If Vikings want a receiver, there are many styles and sizes to choose from
Is this a good draft class for receivers?
Well, it depends on how you look at it.
On one hand, there isn’t a super prospect with a flawless resume. There’s no Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones or Ja’Marr Chase. However, there are a number of high quality prospects whose shortcomings could lead to them being available when the Minnesota Vikings pick (even if they elect to trade down).
If the Vikings are interested in taking a receiver following the release of veteran Adam Thielen, chances are that, based on draft projections, they will have lots of different playing styles to choose from. Would they rather have a quick route runner to catch passes underneath or someone to stretch the field? Do they want a slot or outside receiver? Does height matter to them or not?
Before we get into the ways in which each player is different and how that might impact the Vikings’ decision making, it should be mentioned that receiver is one of the highest surplus value positions in the NFL. Surplus value is defined by the gap between what veterans get paid vs. rookie contracts. In the case of receivers, PFF’s Timo Riske found that there is a $22 million gap for elite receivers, $14 million for above average and $7.5 million for average. The only positions with higher surplus value are quarterback and edge rusher. So if the Vikings drafted a contributing No. 2 receiver, that would have the same surplus worth as a superstar tight end, running back or center and nearly as much as a safety, guard or linebacker.
Anyway, let’s have a closer look at the differences between the prospective wide receivers. There are 12 receivers whose average mock-drafted position ranks inside the top 100 (per PFF). They are: Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Michael Wilson, AT Perry, Jalin Hyatt, Tyler Scott, Parker Washington and Kayshon Boutte.
Just by looking at how often each player lined up in the slot we can already start to see the characteristics of each:
*Note: Smith-Njigba did not have enough snaps in 2022 to put on the chart but his slot performance in 2021 was prolific. He caught 92% of his total targets from the slot and gained 1,367 yards.
Two questions arise from the disparity in slot snaps: Would the Vikings prefer a receiver who has played a lot in the slot or are they looking for more of an outside receiver type?
There’s a case for viewing it either way. The Vikings used KJ Osborn in the slot on 58% of his snaps last season (per PFF) and he caught 41 passes on 53 for 500 yards and had a 137.3 rating when targeted. Kevin O’Connell might want to keep him in a position where he’s been successful rather than having a rookie take those snaps.
The Vikings’ head coach might also be looking for a receiver who can stretch the field vertically to create more space underneath for Justin Jefferson. That wouldn’t eliminate someone like Jalin Hyatt, who ran a 4.4 40-yard dash and had 677 deep passing yards last year but it might take some of the true slot types out of the conversation.
On the other side of the coin, the Vikings (and the NFL in general) use condensed and bunch formations often. Out of 102 receivers who had at least 35 targets last season, 72 took at least a quarter of their snaps from inside. As we go forward and the league continues to lean into quick passing games to counter two-deep safety schemes, receivers who get open fast from the slot could be more valuable.
Oh, and the fact that Justin Jefferson dropped in the draft in part because of his high percentage of slot snaps might suggest that a college coach’s player usage may not be indicative of what he can do at the next level.
We might get a clearer picture of a receiver’s playing style when we add average depth of target to the conversation. Here’s the 11 receivers’ ADots:
*(Smith-Njigba’s ADOT in 2021 was 9.3).
When we combine slot usage and depth, we can see that AT Perry and Jalin Hyatt were the only real downfield receivers and North Carolina’s Josh Downs was the most pure underneath receiver last year. Interestingly he had one of the best contested catch rates in college football (72%).
Downs represents a trend in this class: A severe lack of size. At 5-foot-9, 171 pounds, he would instantly be one of the smallest players in the league. But he’s not alone on our list.
— Tyler Scott: 5-foot-9, 177 pounds
— Zay Flowers: 5-foot-9, 182 pounds
— Tank Dell: 5-foot-8, 165 pounds
— Parker Washington: 5-foot-9, 204 pounds
Should there be concern about shorter wide receivers?
This group may test history because in the past, 5-foot-10 has been the shortest that receivers can be in order to be stars. From 2010-2022 the only Pro Bowl receivers shorter than 5-foot-10 were Steve Smith Sr. and Wes Welker. There have been a handful of serviceable receivers like Taylor Gabriel, Andrew Hawkins, Deion Branch and Marquise Goodwin but few surpass the WR3/WR4 threshold.
If we bump that up to 5-foot-10, we get Antonio Brown, Golden Tate, TY Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, DeSean Jackson, Doug Baldwin and numerous others.
What’s in an inch? Weight matters too. Receivers under 175 pounds have also had trouble dominating in the NFL. Is that a product of opportunity? Is the game changing enough where these guys will succeed? Is there enough scheme creativity to get them the ball? Many have tried i.e. Tavon Austin, Tutu Atwell, Andy Isabella etc.
Quentin Johnston and AT Perry are the only tall receivers at 6-foot-3. Not surprisingly, it’s far easier to find success stories from the big guys. Maybe that’s about opportunity but names like Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey, Jordy Nelson, Michael Thomas, Michael Floyd and Eric Decker clock in at the same size.
Johnson and Perry both went down the field by ADOT graded well by PFF when playing against man coverage. If the Vikings are looking for outside receivers, they fit the profile.
What about everybody else?
There’s so many nuances to the receiver position that it can be difficult to pick apart. How do we quantify a good ball tracker? Or a good route runner?
PFF’s grades aren’t perfect in those regards but they might tell us something. Looking at the last 10 clear-cut first/second round success stories at receiver from recent drafts, here’s what their PFF receiving grades looked like the year before they were drafted:
Here’s how this year’s class looks:
Our group of past draft stars had an average PFF grade of 86.3 in their final college seasons. Only Downs and Dell reach that mark and — as we’ve established — both did it with a lot of quick throws in the slot.
So we have a group of different types of receivers whose profiles do not scream superstar. But because of the surplus value and recent history, that doesn’t mean they are bad picks. PFF wrote a few years ago about the need for secondary receivers in the playoffs. There have also been a bunch of mid-round receivers in the second/third rounds who have worked out like AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin etc.
The Vikings can’t hit the value lottery if they don’t play. Which lottery ticket to select, however, is no easy choice with this year’s receiver class.
