Making NFL Draft predictions for the Minnesota Vikings
This is a massively important draft for the Minnesota Vikings. The lack of draft success in the last few years means there are hardly any “prospects” currently on the roster that have a reasonable chance to develop into starters.
For the Vikings’ competitive rebuild to work, they need to capitalize on their cheap rookie contract players. That’s especially the case when you have an expensive quarterback who isn’t elite.
One of the main reasons the Rams were able to pay so many players and win a Super Bowl with a second-tier quarterback was that they drafted so well in the years leading up to their Super Bowl win. They filled holes with cheap rookie contract players and hit a few monster home runs. The Vikings have not done enough of that in recent years.
It’s also pivotal to Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s timeline. He signed a four-year contract with the Vikings. When this class of rookies is finally coming into their own in their third and fourth years, that’s when Adofo-Mensah will be looking for an extension. If this rookie class flops, it’s going to be that much more difficult to build a winning team around the Vikings’ current core.
So now that we’ve set the stakes, let’s make some predictions.
The Vikings will miss out on Derek Stingley Jr. and Kyle Hamilton
The momentum for this has been building ever since Derek Stingley’s pro day earlier this month. The LSU cornerback spent most of draft season falling down draft boards as draft analysts questioned whether his outstanding performance in 2019 was a fluke and if he was fully healed from a Lisfranc surgery that he underwent last year. But he appeared healthy at his pro day, which likely has been enough to stop his slide.
At most betting sites, Stingley is -200 to be a top-10 pick, which correlates to about a 66 percent chance he is picked in the top-10. In a recent Athletic NFL Show, draft analyst Dane Brugler said Stingley’s floor is the Vikings at No. 12, and Stingley’s stock has risen since those comments. Add in the fact that four teams right in front of Minnesota – Atlanta, Seattle, the New York Jets and Washington – all need help in the secondary, it’s becoming less possible that he falls.
The bigger question mark is Kyle Hamilton. Unlike Stingley, Hamilton has continued to fall on draft boards as teams question his speed and positional value. In betting markets, his over/under is 10.5 but leaning towards the over. That gives the Vikings better odds to land him. But something tells me he’s going to get picked before the Vikings. As we mentioned, there are a ton of secondary-needy teams ahead of Minnesota. Hamilton also spent the last year penciled in as a top-five prospect. It’s a similar story to Oregon EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux. These two were the cream of this class for months and months. We know draft season is full of smoke screens. And it wouldn’t be a surprise if on draft night, these two prospects won’t fall as far as many think. Thibodeaux may very well end up a top-five pick and Hamilton should still go in the top-10.
If that’s the case, do the Vikings go with their next highest-graded cornerback? Or do they opt to address needs at EDGE, interior offensive line, or WR?
The Vikings will prioritize youth
This draft has been particularly hard to predict for the Vikings. In part that’s because they have many needs but none rise to a red-alert level that pigeonholes them into taking a specific position. It’s also difficult because we don’t know Adofo-Mensah’s tendencies. He’s never been a GM before and he’s really one of the first “analytics” GMs in the sport.
The best comparison we have is the Cleveland Browns. That’s Adofo-Mensah’s previous stop and their GM is Andrew Berry, who shares many of the same philosophies as Adofo-Mensah.
This chart from Felix Zurek (@felixzurek on Twitter) stands out as a potential indicator of the Vikings’ draft plan:
Over the last four drafts, the Browns have clearly prioritized youth. Although the graph makes the discrepancy look larger than it actually is, they still drafted the youngest players by a wide margin.
So, if the Vikings follow suit, who could be on their radar?
Youngest potential first-round picks
- USC WR Drake London - 20.7
- LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr - 20.8
- Florida CB Kaiir Elam - 20.9
- Notre Dame S Kyle Hamilton - 21.0
- Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis - 21.0
- Alabama WR Jameson Williams- 21.1
- Washington CB Trent McDuffie- 21.2
Oldest potential first-round picks
- Liberty QB Malik Willis - 22.9
- EDGE Jermaine Johnson - 23.2
- EDGE Arnold Ebeketie - 23.2
- Utah LB Devin Lloyd - 23.5
- George DT Devonte Wyatt - 24
Here are several second-round names to keep an eye on as well: USC EDGE Drake Jackson (21.0), Wisconsin LB Leo Chenal (21.4), Maryland S Nick Cross (20.6).
The Vikings will trade down multiple times
The other “analytics” move that seems obvious for Adofo-Mensah is to trade down. Because of the randomness in the draft, having more swings at the plate is often a good idea. I also think the Vikings’ current draft capital makes it more likely they trade down.
The Vikings may miss out on the top-tier for EDGE rushers and secondary prospects so trading back in the first round could be a smart play. However, they need a team willing to trade up, which it sounds like there is a shortage of right now.
Within the past week, as the draft has drawn closer, multiple teams in the top half of the draft have inquired with others to try to trade back in the first round, per sources. So far, the interest in moving back in Thursday’s draft has greatly exceeded the interest in moving up.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 25, 2022
Still, if one of the offensive tackles slips or no quarterback has been taken when the Vikings are up to pick, they could be an ideal spot for a team to trade up.
There’s also one other glaring hole in the Vikings’ draft capital: The Vikings pick at No. 77 in the third round but then don’t pick again until No. 156 in the fifth round. A 79-pick gap. We can reasonably guess that the Vikings will trade back with one of their first three picks and accumulate assets further back in the draft, including a pick between 77 and 156. The Vikings also have several sixth-round picks that they could attach to move up.
The Vikings will draft someone that Daniel Jeremiah has never heard of
If you ever tune in to watch Day 3 of the NFL draft, there are always several prospects that get picked late in the draft that none of the analysts have ever heard of. It’s often some random offensive tackle from a D-III school or some foreign player that nobody knows about.
Give us a tight end from the Eastern New Mexico Greyhounds or a cornerback from Salve Regina University. And please let them be some analytics darling that Adofo-Mensah dug up that nobody knows about. Moneyball this thing!
