Making the case for each QB the Vikings could be looking to pick in trade up
When the Minnesota Vikings swung a trade with the Houston Texans to acquire the 23rd overall pick on Friday, they appeared to have showed their cards. The post-Kirk Cousins plan all along was to move up to take one of the highly-touted prospects at the top of the draft.
This year there are four quarterbacks who have been projected at the top of the draft. While we never truly know what is going to happen in the NFL Draft, USC’s Caleb Williams has long been the projected No. 1 overall pick to the Chicago Bears and since Chicago already traded Justin Fields there is no reason to think that they won’t be picking Williams. So let’s put the other options under a microscope and investigate how they fit with the Vikings…
*All stats per PFF*
Drake Maye
For the North Carolina quarterback, it’s all about arm talent. He’s about the same size as Eli Manning and has been extremely effective pushing the ball downfield over the last two years. On passes that travel more than 20 yards over the middle of the field, Maye completed 37 of 73 with 34 being “big-time throws” by PFF’s tracking. To put that in context, the big-armed Michael Penix Jr. had 18 big-time throws on 66 deep-middle passing attempts.
It is no secret that the Vikings want to create explosive plays with a deep passing game. Justin Jefferson had an average depth of target over 12 yards last year, which was ninth in the NFL among WRs with at least 90 targets. Around 15% of Cousins’ throws to any receiver went more than 10 yards into the middle of the field in 2023.
Maye is a difference maker with his legs, too. In the last two years with the Tar Heels he gained 1,481 yards rushing and scored 16 touchdowns. Maye picked up 56 runs of more than 10 yards. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has mentioned on multiple occasions that he is aiming for a quarterback who can play within structure and make plays when things break down.
That doesn’t mean Maye is a perfect prospect. He took sacks more than 20% of the time when he was blitzed and registered just a 69.0 QB rating when pressured (25th in NCAA). He had a tendency to be inconsistent and NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein dubbed him a “boom or bust” prospect, saying: “The combination of traits and tape make him a boom/bust prospect who might need patient management and coaching to help shepherd him toward his potential.”
Coaching is something the Vikings can give him along with gifted downfield receivers. Patience is usually short in the NFL but Maye’s age and potential should allow the club time for development.
Jayden Daniels
Kevin O’Connell has not historically coached running quarterbacks but he was a college runner himself once upon a time so it the concept shouldn’t be completely foreign despite the Vikings’ head coach recently working with Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins. Daniels’ rushing ability might also be so good that nobody could mess it up. Last year he ran for 1,250 yards on just 65 carries and 52 of his runs turned into first downs.
Of course, Daniels is hardly just a runner. He threw 40 touchdowns, just four interceptions, completed 71% of his passes and led all of college football in quarterback rating. His deep passing statistics are mind blowing. Daniels completed 63% of passes over 20 yards with 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
The downside to Daniels is that he is a one-year wonder and 23 years old. Was his breakout a matter of incredible supporting cast and being more experienced or is he Joe Burrow-like in that he finally took the big leap forward that was always there? In 2022 he threw 23 fewer touchdowns and took a disturbing amount of sacks (45 in 505 drop-backs). He cut his sack rate down (21 in 408 drop-backs) in 2023 but it remains a concern that he was still prone to getting taken down in the backfield.
Even with that particular concern, Daniels’ reputation as a pocket passer is quite strong. From Zielein:
“He has no issues sitting in the pocket and working through progressions as a platform thrower with good mechanics and footwork. Daniels possesses the football intelligence to get himself protected and take care of the football with quality decision-making. He’s an accurate passer over the first two levels and throws with anticipation to slice and dice zone coverages.”
Daniels’ sheer arm strength is not considered to be as good as Maye or Williams but his overall skill set gives him the opportunity to be a difference-making quarterback in the NFL. Paired with the Vikings’ playmakers, who often draw multiple defenders, Daniels could terrify NFC opponents.
JJ McCarthy
At the NFL Combine McCarthy seemed to solidify his status as a high draft pick. He not only showed off his arm strength by throwing the ball in the ballpark of Josh Allen’s all-time high mark for velocity but registered one of the quickest three-cone scores of anyone who worked out in Indy. His arm strength, quickness and experience playing for a championship team under an NFL head coach are his biggest attributes.
The biggest drawback is his lack of overall experience. In two years as Michigan’s QB1 he only passed the ball 656 times. Within that limited sample he tossed 43 touchdowns to nine interceptions and finished his college career with a 110.6 QB rating. He performed exceptionally under pressure last season, gaining 9.5 yards per attempt and completing 63% of his passes. Both are among the best marks in college football.
Michigan simply did not lean on McCarthy’s arm to drive its offense. He only threw 13% of passes 20 yards or more downfield and only threw 30 passes or more in a game three times.
The shortage of sample size has made him a controversial prospect. Zierlein’s analysis does not suggest confidence that he is a future franchise quarterback:
“He is confident and seems to have the ability to take slights and digest it as competitive fuel. McCarthy should continue to improve as a passer, but he fails to stand out in many of the areas that tend to be predictive of top-level success in the NFL.”
The fit with the Vikings could be very strong for McCarthy though. With Sam Darnold in place he could have time to develop under O’Connell and QB coach Josh McCown and his leadership, communication abilities, winning pedigree and capacity to handle an NFL style offense would likely work in lockstep with what the Vikings’ HC is looking for.
Of the quarterbacks to trade up for, McCarthy seems to be a notch behind the others in wow factor but he is high on potential.
What if they can’t trade up?
There is always the possibility that the Vikings can’t swing the trade up into the top five that they appear to have intended to make. In that case they will still be sitting with two first-round picks but the choices will be limited to Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. or picking someone in the middle rounds.
There is a lot to like with Nix and Penix Jr. as both had dominant seasons. The risk would appear to be quite a bit higher with them than the top four. Nix only had one breakout season for Oregon after years of middling play and Penix Jr. has a history of injury and isn’t the playmaker that the Vikings could get in the top four.
Taking one of them along with a defensive player might give the Vikings the best overall odds but the utmost important result of the 2024 NFL Draft for the franchise is coming away with a quarterback that O’Connell can buy into and build the offense around. If that isn’t Nix or Penix Jr., the Vikings must do whatever it takes to get one of the top players.
