Matthew Coller: All the Indy buzz surrounding the Vikings
INDIANAPOLIS — The NFL’s offseason get together came along with all sorts of rumors, impressive showings and interesting comments from the Minnesota Vikings’ brass. Let’s have a look at everything we took away from NFL Combine week in Indy…
Is Justin Fields or Kirk Cousins a better fit for Atlanta?
The quarterback shuffle that’s about to happen in the NFL hinges on Kirk Cousins’ decision. Will he come back to Minnesota or land elsewhere? The No. 1 team that kept coming up throughout the week in connection with Cousins was the Atlanta Falcons. The logic is pretty simple: The Falcons have a roster that is ready to win right away and the NFC South is in such dire straits that a Cousins-led Atlanta team would be the runaway favorite to host a home playoff game.
Their owner Arthur Blank is also 81 years old and hasn’t seen a playoff game since he was 75. Drafting a quarterback makes a lot of sense for Atlanta but it’s hard to see Blank buying into being patient for several years while a rookie comes along. Kirk is a win-now quarterback at 36 years old and Atlanta is a win-now team with a similar offensive system via new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and they have weapons galore. The Falcons are also in good enough cap shape ($37 million in space per OverTheCap) that they could keep upping the price if needed.
The other name that popped up a lot in Indy in regards to the Falcons was Justin Fields. The main argument is that Fields’ situation was so bad in Chicago that if he was given a great supporting cast and improved coaching that he could be the best version of himself. But in comparison to Cousins, he isn’t anywhere close in terms of resume.
It may come down to a matter of fit and length of a potential deal for Cousins. Would the Falcons be willing to go three years with Kirk and guarantee more money than anyone else?
Trapasso talked to scouts who think McCarthy is going in the top 10
If you ask 100 football people about Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy you are likely to get 100 different answers. CBS Sports draft analyst Chris Trapasso talked with several scouts at the NFL Combine who felt that McCarthy will be selected in the top 10 in the draft. The draft analysis world isn’t quite buying it yet. Per Mock Draft Database, he’s listed as 24th on consensus big boards but it only takes one team to make that estimate wrong.
So which team could be the one to pick McCarthy in the top 10? It seems safe to lock Caleb Williams into the Chicago Bears at this point but there is no guarantee that the Commanders or Patriots are set with Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye. They could opt out of picking a quarterback or potentially fall in love with McCarthy. But if the board falls in the most expected way and the top three projected QBs go 1-2-3 then the most likely teams in the market for McCarthy would be the Giants at No. 6 and Falcons at No. 8. Of course, if Atlanta has already resolved their QB position via trade or free agency then they would be out of that conversation.
The Giants make a lot of sense for McCarthy. Their head coach Brian Daboll has worked with athletic QBs before and they can’t be sold on the idea of Daniel Jones bouncing back after a putrid season in 2023. They could keep Jones and develop McCarthy for a year and then make the transition after 2024 (or maybe even midway through).
Where would it leave the Vikings if they were in need of a QB and the Giants were going to pick McCarthy? Well, either in a spot where they had to trade up with the Cardinals at No. 4 or Chargers at No. 5 or in position to take a defensive linemen and then either pick a QB in the second round or trade back up into the first round.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr.’s stock is unclear. It may depend on what teams think of their throwing sessions and Penix Jr.’s medical situation. Ian Rapoport noted that Penix Jr. got good news on his medical reports but it’s hard to know exactly how much that impacts his stock.
Do the coach and GM see the Vikings QB situation the same way?
If you listened to only Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talk at the Combine podium you probably would have taken away that Kirk Cousins won’t be the Vikings’ QB next season. If you listened to only Kevin O’Connell, you’d think Kirk was ready to toss on the No. 8 purple jersey again. People around the NFL were asking at the Combine whether the Vikings’ leadership is on the same page about Cousins. Does the front office view the price tag and risk going forward with his age and injury as too much to go all-in? Does the head coach see Cousins as a rare person who can execute his complete offense?
While nothing about their overall message regarding Cousins would suggest a schism, a difference in opinion would be understandable. Everything the Vikings have done with the roster and Cousins’ contract previously would seem to lead to a separation this year. With Alex Mattison released the Vikings have needs at defensive end, defensive tackle, linebacker, wide receiver, guard and running back. That’s a lot of holes to fill for the GM around an expensive QB contract.
For O’Connell, the last thing he saw of his quarterback was supremely good play against San Francisco and Green Bay. He said earlier this year that he felt Cousins was playing the best football of his career, which could lead the HC to believe that bringing him back with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison alone would give the Vikings a shot at a top 10 offense and playoff berth.
The middle ground would be to set a price tag that everyone can agree on and not move off that number. If Atlanta, Denver or Las Vegas goes crazy, let them go crazy. The other moving part is that the brass seemed impressed with what they heard from the quarterbacks in meetings, which is usually more important than their 40-yard dash or throwing drills.
Is Denver a possibility for Cousins?
Pro Football Focus’s Brad Spielberger dropped the Broncos as a potential under-the-radar team for Kirk Cousins. At first glance it seems impossible with their salary cap situation but Sean Payton’s previous team in New Orleans consistently found ways to keep Drew Brees around and push cap numbers down the road while he was in his twilight. Denver could give Cousins a similar contract to Matthew Stafford (whose cap hit was $13 million in 2022) and restructure a number of other players contracts to make it work in a short-term window.
As far as the fit, the AFC West is a bear but Cousins is Brees light. He is a highly intelligent, accurate, pocket quarterback with very limited mobility.
It’s possible that Cousins would want to avoid Mahomes’ division but the Broncos were on the cusp of the playoffs last year despite a terrible start to the year. He may view it as a quality overall team with a legit chance to compete under a Super Bowl champion head coach.
Are the Vikings a player for a top free agent running back?
After releasing Alexander Mattison the fantasy football world is wondering if the Vikings might be ready to hand over the reins to Ty Chandler. The 2022 fifth-round pick certainly impressed when they put him in the RB1 role at the end of the season but there were still questions about whether he can be a three-down back handling all responsibilities of O’Connell’s offense.
The free agent market is robust with experienced RBs, including stars Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. It doesn’t seem likely the Vikings will be players for them but the second wave features proven backs in Devin Singletary, D’Andre Swift, JK Dobbins and Zack Moss. Other free agent backs include Gus Edwards, Latavius Murray, Matt Breida, D’Onta Foreman and Jerick McKinnon.
Older quarterbacks are a big deal to some, not others
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said that quarterbacks who stayed in college longer like Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix were given a chance to have “minor league” years in a world where there is no minor league system.
Generally older quarterbacks have been docked for their age but extra years added to eligibility due to COVID have made college football older in general. Some see more experience at quarterback as a positive because so much development is required at the QB position and others view older quarterbacks as having limited ability to grow. The biggest JJ McCarthy fans are making that particular argument because he is several years younger than Penix Jr. and Nix.
Whether it makes a difference or not is yet to be seen. Historically there have only been a few QBs to start their rookie years over the age of 24, the most recent being Joe Burrow. It will be interesting to see how the league ultimately places value on the age of these prospects.
What’s going on with Michael Penix Jr’s stock?
Penix Jr. unsurprisingly put on a show at his throwing session, leading NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah to suggest that he could be taken somewhere in the range of QB needy teams like the Minnesota Vikings. The draft analysis world has not been as impressed as Jeremiah, placing him 39th on Mock Draft Database consensus boards. There may have been no bigger Combine for any of the quarterbacks than Penix Jr. It will be worth watching to see if there is more buzz about him as a first-round prospect in the coming weeks.
Justin Jefferson “rumors” are more evidence of the state of media than reality
The Vikings were quite displeased at the internet running with rumors that Justin Jefferson could be traded. Adofo-Mensah noted that he told Jefferson’s camp that they would not be negotiating through the media so he preferred not to respond to such “reports” but he made a strong statement that trading Jefferson never crossed his mind.
There is zero reason to believe the Vikings would move Jefferson yet social media aggregators were quick to jump on anything that would even hint at a potential trade. TV networks and content creators followed without any cross checking of the information and within a few days it was treated as sheer fact.
Since we will likely never return to a world of editors checking sources and getting the facts straight before putting things out into the world fans need to keep in mind going forward that everything they read on social media might not be true.
There are some defensive line prospects to be excited about
Whether the Vikings draft a quarterback or not, defensive linemen will also be at the top of their list with Harrison Phillips as the only returning starter. Turns out it was a good week to be a team in need of D-line.
For starters, the top prospects at edge rusher crushed the drills. Projected first-rounders Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu and Chop Robinson all finished with Relative Athletic Scores above the 90th percentile.
At defensive tackle Senior Bowl star Braden Fiske of Florida State (projected second round) scored in the 99th percentile RAS and the top expected DT off the board Byron Murphy II was 90th percentile.
KOC on TV
Kevin O’Connell has been consistent in his message that he wants Kirk Cousins to return but viewers of KOC’s interview on NFL Network with Rich Eisen and Daniel Jeremiah picked up on a slight shift in tone from his time at the podium to start the NFL Combine. O’Connell said that Cousins “earned the right” to test free agency and that Cousins is a “process guy” and “he’s going to go through the process.” The Vikings’ head coach also hinted at potential tampering that may have been going on in Indy with other teams possibly speaking with his agent about the veteran quarterback.
Does this make it certain that Cousins is headed elsewhere? Of course not. But O’Connell certainly did not talk like a coach who is sure he’s getting QB1 back.
QB throwing sessions
Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr. all threw at the Combine while Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels opted to toss at their pro days instead.
While Daniel Jeremiah praised all three, there was a clear cut winner of the day: Penix Jr. The Washington quarterback hit passes with precision on short, intermediate and deep routes with ease, showing off his cannon arm and touch on corner routes and fade passes.
McCarthy started slow and had some trouble with deep balls but thrived on intermediate passes over the middle with extreme velocity. Off to the side McCarthy hit 61 mph on the radar gun, only 1 mph behind Josh Allen. (However, the radar gun has not always been truly telling of arm strength as Sean Mannion threw much harder than Patrick Mahomes at the Combine).
Nix’s downfield passing highlighted an issue with his overall arm strength, which is not as impressive as the other two prospects but Jeremiah praised him for his technical work on his drop-backs particularly with his footwork.
Normally the throwing sessions are much more about seeing if anyone has serious struggles rather than looking for perfection. In this case, none of the players likely changed minds.
The WRs are fast and good
The Vikings have openings at WR3 and WR4 and there may be no better year to draft a receiver in the middle rounds than 2024. The group of prospects showed its absurd depth at the Combine on Saturday, starting with Texas’ Xavier Worthy breaking the all-time 40-yard dash record by running a 4.21 to clear John Ross’s previous mark. The eye-popping performances were everywhere with legit prospects Adonai Mitchell (Texas), Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), Dez Walker (UNC), Jacob Cowling (Arizona), Roman Wilson (Michigan) and Ladd McKonkey (Georgia) all producing sub-4.4 numbers.
Florida’s Ricky Pearsall, a mid-round projected receiver scored a 4.41 and Florida State’s massive wideout Johnny Wilson ran a strong 4.52, putting him in the 98th percentile via RAS.
Even guys who didn’t shine in the 40 had other impressive marks like Florida State’s Keon Coleman, who only ran a 4.57 40-yard dash but reached the highest velocity in the “gauntlet” drill.
Justin Fields to the Vikings???
A common question from Indy: What’s the craziest rumor you heard? Well, whatever bar that was set was topped on Sunday by a report from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, who reported the Vikings as one of four potential landing spots for Justin Fields. The Bears quarterback is set to be moved as Chicago is very likely to select Caleb Williams No. 1 overall.
It seems incredibly unlikely that the Vikings would be interested in Fields or that the Bears would trade him within the division. O’Connell’s offense is very much pass-first and Fields has never topped 2,600 yards passing, not to mention he has been sacked on a 12% of career drop-backs, which is 2% worse than former Texans sack machine David Carr.
The only thing we could say for the Fields rumor is that Adofo-Mensah has traded in the division several times, including the 2022 draft and the acquisition of TJ Hockenson but this one still seems like a stretch.
