Justin Jefferson lands on IR, how will Vikings' offense adapt?
EAGAN — Even with a shortened game due to a hamstring injury on Sunday, Justin Jefferson still leads the Minnesota Vikings in receiving by a country mile. His 571 yards are more than the next two top targets TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison’s totals added together. On throws heading Jefferson’s direction the Vikings are gaining 10.8 yards per target. The only other player over seven is Addison at 8.6.
So how are they going to replace his production now that Jefferson has been placed on injured reserve and will miss at least the next four weeks (per ESPN and the Star Tribune)?
First, the latest on his injury:
On Monday Kevin O’Connell said they were waiting on MRI results to “find out exactly what it is, where it is, if there’s any other factors that go into it and determine what the best decision for him to get him back to 100% as fast as possible.”
The Vikings’ head coach talked about making a “good decision medically and help almost protect him from himself a little bit.”
On Tuesday morning reports came out that he would be placed on IR, meaning that the results of his MRI indicated it’s far more serious than just a tweak.
Being without an elite receiver would be a rare occurrence in Kirk Cousins’ career as a Viking. In fact, he has never played a game in purple without either Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen or Jefferson running patterns.
Cousins has been darn near prolific in the way he worked the ball to his top players. In 2018 both Diggs and Thielen went over 100 catches. The following year Thielen was banged up at times but Diggs went over 1,000 yards and averaged 18.3 yards per catch. Since 2020 Jefferson has played every team and leads the entire NFL in receiving since he entered the league.
Two veterans will have to improve upon their early-season play and one rookie will need to continue his rise if the offense is going to succeed without its All-Pro.
The first veteran is TJ Hockenson. The tight end, who signed a long-term contract extension this offseason, has a league-leading 38 targets with 30 catches in five games but only 254 yards to show for those receptions and he’s been credited with three drops. There are probably a few more that he feels should have been brought in as well.
“We've got to continue to try to get him in some spaces and maybe throw the ball in some places where, you know, we don't have to always make him extend,” O’Connell said. “He's working the middle a lot, and as a tight end, it's tough sometimes. But TJ [Hockenson] would be the first one to tell you that maybe he can finish a couple more plays. I'm sure I can call some better plays and Kirk [Cousins] can put him in some better spots with some throws. So, it's a collective group thing for sure.”
Hockenson is currently 28th in yards per catch and 16th in PFF grade. That level of play isn’t going to fill the Jefferson void.
The other veteran is KJ Osborn. He put together a strong training camp, appearing to be en route to a big season but Osborn and Cousins haven’t completely been on the same page so far this year. Cousins has only completed 13 of 25 passes in his direction with two touchdowns and two interceptions when targeting Osborn. The fourth-year receiver has six total contested catch opportunities and only one catch in those chances.
It won’t be the first time Osborn has stepped into a top receiver spot. In 2021, during his breakout season, Osborn went for 219 yards over a four game stretch when Thielen was dealing with an injury in 2021.
The rookie, Jordan Addison, sits fourth in rookie receptions with 19 catches on 27 targets at 13.1 yards per reception. One thing that bodes particularly well for his outlook is the fact the Vikings have not needed to do anything tricky with schematics to get him the football. He has lined up as an outside receiver 75% of the time, according to PFF.
O’Connell had high praise for Addison on Monday.
“I think the thing that really jumped out yesterday was how fast he was playing,” the Vikings’ head coach said. “I don’t know if you guys felt that as well, but no matter what he was doing, he was running and was going. He was getting on edges, running away from coverage.”
Where Addison is coming along is the ability to deal with the increase in physicality that goes along with playing in the NFL.
“I think he’s improving avoiding some of the [physical] play that young players tend to get in their first few weeks in the NFL, throwing off their rhythm and timing,” O’Connell said.
Opportunity could be the way to describe it for the first-round pick from USC. With Jefferson in the game all the other receivers are secondary options. Addison could have a chance to take the WR1 role and build on his most complete game so far versus Kansas City.
“He had some great releases yesterday, and then catch-transition, the fourth-down play there, early on in the game, a really elite level route on kind of a snag route, catch-transition, gets us 5, 6, 7 more,” O’Connell said. “The catch on third-and-9 down in the red zone going the other way, he’s getting maximum yards after catch. Elite hands catches. So many things you like about receiver play, he does so naturally and he’s just improving with every opportunity he gets. Really excited about Jordan. Lucky to have him.”
The Vikings are without Jalen Nailor, who is out with an injury, leaving punt returner Brandon Powell to likely see action along with No. 2 tight end Josh Oliver. They will also need more from their running backs out of the backfield. Alexander Mattison is averaging just 5.4 yards per reception and had a key drop on Sunday and the rest of the backfield has total 11 catches for 59 yards.
Replacing Jefferson is either going to take a collective effort and end up being a turning point for the season or it will break an offense that was already hitting too many rough patches.
