How much does the Vikings' offense need to improve this offseason?
Since the Minnesota Vikings were eliminated from the playoffs via an abysmal defensive performance that saw them allow 431 yards and 31 points to the New York Giants, most of the discussion surrounding the team has been centered around the defensive side of the ball.
That makes sense since the defense’s failure to get a key stop against Daniel Jones and Co. cost them a chance to play the San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round (and considering they immediately made a change in defensive coordinators right after their loss to the G-Men).
But in the press conference to announce Brian Flores as the new DC, head coach Kevin O’Connell added that he is taking a close look at everything that was under his control in Year 1. That should include the scheme and personnel on the offensive side. If the Vikings believe that they are only an improved defense away from being a Super Bowl contender, they aren’t truly seeing what’s in the mirror.
One thing we know about teams that reach the Super Bowl, especially in recent years, is that they have dominant offenses. These days if you don’t rank among the most efficient offenses in the NFL your chances of getting a ticket to the dance are worse than getting into Taylor Swift at a reasonable price. The last struggling offense to reach the Super Bowl belonged to Peyton Manning’s Broncos in 2015. That was five T-Swift albums ago and Denver’s Super Bowl opponent had the best offense in the NFL that year. Since 2019, the biggest outlier to reach The Big Game is the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals, whose offense still totaled the seventh most points in the NFL.
A sharper way to evaluate an offense’s effectiveness is by Expected Points Added, which compares performance vs. situation.
Here’s how the 2022 Vikings compare in offensive EPA to every team that has reached the Super Bowl since 2019:
As you can see, the Vikings’ offense was strong. They ranked ninth in EPA, just ahead of the Dolphins and behind the Jaguars. In comparison to the big boys, however, they were not particularly close.
It’s more telling to look at the actual totals than the ranking. The distance between the No. 1 and No. 8 offense is far greater than and No. 8 and No. 16. By how much? The Vikings (ninth) were only 26 points better than the 16th ranked team (Seattle) but 192 points behind Kansas City and 137 short of Philadelphia. Even the “outlier” Bengals of 2021 were farther ahead of the Vikings than the Vikings were above an average team this year.
Where do they need to make up ground?
The most obvious area is the running game. At minus-15 points, the Vikings ranked 27th in rushing EPA. They were 118 points short of the Eagles (No. 1) and 68 points behind the Chiefs. The 16th ranked team’s running game was worth 25 more points than the Vikings. Part of that number is influenced by the Vikings ranking 27th in carries but they were also 26th in yards per attempt.
The NFL appears to be getting more savvy with the ways in which they run the ball. Combine that with defenses taking emphasis away from run stopping and rushing efficiency counter-intuitively is now more valuable toward offensive production than in recent years. In 2022, 16 teams were at least plus-10 in running EPA. In 2018, only eight teams were plus-10 and in 2015 only four teams were even on the positive side.
Bottom line: Having a counterpunch on the ground against defenses that sell out to stop the pass appears to be paying dividends. The Vikings had no such counterpunch. That doesn’t mean teams should start drafting running backs in the first round again but it does mean that clubs who struggle to run effectively will face a steeper uphill climb to reach Super Bowl levels offensively.
While running does matter, passing is the meal ticket. In total passing EPA, the Vikings finished seventh, their highest mark since 2017 (fourth). Like their rushing EPA, the Vikings’ passing stats are influenced by their high rate of attempts. In terms of a per-drop-back basis, here’s how the top 10 teams in total EPA stack up:
Just like with total EPA, ranking seventh doesn’t exactly tell the story when the Vikings are only halfway to the Chiefs in EPA/drop-back.
So where is the gap between the Vikings and elite passing games? Negative plays and explosive plays. They only ranked 12th in net yards per attempt when adjusted for sacks and interceptions. The Vikings had the eighth most sacks (334 yards lost to sacks) and seventh most INTs and finished 16th in passing plays of 20-plus yards. The top two teams in 20-plus yard throws? Kansas City and Philadelphia.
It doesn’t take a microscope to find the Vikings’ struggles with interior pass protection. Despite sporting two elite tackles, they still graded 19th overall in pass blocking and had two of the top five guards in pressures allowed. Of teams to make the Super Bowl, only the 2021 Bengals had a worse pass blocking grade than the Vikings and both clubs in 2022 ranked in the top 10.
There’s also a need for someone aside from Justin Jefferson to make plays downfield. Jefferson had 17 catches that traveled more than 20 yards from the hand of Kirk Cousins in 2022. The rest of the team had 11 combined (per PFF). Third receiver KJ Osborn only had 10 receptions on 27 throws that traveled beyond 10 yards.
As a result, the Vikings lacked in consistency in comparison to the Super Bowl squads. Unsurprisingly, the only team that ranked outside of the top six in percentage of drives in which points were produced was the 2021 Bengals. The Vikings were 17th last season.
Minnesota finished with the 11th most punts. Kansas City had the third fewest, Philadelphia had the fifth fewest.
So while the Vikings’ offense was far from their biggest problem, it also wasn’t enough of a strength to overcome the defensive woes and did not meet the standard of teams that reach football’s pinnacle.
How can they get better with many needs on defense?
Certainly there were schematic areas that could be improved, like in the play-action game where Cousins only ranked 12th in QB rating, his lowest since 2016. Or in the screen game, which gained about 20% of its yards for the entire season (410 total) on one touchdown by Dalvin Cook against the Colts and otherwise struggled to find consistency.
But that only goes so far. As Pat Shurmur used to say: “It’s the players, not the plays.” Better pass protection and more unstoppable weapons i.e. Philly/San Francisco probably make up a good chunk of the answer to the Vikings’ good-not-great conundrum. Knowing what we know about offense and success in the NFL, could an option be on the table to invest more into the offense this offseason and let Brian Flores attempt to tape together the defense?
And, of course, the quarterback. The Vikings have a decision to make on Cousins’s future. Central to that choice is whether they think there is a ceiling on any offense operated by the veteran QB. After a year where his statistics dipped when more was put on his plate, the Vikings finally have an answer to what it means to lean into Cousins and the passing game after years of being a run-first offense. There’s also the question of whether they could ever build enough around him while he’s being paid at the top of the QB market every year.
Whatever the answer, the Vikings’ offense has spent years feeling so close and yet so far away. Under Gary Kubiak in 2020, they ran out the ninth best offense in EPA. They were also ninth in 2019. As was the case in 2022, they were more than 100 points behind the No. 1 offenses in those years too.
If the aim is to be good, they can reach that bar easily in 2023 without many changes. If the aim is to be great, re-signing a solid center and restructuring a contract or two won’t be enough.
