Draft simulation 3.0: Rebuilding the Vikings defense
Some of the world’s most popular NFL draft analysts have decided that the Minnesota Vikings are taking a quarterback — in particular, Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker. Two weeks ago NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah slotted him at No. 23 overall and then ESPN’s Todd McShay followed suit.
Bruce Feldman of The Athletic also mocked Hooker to Minnesota and explained his line of thinking on the Rich Eisen show, saying: “If he goes to the Vikings you don’t need him to come in and play right away. I think he can get acclimated. Kevin O’Connell is good with quarterbacks and we know the structure there should be good, there’s good young receivers. I think that would be an ideal spot for him.”
While the well-known mockers have placed Hooker in the Vikings’ QB room already that does not appear to be the case on a broader scale. The website NFLMockDraftDatabase lists Hooker as the consensus 44th overall pick.
Neither the experts nor the mocking world at large truly knows whether the Vikings will pick Tennessee’s QB but it’s far from the only direction the team could go when draft day finally arrives. The favorite heading into the stretch run before the draft would still appear to be a defensive player considering the Vikings’ struggles on the defensive side of the ball and subsequent hiring of defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
So let’s have a look at a defense-focused draft sim…
The Sim
About the picks
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
In this swing at projecting the draft, the Vikings traded down with the Cincinnati Bengals, sending the No. 23 and No. 158 picks for the 28th, 92nd and 131st selections. That gave them three top-100 picks and two fourth-rounders. By the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, the Vikings went from 1003 points to 1,076 points, which would be like adding another pick around 110th overall. In moving down, they did pass up some very good prospects, including Northwestern pass rusher Adetomiwa Adebawore, Boston College’s Zay Flowers and Pitt’s Calijah Kancey.
With defense in mind, Minnesota picked Kansas State star rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah. Over the last two years he’s posted 19.5 sacks for the Wildcats and produced a solid 8.74 out of 10 in Relative Athletic Score at the NFL Combine. He is undersized at 6-foot-3, 255 pounds but ranked among the elite in broad jump and three-cone numbers.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein wrote of Anudike-Uzomah: “His urgency leads to playmaking opportunities, but he will need to harness that energy and play with better control to become a more efficient defender. There is more polish needed, but Anudike-Uzomah’s NFL rush potential should eventually make him an NFL starter.”
The mock database and PFF both have this as a reach but from the perspective of positional value, need and fit, it makes sense to slightly reach. The Vikings’ edge rushing room presently has Za’Darius Smith, Danielle Hunter, Marcus Davenport. DJ Wonnum and Patrick Jones. Two of those players’ futures are unknown, the other is on a one-year deal and the others haven’t proven to be every-down players. With Flores playing a 3-4 inspired system with lighter outside linebackers as opposed to traiditional defensive ends, Anudike-Uzomah’s size shouldn’t be an issue.
WR, Michael Wilson
While the goal was to rebuild the defense as much as possible, trading back allowed for a luxury pick in search of a WR3 to go along with Justin Jefferson and KJ Osborn.
Wilson has not been on the field that often in the last three years, which may frighten some fans considering the injury troubles that befell the Vikings’ picks last year but he averaged 15.6 yards per reception last year and put together a Senior Bowl and Combine that turned heads. At 6-foot-2, 213 pounds, he had a lightning quick 10-yard split and benched 23 reps — 98th percentile for receivers.
Zierlein wrote: “Energetic wideout who plays the game with excellent urgency and effort. Wilson plays to his top speed at all times, but he needs to become a more efficient route runner to beat NFL coverage. The ball skills are a little below average, but he’s a cantankerous run blocker and has the potential to become a very good gunner on special teams.”
We wouldn’t expect Wilson to be a starter right away but he could contribute in the best-case scenario and develop with upside.
CB, Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson
An undersized corner that isn’t known for man coverage skills may seem like an odd pick at first but Hodges-Tomlinson can play ball. Last year he was targeted 81 times and allowed only 28 receptions into his coverage, per PFF. He led the entire nation in forced incompletions and picked off three passes.
Zierlein wrote: “Hodges-Tomlinson possesses the athletic profile and ball production to become a starting nickel back. He uses aggression and explosiveness to help overcome his size deficiency. He’s twitchy and sudden to press and hound receivers underneath. However, he needs to trust his technique instead of defaulting to excessive crowding and hand-fighting that turns into penalties.”
If the Vikings could find a playmaking nickel corner in the third round to pair with their other young corners Andrew Booth Jr., Akayleb Evans and Byron Murphy, they might be able to pull together a defensive back group for years to come even if everyone from that unit doesn’t work out.
DT, Kobie Turner
The Vikings’ starting interior DL looks set for next year with Dean Lowry and Harrison Phillips heading up the crew and Ross Blacklock and Khyiris Tonga rotating. That leaves them space to take a developmental player.
We could deem Turner an analytics darling since he has produced back-to-back seasons of elite PFF grades vs. the run and pass and managed 34 QB pressures in 323 pass rush snaps last year.
RB, Keaton Mitchell
The fourth round is a reasonable place to address the backfield in a draft that has numerous intriguing RBs. Mitchell was one of the most exciting runners in college football last year, gaining 7.2 yards per carry en route to over 1,400 yards. He scored a ridiculous 93.9 rushing grade from PFF. At only 5-foot-8, he isn’t likely to turn into the next Dalvin Cook but he could be the next David Palmer type.
How the entire first round played out
There are clearly some strange picks in this simulated first round, from Lukas Van Ness going top five to the Lions taking a tackle to the Jets picking Will Levis but the lead up to the Vikings’ pick with receivers and top corners coming off the board is plausible.
As you can see, the following three picks after Anudike-Uzomah are all players that could intrigue Minnesota in corners Cam Smith and Kelee Ringo along with interior rusher Bryan Breese. Also receiver Jordan Addison and corner Emmanuel Forbes were among the potential options in this scenario.
The bottom line
If the Vikings’ brass isn’t interested in a quarterback and they choose to take the most obvious path and stock up on defensive players, trading back could allow them to get a solid crop of prospects to fill out the most valuable positions. Would it be the most breathtaking outcome? Certainly not. Would it potentially help restock a defense that has been reeling for several seasons now? Yes. And that’s a necessary part of the “competitive rebuild.”