Kevin O'Connell wants better run-pass balance – should the Vikings run more?
Early in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota Vikings’ 27-24 win over the New York Giants, the Vikings found themselves up 17-13 with the ball on their own 29-yard line after a Patrick Peterson interception. For a team looking to prove that it can put the nail in an opponent’s coffin, this was their opportunity.
The Vikings opened the drive with a 6-yard run by Dalvin Cook and an Alexander Mattison 13-yard carry against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Up front, the Minnesota O-line was getting push versus the G-Men. Four of the five linemen graded between above average and great in run blocking by PFF.
Yet with first-and-10 at the Minnesota 48-yard line, Kevin O’Connell went away from the ground game. The following plays went: Incompletion, 7-yard pass, 1-yard pass, incompletion (turnover on downs).
The Giants followed up with a field goal that brought the game to 17-16 and ultimately opened the door for Daniel Jones and Co. to tie the game in the waning moments of the fourth quarter.
After calling 54 pass plays to 19 runs, the Vikings are now passing on over 65% of their total plays, which is the third highest rate in the NFL.
On Monday, O’Connell explained why he put the gas pedal down on the passing game.
“Looking back on it there was a couple real opportunities for us to stay on the field as an offense,” O’Connell said. “We chose to be aggressive on one of those third-and-shorts and had a real opportunity for a potential explosive… Maybe would have given us the ability to stretch that lead out…and not let it get so close. And [we] just didn’t make that play. And then had a couple other shorter third-down conversion opportunities that might have provided us with some more earned first-down run opportunities.”
With 592 passes, Kirk Cousins will very likely clear his career high of 606 throws (2018 and 2016) in a single season this week when the Vikings face off with the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook’s snaps haven’t declined but his attempts are down from 22 per game in 2020 to just 16 per game this year.
How much of that is by design and how much is impacted by the Vikings playing in barn-burner games?
“You definitely want to be as balanced as you possibly can but philosophies and all those things can get thrown out sometimes when you’re trying to come back from 33 in a half or you are in some of these close games where maybe you don’t have those end-of-game, 4-minute type drives where you can add another six, seven, eight carries,” O’Connell said.
Still, the Vikings are among the top teams in the league in terms of rushing in neutral situations (first and second down in the first three quarters with the game within one score).
The results in neutral situations leave something to be desired in terms of efficiency.
Kirk Cousins is 17th in yards per pass attempt in neutral spots at 7.0 YPA, just a shade ahead of Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke. In terms of Expected Points Added, in situations where the game is within reach for either team, Cousins’ efficiency leaves some to be desired.
The run game hasn’t been all that effective either, with Cook gaining just 3.8 yards per carry in the same situations. That’s 14th of 16 RBs with at least 100 carries in neutral situations. The concerning element of the run game’s struggles is that Cook hasn’t faced eight-man boxes like in the past. Per NFLNextGEN, he’s only going up against eight men in the box on 19% of carries, which is almost half what league leader Derrick Henry sees.
There is conflicting research when it comes to how the run game impacts play-action passes, where Cousins has been extremely effective in the past. Quarterbacks with ineffective run games have still thrived in play-action but linebackers’ tendency to bite on play fakes can vary depending on how much they are threatened by the runner. Either way, it’s hard not to wonder if there’s a connection between the Vikings lacking a scary rushing attack in situations where the league is generally 50-50 and the fact that Cousins is one of only two quarterbacks to average less yards per attempt with play-action than straight drop-back passes.
“Across the board, we definitely want to be more balanced when we can and marry the run and the pass and allow our offensive philosophy to come to life a little bit more,” O’Connell said. “Definitely something that I need to do better as the play-caller…. that consistency on some of those early downs or converting some more third downs will give us more opportunities to hopefully do that.”
Even if the Vikings have not married the run and pass like O’Connell wants, there is a plus side to leaning heavier on the pass. Cousins has only been sacked five times in these spots, which means that their per-play performance throwing the ball is still quite a bit more effective than running.
Part of that is the presence of Justin Jefferson, who leads the NFL in receptions in neutral situations. Jefferson catches 80.3% of passes and has nearly 100 more yards than the next best receiver. The Vikings also rank sixth in neutral situation first down percentage.
TJ Hockenson in the quick game has become a pseudo running attack at times. Since Week 9, the former Lion has 17 receptions on 20 targets for 138 yards under neutral circumstances.
“A lot of [Hockenson’s] targets end up coming versus some of these shell defenses we get quite a bit of and with such an urgency by defenses to make sure they’ve got help over the top,” O’Connell explained. “Whether you call it a safety valve or you just look at the progression that Kirk [Cousins] is going through and understanding he’s going to have some voids for T.J.”
Hockenson’s presence adds a different element to the pass-first offense that wasn’t there earlier in the season, yet they haven’t greatly improved in terms of yards per play in neutral situations since his acquisition (25th).
It speaks to a greater issue that the Vikings’ offense has relied on explosive fourth quarter performances to pull out wins. O’Connell acknowledged that the team is still searching for a complete, four-quarter performance. Whether it’s by finding more balance or creating more of a running threat to force opponents out of their shell defenses, there are necessary tweaks still required.
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