Future of the Vikings, Part 1: Defensive line
Each year when the season comes to an end it’s time to deconstruct the roster take an in-depth look at every player on the 2023 Minnesota Vikings, how their season played out and what to expect at the position going forward. We start with the defensive line, a unit that the front office attempted to patch together but ultimately turned out to be a group that asked too much out of its key players. Let’s dive in…
Edge rushers
Danielle Hunter
Considering that he didn’t have a partner drawing away the defense’s attention or defensive tackles that contributed in the pass rush, you could make an argument that 2023 was Danielle Hunter’s best season. Only seven edge rushers finished with more pressures (80), only four players had more sacks (16.5), zero players had more tackles for loss. Not to mention that he played all 17 games for the second straight season after missing the better part of 2020 and 2021 with injuries.
Hunter is a free agent this offseason. The Vikings will undoubtedly try to bring him back but the price will be very much up for debate. There are productive rushers with reasonable deals that could be comparable like Montez Sweat ($24 million per year and $41 million fully guaranteed) and Rashan Gary ($24 million per year, $34 million fully guaranteed) but if Hunter wants to get into the ballpark of the Nick Bosas and TJ Watts that make $28-$34 million per year and have $80 million-plus guaranteed, then he will have to look elsewhere. Clearly his price was too high for a long-term deal last year but with desperate need on the D-line, will they slide the scales more in his direction?
DJ Wonnum
The 2020 draft pick tied his career high with 8.0 sacks yet he did not score well in underlying stats like pressures (49th of 59), PFF grade (46th) or pass rush (51st) win rate. There is a key stat that won’t get as much attention: snap count. After starter Marcus Davenport went down, Wonnum played almost every defensive snap and finished with 826 total, the 20th most overall in the NFL. While he didn’t get a ton of quick wins versus offensive tackles, he handled a huge workload with Brian Flores asking him to do a lot of different things and graded as an above average run defender. He deserves more credit for the Vikings defensive turnaround than he will get credit for in the numbers. And keep in mind how they looked without him…
Wonnum is a free agent. His best role is likely as a rotational player, which would put him in the $7-$10 million per year ballpark. Will the Vikings have room to bring him back? Or will they look for more of a consistent impact rusher?
Pat Jones
The 2023 season was Jones’ first year getting regular snaps and it was a rough ride. He graded 58th of 59 edge rushers by PFF and ranked as the second worst run defender and seventh worst tackler. The third-rounder in 2021 had just one sack and 32 pressures in 388 pass rush snaps. In the final week of the season he played 54 snaps in place of the injured Wonnum and didn’t register a single tackle.
After three years and little production, Jones will go into camp on the final year fighting to keep a roster spot.
Marcus Davenport
The Vikings took a big swing at Davenport, signing him to a one-year, $13 million contract and it did not work out. He played a total of 118 snaps, picked up 2.0 sacks and seven pressures. Davenport got hurt at the end of training camp and tried to play Week 2 versus Philadelphia and only made it through four snaps. When he returned in Week 4 against Carolina he was nothing short of terrific, showing the flashes of the freakish talent that made him a top draft pick of the Saints. But two weeks later he suffered an ankle injury that required surgery and kept him out for the rest of the season.
Davenport carries a $6.8 million dead cap hit in 2024. Assuming the Vikings do not sign Davenport to an extension, it will go down as a disappointing signing in Vikings history.
Andre Carter
The 6-foot-6 undrafted free agent wasn’t expected to see the field much this year as a development prospect. He played 68 snaps and got four pressures.
The Vikings will be looking for Carter to take a big step physically during this offseason and come into next training camp aiming to make noise.
Defensive tackles
Harrison Phillips
In 2021 and 2022, Phillips was one of the top run-stuffing defensive tackles in the league and graded above average but this season he ranked 47th of 73 defensive tackles overall, which is down from 23rd last year. But that number does not tell the story. Because of an injury to Dean Lowry and overall shortage of players on the D-line Phillips was forced to play a much larger role. He cleared his previous career high snap count by 145 or nearly three games worth. Phillips also played a different role. In the past he was a three-technique but this time around he lined up often over the center. To be exact, 249 snaps at nose tackle, per PFF. Listed at 307 pounds, that is a difficult role to take on at his size.
Phillips is under contract for 2024 at a cap hit of $8.8 million. He will be a valuable player for the defense again next year.
Jonathan Bullard
Another player who set a career mark in snap count by a country mile was Bullard. The journeyman’s highest usage before 2023 was 437 snaps for the Bears back in 2017. This year he was on the field for 643 total plays. That proved to be too much as he wore down toward the end of the year and graded under 40 by PFF in each of his final three games. Overall he finished ranking 63rd of 73 defensive tackles.
Bullard is a free agent. It would make sense to bring him back on a minimal contract but only with plans for a limited run-stuffing role.
Dean Lowry
Before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 11, it was a rough time for the former Packer. Lowry played 237 snaps and picked up zero sacks and four pressures. He graded as a well below average player, registering his lowest PFF mark of his career by far (47.4). Just two years ago he had 42 pressures for the Packers but he was either a poor fit or age caught up with him.
Lowry is under contract for next season. They can save $2.2 million by cutting him. The defensive line needs players but the team may choose to cut its losses.
Khyiris Tonga
An interesting breakout player late in 2022, the Vikings did not see the same fit for Tonga this season as they did during his first year as a Viking. He played 100 less snaps than ‘22 and produced nine pressures on just 79 pass rushes. In hindsight it may have made sense to play him more often in order to keep Phillips and Bullard more fresh.
Tonga is a restricted free agent so the Vikings will have a choice whether to give him an offer or let him walk.
Sheldon Day
After being cut out of camp, Day spent much of the year on the practice squad and ultimately got onto the field for the first time since 2021 in Week 12 versus Chicago. He ended up playing a rotational role in six games, totaling 125 snaps, three pressures.
Day is a free agent.
Jaquelin Roy
In 95 snaps the fifth-round rookie did not make a significant impact with two QB pressures but showed some flashes of strength. He will be an interesting player to watch in camp next season.
TJ Smith
For the third straight year Smith played a handful of snaps and was a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency player on the D-line. He is a restricted free agent.
Options in free agency
There is a bevy of big-name players along the defensive line who are scheduled to hit free agency but some will likely sign extensions with their teams. Here are some of the best options…
Edge rushers
Miami, Andrew Van Ginkel (6.0 sacks, 8th highest PFF graded edge rusher out of 122)
Jacksonville, Josh Allen (17.5 sacks, 11th)
Buffalo, AJ Epenesa (6.5 sacks, 25th)
New York Jets, Bryce Huff (10.0 sacks, 29th)
Houston, Jonathan Greenard (12.5 sacks, 32nd)
Carolina, Brian Burns (8.0 sacks, 40th)
San Francisco, Chase Young (7.5 sacks, 38th)
Kansas City, Mike Danna (6.5 sacks, 60th)
New England, Josh Uche (3.0 sacks, 94th)
Defensive tackles
Miami, Christian Wilkins (9.0 sacks, 24th)
Kansas City, Chris Jones (10.0 sacks, 8th)
Seattle, Leonard Williams (5.5 sacks, 19th)
Cincinnati, DJ Reader (1.0 sacks, 12th)
Baltimore, Justin Madubuike (13.0 sacks, 23rd)
Atlanta, Sheldon Rankins (6.0 sacks, 49th)
Options in the draft
Heading into the draft, there does not appear to be much buzz for the interior defensive line class. The website NFL Mock Draft Database lists only one defensive tackle as being projected as a first-round pick (Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton). Other names to watch as potential options for the Vikings in the second round include Miami’s Leonard Taylor, Michigan DT Kris Jenkins, and two Texas DTs T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy.
The edge rushers are expected to be more robust in the first round. Here are the players the database has presently projected as first rounders: Dallas Turner (Alabama), Laiatu Latu (UCLA), Jared Verse (Florida State), Demeioun Robinson (Penn State), Bralen Trice (Washington).
However, the early projections have a drop off between top talent between first-round prospects and the rest of the group. If the Vikings want a difference-making pass rusher, they may need to spend the 11th overall pick on that player.
The bottom line
The cupboard is bare along the Vikings defensive line and how much they can fix by opening day 2024 depends on how much capital they can invest. Decisions at edge rusher and defensive tackle tie into what the Vikings do at quarterback more than any other position group.
If they bring Kirk Cousins back then free agent dollars will be more limited but they will be able to spend their first-round pick on the D-line. If Cousins is not back then they can bring back Hunter or go big-game hunting at defensive tackle and edge rusher but would be limited in draft capital to acquire players to develop along the line for the future.
The only way to split the difference would be making serious sacrifices to the future with the salary cap. That is a possible approach if the Vikings feel they are a D-line away from being a serious contender. But the Davenport signing shows that one bust signing can have long-term effects on the cap.
