How much should the Vikings play starters over the next 3 games?
Talk about good problems to have: The Minnesota Vikings have a difficult decision to make over the next three games about how they want to balance the need to remain healthy heading into the playoffs and the push to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC in order to guarantee a home game in the divisional round.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell indicated on Monday that he is aware of the need for some of his players to manage how much wear and tear they are putting on their bodies before the playoffs.
“We’re still on the hunt for improvement and continuing to get better as a team, to do that, you do have to play football across the board, but that does not mean that snap counts don’t need to be monitored,” O’Connell said. “We’ll take a look at each individual situation to make sure — the priority is having a healthy team and the best possible version of our team when we do get to the playoffs.”
However, O’Connell also pointed to the desire to give themselves a chance to host a divisional round playoff game as motivation for playing starters and pushing for wins in the final three games.
“There’s a lot to still actively chase… week-in and week-out from a preparation standpoint to understanding what the result may mean for potential seeding,” O’Connell said. “Maybe if you’re able to get through that first round, the opportunity to maybe host another playoff game, I think our fans, as great as they’ve been all season, we should try to be hunting playing as many home games as we possibly can, just cause not only they deserve it, but it also is an incredible home atmosphere and advantage for us when it comes time to try to start winning one game a week by any means necessary.”
So, which direction are they going to go? Full Herm Edwards mode (“You play to win the game”) or trying to rejuvenate players who have grinded all season to get them to an NFC North title?
“We’ll take a look at the whole thing,” O’Connell said. “We’ll make sure the guys that have bumps and bruises and have played a lot of snaps… that we’re finding ways to not only give them some time here and there but also the development of players that we’re excited to see continue to grow.”
If you had to draw a conclusion from O’Connell’s comments about which direction they will go, you would guess that over the next two games we will see more rotations involving players like linebacker Brian Asamoah, safety Josh Metellus and pass rushers DJ Wonnum and Patrick Jones. They might opt to play it safe with players who might be listed as questionable under normal circumstances in order to allow for full recovery. And then when it comes to Week 18, it’s a matter of seeing whether it’s going to matter.
The San Francisco 49ers (10-4) have a better conference record than the Vikings, which would break the tie if the two teams ended up with the same record. Should San Fran win their next two games and the Vikings need to win in Week 18, it would put O’Connell in the difficult position of choosing between trying to beat the Bears with his second string or going 100% with the starters to lock in the No. 2 seed.
It’s plausible the 49ers could end up 13-4 because they will play Washington at home, the Raiders on the road and the Cardinals at home in their final three games. They will do so as a fresh team having just come off their bye week.
Nothing is a lock in the NFL but the Vikings might need to go 3-0 in order to keep their hold on the guaranteed divisional around playoff game.
Is that worth the possible risk of losing a key player to injury?
History would lean toward yes.
Since 2010 there have been 48 divisional games and the road team won just 13 of them.
There is some bias in those results. The team playing at home would have the better record during the season so they’d very likely be the stronger club. When we look at how teams performed versus the point spread, the numbers are quite different. Road teams covered in 25 out of 48 games.
Also, in 18 of the 48 games, the road team was more than a touchdown underdog. There are 20 games since 2010 in which the road team was less than a touchdown dog and three where the road club was favored. In the 17 matchups where the away team was underdogs (as the Vikings will undoubtedly be if they go on the road) there were seven road winners and six losses by one score.
Last year the Rams and Bengals both went on the road and won in Round 2 and recent studies have suggested that home field advantage is less advantageous than ever. This year the Vikings are 4-4 versus the spread at home and 2-3-1 on the road. Their point differential at home is plus-13 and minus-11 on the road. Neither of those stats are particularly conclusive.
The only guidepost games for figuring out what the betting world would think about the Vikings in the playoffs is their recent home matchup with Dallas in which they were 1.5 point underdogs and road contest with Buffalo where they were 6.5 point dogs. That’s not a negligible difference.
But how different would their chances be with a key injury?
Here’s a few examples of how heavily they lean on star players:
— Justin Jefferson has 1,623 yards receiving this season. That’s 42.5% of Kirk Cousins’ total passing yards.
— Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter have 127 combined QB pressures. The rest of the entire defense has 139 (per PFF).
— Patrick Peterson has three INTs and nine pass breakups. The rest of the cornerback group has zero INTs and 15 PBUs.
— Christian Darrisaw has an 80.3 PFF pass blocking grade. His backup Oli Udoh had a 39.0 pass blocking grade in 2021.
— Garrett Bradbury has a career-best 70.2 PFF grade, whereas his backup Austin Schlottmann has a 46.6 grade.
— Kirk Cousins has a 97.9 career QB rating in 134 starts, Nick Mullens 87.3 in 17 starts.
Regardless of these players’ career health records, there’s always risk involved in playing football. Smith and Hunter have been on the injury report at different times. Bradbury has missed the last two games. Peterson left the field with cramps twice versus Indy. Cousins has taken big hits throughout the year and over the last few weeks Jefferson has repeatedly taken big hits as opponents look for any way possible to slow him down.
“I think it was about the fifth or sixth week in a row he took a type of hit that drew a flag,” O’Connell said. “Clearly, there’s an emphasis on the teams we’re playing that some of those hits they don’t just seem to be by accident at times.”
The best possible outcome would be the Vikings winning the next two games and the 49ers unexpectedly dropping one of the next two. But if that doesn’t happen and they are in a must-win spot to keep the No. 2 seed in Week 18, O’Connell will have a very hard decision on his hands. You have to win the first one to get to the divisional round but life wouldn’t be easy on the road in Round 2, either.
Of course, Vikings fans have missed debates like this in recent years.
Related: Brian Murphy: The 2022 Vikings are a decade's worth of madness
Related: O'Connell says big hits on Jefferson 'don't seem to be just by accident'
