Matthew Coller: The day the NFC North changed
Remember the date: March 10, 2023, an all-time Friday News Dump day in the NFC North — and the day that began to shape the future of the division.
Just before 9 A.M., the Minnesota Vikings announced that they were releasing wide receiver Adam Thielen. The news carried more significance than your run-of-the-mill cut of an aging, expensive veteran. Thielen was a major part of the fabric that made up the Vikings’ last decade. We can make the “did you know he’s from Minnesota?” jokes because of how many times his story has been told on national TV broadcasts but Thielen’s Mankato-to-NFL-stardom journey is one of the all-time most improbable stories in league history. His success was a shining purple light of perseverance and his connection to the community, highlighted by his Water Payton Man of the Year nomination this year, was as genuine as the photos of him in Randy Moss jerseys as a little kid.
Letting a player like Thielen walk rather than working out a contract restructure is not done lightly.
“Adam’s story is one many know and admire and an incredible example of what a relentless pursuit of a goal can ultimately accomplish,” head coach Kevin O’Connell said in a statement.
Since he emerged as a star in 2016, Thielen has been part of a menacing receiver duo. In ‘16, Thielen and Stefon Diggs combined for 1,870 yards and then in both 2017 and 2018 they gained more than 2,000 yards together. Following a season slowed by injury in 2019, he bounced back to combine with Justin Jefferson for 2,335 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2020, 2,342 and 20 touchdowns in 2021 and 2,525 yards and 14 TDs in 2022. That’s not quite like having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers for 30 years but it struck the fear of Moss-Carter into NFC North teams for a very long time.
While Thielen was sometimes 1A, sometimes 1B depending on the year, he was always an absolute problem for opposing defenses. Think of it this way: He played with Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins and here’s how those QBs performed when throwing his way: 71.6% completion, 12.6 yards per completion, 55 touchdowns, 19 interceptions and a 112.7 QB rating. For reference, Aaron Rodgers’s rating since 2013 is 102.8.
The Vikings will have options to replace Thielen, particularly through the draft. This year’s class doesn’t feature a top-10 monster prospect type but does have quality college players like Zay Flowers of Boston College and Jordan Addison from USC. But when we talk about replacing Thielen, it can’t be in a way that makes it sound easy to find another just like him to pair with Jefferson. Usually it’s much harder to replace someone who has that type of impact on their quarterback(s).
His release alone does not fundamentally change the NFC North but the totality of what the Vikings have done so far definitely does. Add that with letting Eric Kendricks walk on Monday, releasing Cam Dantzer and buzz about Harrison Smith, Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Cook potentially being released or traded and we’re looking at the potential for a near complete reset of the Vikings’ roster. Any combination of those players exiting would leave the team with big holes and little cap space/draft capital to fill them with, meaning that we could see an unproven group for the first time in a long time.
Thielen’s release coming without a June 1 designation is also a hint that the team wanted to avoid playing the push-money-down-the-road game, giving them a better outlook for the 2024 offseason as it pertains to the cap. Put all of this under “things that make you go hmmmm” as far as Kirk Cousins’s contract situation and future under center in Minnesota.
With a few days to go before free agency, we don’t have all of the answers but we do have some of the puzzle filled in and it points toward this team looking completely different over the next two years.
Later in the afternoon on Friday, Packers president Mark Murphy was asked if they would be interested in having Rodgers back under center next season. “If things don't work out the way we want them,” he told TV reporter Adriana Torres. It isn’t hard to figure out that he means the Packers want to trade him to the New York Jets.
With the Jets and Rodgers meeting this week, the possibility is very real that he will be out of the division and the Packers with have QB uncertainty for the first time since 1992. And while some folks dispute the concept of connecting the QB to the team’s record, it’s hardly a coincidence that the Packers have the most points scored in the NFL since 1992 and the second most wins, only behind the Patriots.
Their reign over the NFC North (and NFC Central before it) could very well continue with Jordan Love but it’s very improbable that it goes the same way as the last three decades. Since ‘92 the Packers have the best QB rating in the NFL by a wide margin over the New Orleans Saints. They have 120 more touchdown passes during that time and the second most passing yards. Even if Love is the best version of himself and the Packers escape the salary cap wasteland that follows Rodgers, the North would still appear to have a mortal at QB rather than facing Thor twice per season.
Not long after Murphy made Rodgers’s exit all but a foregone conclusion, the Chicago Bears blasted the future of the division wide open by trading the No. 1 pick to Carolina for the 9th and 61st picks this year, a first-round pick next year, a 2025 second-round pick and receiver DJ Moore.
Now that’s why you start Nathan Peterman in Week 17.
The Bears’ trade works on a lot of levels, particularly to help them restock a completely bare cupboard. But something more important is at play: They have now given Justin Fields every opportunity to succeed with a No. 1 receiver and a group of weapons that looks solid (Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet etc.). If he can’t succeed as a passer with Moore after three years in the NFL then his odds of becoming a true franchise QB aren’t high. If he still struggles next year with an improved team, the Bears will be able to draft their future quarterback in 2024 because they own Carolina’s No. 1 pick next year.
The Panthers will have a better coach but starting a rookie QB is usually not a recipe for success in the divisional or playoff race. We rarely see rookies represented in the postseason because the jump is so vast from college to the NFL. So the Bears may end up with a top 10 pick in ‘24.
Chicago now has their path entirely laid out in front of them. They’ll spend on free agents with the goal of chasing the Lions, Vikings and Packers for the division next year and the attempt to keep loading their roster around the QB similarly to what we saw from the Philadelphia Eagles with Jalen Hurts.
To recap: In a matter of hours, the Vikings threw up a white flag that they’re going to go through some serious changes, the Packers let the world know they’re hoping Rodgers is done in Green Bay (which probably means a deal is close) and the Bears stockpiled assets for their rebuild.
It’s anyone’s guess about how things will play out from here but as the offseason unfolds and teams go forward on their timelines, we will likely look back at this day as the moment that everyone was sent down their future paths. Hopefully you hadn’t planned on a quiet Friday.
