How Daniel Jones' Giants contract demands could influence Kirk Cousins' extension
A few weeks ago, Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that he believes Kirk Cousins will return as the starting quarterback in 2023. The leader of a team that won 13 games and the NFC North title, it would make sense for the Vikings to bring Cousins back, but with the year-to-year nature of his contract, this year presents another decision to make.
In past years, this situation has required the Vikings to extend Cousins. Entering the final year of his initial three-year, $84 million contract in 2020, Cousins signed a two-year, $66 million extension to stay in Minnesota. Cousins was set to enter the final year of that extension last season, but the Vikings decided to sign Cousins to a one-year, $40 million extension that once again lowered his cap number.
Cousins will enter another lame-duck scenario next season if the Vikings don't work out a deal, but the Vikings actually have options this time around. While Cousins's contract called for an astronomical cap number at the time the first two extensions were reached, his cap hit for 2023 is a more palatable $36.25 million.
This seems like a lot of money to pay a quarterback with just one playoff win in five seasons with the Vikings, but it's gotten to the point where Cousins is playing for the market rate across the league.
Look no further than what's going on with the team that bounced the Vikings from the playoffs last season – the New York Giants.
Daniel Jones, who shredded the Vikings' defense to historic proportions in the Wild Card round, is a pending free agent and a report from SNY's Connor Hughes suggests that he looking for a contract with an average annual value of $40 million. While Hughes doesn't predict the Giants to give Jones that big of a contract, he also says an "appropriate figure" would be around $35 to $37 million.
If Jones signs this contract, there's a good chance that Cousins's agent, Mike McCartney, will decide his client needs a raise.
Jones entered this season with a 12-25 record in his first three seasons, dealt with injuries and turned the ball over 36 times. If anything, Jones was regressing after 3,027 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his rookie year and now he's about to get paid. Compare this to Cousins, who has thrown for 30 or more touchdowns three times and over 4,000 yards four times during his five seasons in Minnesota.
If Jones gets somewhere in the $30 million range, Cousins's camp will likely look to give his client another lucrative one-year extension, but that's where the Vikings will need to be careful.
Cousins will turn 35 in August, which puts him on the edge of the age cliff. Since the merger in 1970, only 10 quarterbacks have compiled a passer rating over 100 in a single season, and none of those quarterbacks went on to win the Super Bowl.
There have been outliers as 37-year-old Rich Gannon won an MVP award in 2002 and 38-year-old Peyton Manning won a Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos in 2015. John Elway won back-to-back Super Bowls at 37 years old in 1997 and 38 years old in 1998, and Tom Brady won three Super Bowls after turning 35 in 2012.
In each instance, those quarterbacks were surrounded by a team that was loaded with talent, which is something you might not be able to say about the Vikings. While there are some young building blocks such as Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw, there are several veterans that need to be replaced – especially on the defensive side.
With the Vikings currently $23.2 million over the salary cap and with just four picks in the upcoming draft, they might not have the talent to carry Cousins to the finish line.
This is important because Cousins may have already shown signs of decline. In 2022, he posted his lowest completion percentage (65.9%) since 2017 and his lowest air yards per attempt (7.0) and passer rating (92.5) since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. He also took more hits and sacks than any quarterback in the league.
Even if you believe that Cousins's eight fourth-quarter comebacks weren't a fluke, it's unlikely he's the T-1000 of NFL quarterbacks. If Cousins had the season he had at age 25 (like Jones did in 2022), the Vikings might be more inclined to give him what he wants. At age 35, it might lead them to the trade market.
If the Vikings choose to go that route, they won't have a shortage of suitors. The quarterback carousel has already begun and after Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr find their landing spots, Cousins could be of interest for quarterback-needy teams.
Look no further than the other team in New York as Jets owner Woody Johnson openly gushed over the possibility of acquiring Aaron Rodgers without actually mentioning the Packers quarterback. If Rodgers emerges out of his darkness retreat with the idea of staying in Green Bay or retiring, it could leave the Jets desperate for an upgrade.
After the Vikings gave Cousins a no-trade clause in his current contract, Cousins would have to approve of any trade. It might be the most logical solution if Cousins wants a new contract and is unwilling to lower his cap number.
Either way, the Vikings will have to make a decision about how long they want to keep Cousins this spring. If they feel like his asking price is too high, it might be time to move on.
