and then reeled off six wins in seven weeks behind a 126.5 Cousins QB rating in that stretch or the 2020 streak when 1-5 quickly turned into 6-6 as Cousins threw 15 TDs to 2 INTs and managed a 118.6 rating to get them back into the race.
Those two seasons tell two different stories. In ‘19 the Vikings finished with a 10-6 record, plus-104 point differential and upset the New Orleans Saints in the wild card round behind brilliant performances from Cousins and the defense. In 2020 they finished with a 7-9 record and minus-45 point differential as the magic ran out at the end of the year when the schedule got tougher.
The reality is that either outcome seems possible. The Vikings could roll through the next part of the schedule as they find their identity and go into the playoffs as a team nobody wants to face. They could also win a handful of games, hover around .500 and then have disappointments and fall short when they see Cincinnati and Detroit twice at the end of the year.
The accumulation of Vikings stats so far this season doesn’t really give us much insight into which way it will go. From analytics expert Ben Baldwin’s website, the Vikings’ Expected Points Added on offense and defense put them in the same ballpark as the Texans and Packers.
If you take out the turnovers, they look more like the Rams and Seahawks — two clubs fighting for potential wild card spots.
There is lots to factor when projecting what comes next. Jefferson’s return, a defense that has been almost completely healthy, what that might look like if the injury bug strikes etc.
They also must consider what their goals are. Does a team that’s 18th in scoring and 20th in points against through seven weeks have a chance to reach the playoffs? Possibly. Is it likely that they compete for a Super Bowl? The analytics site SumerSports puts them at 0.6% to raise the Lombardi Trophy. Of course, they could improve those odds by winning some impressive games in the next month.
In the short term, a win over the 49ers could mean they will bank on that run at the playoffs rather than trading Danielle Hunter. That’s if they beat the struggling Packers next week. Falling to Green Bay would only return them to exactly where we expected the Vikings to be after eight games just in the reverse order of results.
Right now they are sitting at 34% to make the postseason per Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics. A win over the Packers would get that closer to a 50-50 proposition. If there’s a coin flip chance to make the postseason, selling Hunter would be a crushing blow to those chances and to the morale of the organization even if it would play in their favor for the future. Undermining the coaches and players for some extra draft capital probably isn’t worth it. If they are 3-5 with a disappointing loss to the Packers then there is not a strong argument to stick with Hunter unless you think hoping and praying is a strategy to make the playoffs.
As for the long term, the quarterback decision is looming and it does matter that Cousins was fantastic against a team that has normally had his number. It makes a difference that he delivered in the biggest moment and that he’s among the league leaders in PFF grade, yards, touchdowns and quarterback rating. If Monday night was the turning point toward the Vikings surging toward a top five offense and serious contention because they are capable of going for 400-plus yards against an elite defense, that could change the math that led them not to give Cousins an extension this offseason. However, if this was the peak and the Vikings miss the playoffs and end up with only one postseason win in six years it’s hard to argue for another extension, even if his play wasn’t the culprit.
Still, it feels odd to put Cousins in the prove-it blender again. He was very good last season and won 13 games with numerous clutch performances. Where is the bar that gets him to a $45 million-plus extension? Is it a final stat line? Is it making the playoffs? A certain number of playoff wins? Is it O’Connell’s belief in him leading them to a Super Bowl while he’s still playing at a high level? Is there no line because they have already decided they’re not making that bet in the future? Does Cousins want to return or listen to other offers?
And there’s the elephant in the room of draft status. Every win sends them farther down the board making it harder to get the quarterback in the draft that they might want which increases the odds of the Vikings saying, again, “how will we find someone better?”
There is much still much to be decided. Heck, the Vikings could beat the Packers and suddenly look to add a pass rusher at the deadline and go for a Hockenson-esque move again.
It’s a week-to-week league, even when it comes to the trajectory of the franchise and that’s no different as they head to Green Bay.
