Is the Hendon Hooker hype real? An investigation...
Hendon Hooker went down with a torn ACL on November 19, 2022. At that time, Tennessee quarterback he was being projected to be selected in the middle of the second round of the NFL Draft. After the NFL Combine, where players’ draft stocks are generally solidified, Hooker’s status in the mock draft universe dipped nearly out of the second round. On Tuesday, nearly five months after his injury and more than a month following the Combine, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. added Hooker’s name to the list of those mocking him in the first round — though he broke the mold of placing him with the Vikings and instead sent the prospect QB to Seattle.
His projected place in the draft is now vastly higher than at any point during his entire breakout 2022 season. Via the website GrindingTheMocks, here is a look at his drastic fall and meteoric rise — despite playing zero football:
What in the name of Smokey is going on here?
When we look back at scouting reports written even a month ago, there are a lot of critiques of Hooker’s game that do not make him seem like a first-round talent.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlien, for example, compared Hooker in his draft profile to Desmond Ridder (a 2022 third-round pick) and wrote about his potential pitfalls, saying: “Hooker’s age and ACL tear will be starting points for many draft conversations, but the most important question to be answered is whether he can thrive outside of the Tennessee offense. Hooker was frequently a half-field reader, which means he could lean on spacing, speed and/or route combinations to make life easier.”
There were some in the draft analysis world who were intrigued during the college season. USA Today’s Luke Easterling ranked Hooker above Kentucky’s Will Levis in November. Around the same time, PFF’s Mike Renner included a note that he “skyrocketed up draft boards” with his play. Still, after his injury the buzz faded. Easterling mocked Hooker 71st back in early March and PFF still put Tanner McKee of Stanford ahead of Hooker in its draft guide.
After a deep search of all things internet, March 22, 2023, appears to be the first time Hooker was credibly mocked in the first round — that was by NFL Network’s highly respected draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah. In an interview with Vikings.com, Jeremiah said, “Trying to find a home for Hendon Hooker and you’re looking at teams toward the back half of Round number one, you can make a strong case that the Minnesota Vikings would make some sense.”
After that, the mocks rolled in with Hooker connected to Minnesota. ESPN’s Todd McShay and The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman were the most notable analysts placing the two together. Feldman told Rich Eisen that he believed Hooker was the perfect fit for the Vikings because he can sit for a year and develop behind Kirk Cousins.
The steam grew from there.
"There are plenty of teams that have him ... third on their list, right below those top two in Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud," NFL Network reporter James Palmer said on Steve Smith's "Cut To It" podcast. "Now, there's a pretty sizable gap between the top two and then Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Hendon Hooker slides right in there. ... There are plenty of teams that are like, 'I like this guy much better than Anthony Richardson or Will Levis.'"
Former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum took it one step farther, declaring Hooker the best QB in the draft.
The wheels have officially come off. Kiper Jr. even responded to Tannenbaum telling him to hold his horses. By next week Hooker will be Joe Montana and Cam Newton rolled into one.
How seriously should we take the buzz?
If you have a memory that lasts any longer than that fish from Finding Nemo, you’ll remember that QB excitement got pretty hot last year and ended up with an ice bath being thrown on it during the actual draft. Per GrindingTheMocks, the draft analysis universe expected five quarterbacks to be taken in the top 50 picks. There was just one selected — Kenny Pickett.
But that shouldn’t totally discredit the draft projection illuminati. Last year’s QB freefall was unusual compared to the past.
For example, in 2021, five QBs were predicted to be selected in the top 10 by GrindingTheMocks’ data. Ultimately all five of those players were gone by the middle of the first round. That’s not far off.
In 2020, mock drafters came crazy close to hitting the exact picks where the QBs would go. The mock collective had Joe Burrow No. 1, Tua Tagovailoa No. 4, Justin Herbert 10th, Jordan Love 24th and Jalen Hurts 57th. They went 1, 5, 6, 26 and 53.
The 2019 QB class only missed on Drew Lock. They had the right order and with the QBs going at No. 1, 10, 14, 19. Instead they went 1, 6, 15 before Lock was taken at 42.
In 2018, four QBs were estimated to go in the top 10 and four QBs went in the top 10. Lamar Jackson was expected to be the odd man out and he was — though a little lower than the mock community thought.
For those who weren’t counting along the way, mockers assigned 20 players with first-round expectations and 18 of them actually went in the first round between 2018 and 2022. Drew Lock and Malik Willis were the only misses.
As we speak, Hooker’s Expected Draft Position on GrindingTheMocks is 33rd. By the end of the week he will very likely crack the first round.
There is reason to take that seriously, particularly when you consider how the mock world works. We can see from Hooker’s stock that the mass predictions are shaped by several major prognosticators who are dialed in with the scouting community. While nobody comes close to getting it right all the time, the leaders in the space have been historically good at pointing in the correct general direction when it comes to where quarterbacks will land.
As far as Hooker’s connection to the Vikings, however, that’s where things go astray when relying upon the NFL Draft’s version of weathermen. The top 2021 mock draft picked 14 of the 32 picks correctly. Many highly credible analysts got only one: Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall.
So it’s very plausible that Tennessee’s outstanding quarterback will be picked in the first or second round but it’s nowhere near as likely that the professional guessers nailing the correct team too.
That’s not to say that it won’t happen, but some of the tea leaves that analysts are reading might not be as clear when it comes to the Vikings and Hooker. Do Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah believe in a 25-year-old prospect enough to tie themselves to him? What about the huge dead cap hit that Kirk Cousins leaves if he exits after 2023? Would they want to be in Year 3 of Hooker before reaping the benefits of the rookie QB contract? Won’t they have more draft capital to move up to get a younger prospect next year?
The idea that the NFL is impressed by Hooker is very plausible but the Vikings and Hooker are tied together with loose threads. We’ll all find out together soon if the tea leaves were right or not.
