Evaluating NFL Super Bowl windows and how far the Vikings are from theirs
We are now less than a month away from the start of training camp. Rookies report on July 24 with veterans coming two days later on July 26.
And as every team and its fanbase does at the start of training camp, they begin to talk themselves into how this can be their year. The year the sea parts and a Super Bowl rings are waiting on the other side. While there’s nothing wrong with a little bit of optimism, the reality is most of those teams aren’t close to reaching a Super Bowl.
So, for Time Horizons week, I thought it would be good to look at how many teams can actually win the Super Bowl and how far away the Minnesota Vikings are from joining that list (if they’re not on it already).
Unquestioned contenders
Buffalo Bills, +600 to win the Super Bowl, win total O/U 11.5
The Bills return with a decent amount of the roster in 2022 that ranked No. 2 in Total DVOA by Football Outsiders. They ranked inside the top-10 in PFF’s offense and defensive grades. They were amongst the top five in yards and points scored and were the best defense in the NFL, both in standard metrics (points allowed) and by advanced metrics (No. 1 in DVOA).
Oh, and most importantly, Josh Allen is still the quarterback. They were 13 seconds away from advancing to the AFC Championship game last year and with the Chiefs taking a slight step back, the Bills assume the throne of the best team in the AFC. They have the best Super Bowl odds in the NFL.
Bills Super Bowl Window: 2022 - Until Josh Allen retires or leaves Buffalo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700, win total O/U 11.5
With 5,316 yards, 43 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 102.1 quarterback rating, No. 1 PFF grade among QBs, and second in NFL MVP Voting last year Tom Brady did not show many signs of slowing down, and until he does, the Buccaneers remain a top contender. If not for a puzzling all-out blitz by Todd Bowles in the NFC playoffs last season, the Buccaneers could’ve found themselves in the Super Bowl. That’s with massive injuries to Chris Godwin, Lavonte David, and others. And with a truly horrendous division around them, they should have an easy walk to home-field advantage in the playoffs.
But betting Brady will be playing for the Buccaneers beyond next year is a precarious proposition. He could retire or move on to another team, making the Bucs’ Super Bowl window a short one.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022
Kansas City Chiefs +1000, win total O/U 10.5
Patrick Mahomes. Next.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022 - Until Mahomes retires or leaves Kansas City
Los Angeles Rams +1100, win total O/U 10.5
With a Super Bowl trophy in hand, the Rams deserve to be on this list. They lost key pieces like Robert Woods and Von Miller, but have certainly invested even more money into their team, signing Allen Robinson and Bobby Wagner. Andrew Whitworth retired but the team immediately spent on his replacement, Joseph Noteboom, who got a $40 million contract. That may just keep the team stationary to where they were last season, but that was good enough to win a Super Bowl. With its division expected to be a bit easier than last season, good things should be expected again.
That being said, the team has pushed so much money down the road that it won’t have much flexibility down the line.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022-2024
Contenders if some things break right
Green Bay Packers +1000, win total O/U 11.5
The Packers have been an elite regular-season team since Matt LaFleur took over in 2019. Their record over that stretch? 39-10. But the team has only two playoff wins to show for it and now without Davante Adams, there is one major question mark. Are the Packers’ wide receivers good enough?
Sam Monson over at PFF analyzed this recently and I thought this was interesting:
“The bottom line is that the last (and only) time Rodgers had a receiving corps as weak on paper as this one looks was back in 2015 … Rodgers recorded the single worst PFF grade of his career that year, ranking 14th among quarterbacks. And though they made the playoffs, the Packers didn't last beyond an overtime loss in the divisional round to the Arizona Cardinals.”
The Packers have a clear deficiency with their skill positions. Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb, and Robert Tonyan are not an intimidating group. And while Rodgers is great, he’s always had a bonafide No. 1 WR. Without that, they’re going to need to prove they can still thrive.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022-2024
Los Angeles Chargers +1400, win total O/U 10.5
The only reason I didn’t put the Chargers in the unquestioned contenders' group was that they just haven’t been in the playoffs before. The group is undoubtedly talented and made some major moves with the signings of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson, but until I’ve seen LA in the playoffs, I can’t crown them as an unquestioned contender. Especially when they crumbled last season with a chance to make it in.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022-2027
Baltimore Ravens +2200, win total O/U 9.5
The Baltimore Ravens might be my favorite team of this bunch. It’s hard to understand how much they were decimated by injuries last year. They were by far the team most affected. Take a look at this chart from Football Outsiders, which shows the teams that had the most adjusted games lost (AGL). It takes into account players that weren’t able to play but also players that played at less than 100 percent.
J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Rashod Bateman, Ronnie Stanley, and Marlon Humphrey all missed considerable time. Lamar Jackson missed five games as well. The 191.2 AGL number is the highest in the Football Outsiders database.
That combined with several missed two-point conversions and 4th down plays that cost the Ravens games, I see positive regression in their future. They also play the easiest schedule according to Football Outsiders.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022-2025
Cincinnati Bengals +2200, win total O/U 9.5
Like the Rams, the Bengals need to be in this conversation because they made the Super Bowl last season. They’ve addressed their biggest weakness, which was offensive line play. Cincinnati ranked last in pass block PFF grade and second-to-last in run-block grade in the playoffs. So, they signed La'el Collins, Alex Cappa, Ted Karras, and Hayden Hurst. Pretty good.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2022-2027
Just missed out
I truly wanted to fly as close to the sun as I could with this exercise, meaning I left out some teams that are certainly talented.
If Trey Lance and the 49ers are lifting the Lombardi Trophy next February, I’m happy to be wrong. But from what Lance showed last season, it’s not justified.
The Broncos are certainly a talented team, but they’re the third-best team in the division destined for a No. 7 seed with an uphill battle in the playoffs.
The Cowboys were the toughest to leave off because they have a clear path to a division title. But they went backward in the offseason with the departures of Randy Gregory and Amari Cooper.
How far away are the Vikings?
Well, the betting odds say pretty far. The Vikings are +5000 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the 18th best odds in the NFL.
And before Minnesota can be seriously considered for this conversation, it needs to pick a direction. All of the teams that were listed as contenders have a clear direction. None have one foot in and one foot out of the door. They are all pushing for a Super Bowl. Every move they make is in pursuit of it. None of these teams are in a competitive rebuild. There’s a reason for that. Straddling that thin margin of error is extremely difficult. And teams that are winning nowadays are increasingly going all in. Obviously, the Rams’ strategy has long been talked about as they’ve pushed money down the road and gone big game hunting, ready to throw in whatever picks are necessary to get a deal done. And after the Super Bowl, they’ve doubled down with lucrative extensions for Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. Similarly, the Buccaneers went all-in on the roster around Tom Brady. Both teams ended up with a Super Bowl.
So, are the Vikings committing to Kirk Cousins or not? It always comes down to that question. However, the new Vikings’ brass decides to answer that will result in their time horizon coming quicker than staying in the middle. Building a roster for several different contingencies and timelines is building with a cracked foundation.
So what’s the Vikings' Super Bowl time horizon if they stick with Cousins?
Well, it takes some optimism to even open the door at all. After all, Cousins has been in the league for 10 years and has only made it to the second round of the playoffs twice. It shouldn't be lost on anyone that the above list of contenders is filled with exclusively franchise quarterbacks. The one potential exception? Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. But for that team to make it to the Super Bowl, they went as all-in as a team can go. If the Vikings have any hope for a similar outcome, a similar strategy will need to be executed. This timeline can be accelerated quickly through aggression in free agency and trading. Find the next disgruntled star and bring him to Minnesota. It could be Deebo Samuel, DK Metcalf, Marcus Peters, or whichever new top player wants out in a few months. Take advantage of what’s left of Justin Jefferson’s rookie deal and invest in making sure Andrew Booth, Lewis Cine, and Cam Dantzler are contributors while still on cheap deals. That’s necessary, and a part of why the Rams succeeded. Yes, they took big swings. But they also had the homegrown depth to fill the gaps. That hasn’t been present in Minnesota and needs to come through soon.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2023-2025
The path after moving on from Cousins
If you’re making me pick which path has a better chance of yielding a trip to the Super Bowl, it’s undoubtedly moving on from Cousins. We have a decade of history to show that Cousins isn’t a transcendent quarterback. And without one, making a Super Bowl run is extremely difficult.
But if the best chance for the Vikings to win a Super Bowl is with a new quarterback, that’s going to require much more patience from the fans, front office, and ownership, because the team likely won’t be in that window for the first two years of drafting a rookie quarterback, and that’s assuming the quarterback is at least average. It requires buy-in from the Vikings’ best player Justin Jefferson. He needs to be willing to stick it out through that. And it requires continued good drafting from Kwesi Adofo-Mensah as older players – like Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith – will be phased out before the next true contention window opens.
Super Bowl Time Horizon: 2024-2028
