Lions-Vikings: 5 things you can count on
It was almost one year ago when the Detroit Lions scored a last-second, walk-off victory over the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field and a lot has changed since that fateful December day.
The Vikings have gone from an NFC afterthought to a legitimate contender. They march into Sunday's game with a 10-2 record and need a win to clinch their first NFC North title since 2017. Meanwhile, the Lions are 5-7 but are considered 1.5-point favorites according to The Action Network.
With a matchup this hectic, there's a lot that can go down, but here are five things you can count on when the Vikings face the Lions.
Dan Campbell going for it on the fourth down
The last time the Vikings met the Lions, Campbell was hyper-aggressive going for it on fourth down. The Lions went 4-for-6 on fourth down conversions in a Week 3 meeting, but the biggest decision was a fourth-and-four late in the game where the Lions were up 24-21.
Had the Lions converted, they could have ended the game as the Vikings had used all three timeouts. Instead, Campbell elected to attempt a 54-yard field goal and Austin Seibert's kick sailed wide right.
The decision allowed the to Vikings march down the field for Kirk Cousins's game-winning touchdown pass to K.J. Osborn and Campbell still hasn't gotten over it.
"Look, it burns me," Campbell told reporters this week. "Of course, it burns me. That'll be there until the day I die. That's not going to go away."
These words are unexpected from a man that starts his day by double-fisting Starbucks but could have an effect on Sunday's game. The Lions rank third in the NFL with 26 fourth-down conversion attempts and with the last meeting fresh in his mind, the Lions could be going for it on anything within five yards.
T.J. Hockenson's revenge game
Hockenson has been admirable since his arrival in Minnesota but he hasn't put up massive numbers. Hockenson's yards per reception have nearly been cut in half as he averaged 15.2 yards per catch in seven games with the Lions and 7.5 yards per catch in five games with the Vikings but he's still been a consistent target inside the red zone.
That's where Hockenson could hurt his former team on Sunday as the Lions are second in the NFL with eight touchdowns allowed to tight ends. Hockenson's lone touchdown against the Vikings came against New England – who has also allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends this season – which could help the Vikings cash in on their red zone opportunities.
A big day for Dalvin Cook
The Vikings' running game has been hit-and-miss this season, but Sunday's game is a perfect matchup for Dalvin Cook.
Detroit has struggled against running backs this season, allowing 5.2 yards per carry. With the second-highest clip in the NFL, there should be running lanes for Cook, who racked up 96 yards and 17 carries against the Lions in Week 3.
This could also be a good game for Alexander Mattison involved, who scored a costly touchdown in last week's win over the Jets. If the Vikings can get their running game going, it could keep a Detroit offense that ranks sixth in points scored off the field and help Minnesota control the game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown haunting the Vikings
The defining play of the Lions' win over the Vikings last season was St. Brown's touchdown reception as time expired. What could have been a fluky performance that afternoon proved to be a launchpad for St. Brown's ascent to superstardom.
In 17 games since that touchdown, St. Brown has racked up 127 receptions for 1,390 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Vikings have been a big part of his success, allowing 23 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown in four meetings.
Cameron Dantzler is expected to return after missing the past four games with an ankle injury but the Vikings' secondary is still ripe for the picking. With Akayleb Evans and Andrew Booth Jr. on injured reserve, the Vikings will be paper-thin on the back end of their defense and could allow St. Brown to torment them once again.
A shootout in Detroit
The Vikings can clinch the division with a win over the Lions, but this isn't their traditional trip to Detroit. The Lions have won four of their past five games and although they've come against Green Bay (5-8), Chicago (3-10), Jacksonville (4-8) and the New York Giants (7-4-1), they have the look of an improving team.
Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense has bent like Gumby in recent weeks and is now third with 4,784 yards allowed. Going up against an explosive offense with a hyper-aggressive head coach at the controls could be a bad recipe and could require the Vikings to lean on their offense to get the win.
This game could go down to the wire but a failed two-point conversion by Campbell's Lions gives the Vikings the win and their first division title since 2017.
Prediction: Vikings 34, Lions 33
