Minnesota Vikings: 5 things you can count on this offseason
The end to the Minnesota Vikings' season was just as surprising as their 13-4 record. A Wild Card loss to the New York Giants opened up an offseason that could prove pivotal, with the future of several fan favorites up in the air.
With cap space tight and draft capital limited, the Vikings' offseason will be unpredictable, but here are five things you can count on as they get ready for 2023.
An overhaul on defense
The defense was the Vikings' downfall last season as they ranked 28th in points allowed and 31st in yards allowed. The changes have already begun with Ed Donatell's dismissal, but there are other changes that could take place this offseason.
The Vikings could move on from other veterans such as Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks and Za'Darius Smith. They could also let pending free agents Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson walk as they look to get younger and faster.
The Vikings could even go as far as trading Danielle Hunter, who didn't look comfortable playing as a stand-up pass rusher in a 3-4 scheme.
A new defensive coordinator should help, but this nucleus has gone belly-up for the past three seasons with two coming under defensive guru Mike Zimmer. At this point, the defensive failures aren't just on the coaching staff.
The Vikings moving on from several fan favorites
Kendricks and Harrison Smith are just two fan favorites that could be sent out the door this offseason as the Vikings' salary cap situation requires some changes.
According to Over The Cap, the Vikings are $24.5 million over the salary cap for next season. In the past, contract restructures have been used to lower the cap numbers but have also kicked money down the road. At this point, the bill has come due for several high-priced veterans who have suffered a decline in their performance.
Adam Thielen's future has been a hot topic since the Vikings were eliminated and after a disappointing year and the unlikeliness of a bounce-back season in 2023, his $19.9 million cap hit will have to be lowered.
Dalvin Cook is another player that could be on the block. Although he posted his fourth-straight 1,000-yard season, Cook's totals were built on big runs. With a $14.1 million cap hit, he's another player that will either have to restructure or move on.
rushing yards over expected in the wild card round (on designed rushes):
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) January 17, 2023
1. tyler huntley, +25.6
2. christian mccaffrey, +25.5
3. saquon barkley, +25.0
4. deebo samuel, +10.3
...
19. salvon ahmed, -27.5
20. ezekiel elliott, -28.2
21. elijah mitchell, -31.6
22. dalvin cook, -42.7
The Vikings have been holding on to the nucleus of the 2017 NFC Championship team for years and this offseason may finally be the time to let go.
Justin Jefferson breaking the bank
While the Vikings may say goodbye to several players, Jefferson isn't going anywhere. The All-Pro receiver is eligible for a lucrative extension and after teams threw loads of guaranteed money around last offseason, Jefferson's new contract could flirt with an NFL record.
A.J. Brown ($56.4 million), Tyreek Hill ($52.5 million), and Stefon Diggs ($47.9 million) set a new standard for guaranteed money last spring and Davante Adams signed a five-year, $140 million extension that was the most total money ever given to a receiver.
Jefferson told reporters this week that "if they want me here, I'll be here" and the Vikings would be foolish to let go of the face of the franchise. That means Jefferson's new contract should have the best of both worlds and that he'll be a Viking for years to come.
Kirk Cousins returning at quarterback
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah squashed any rumors of a change at quarterback, saying he expects Cousins to return for the 2023 season. However, the intrigue will revolve around a potential extension.
Cousins currently carries a cap hit of $36.25 million for next season and extending him would be a way to lower that number. The Vikings are already set to pay $12.5 million over two void years in 2024 and 2025, however, which means an extension could kick even more money into the future.
The Vikings are also in a tough situation because they need to figure out a succession plan. Cousins is the same age (34) as Russell Wilson, who took his "Let's Ride!" catchphrase right off the age cliff with the Denver Broncos last season.
With little draft capital or salary cap space to get a quarterback of the future, an extension could be the best way to buy time until the Vikings have more resources in 2024.
Lots of trades
Speaking of the Vikings' limited draft options, it's a storyline that will loom large this offseason. After trades to acquire T.J. Hockenson, Jalen Reagor and Ross Blacklock, Minnesota has just four picks – first, third, fourth and fifth-round selections – in the upcoming draft, meaning that trades could happen to replenish their draft picks.
One way to gain picks is by trading veterans, but it remains to be seen what they could get. Teams have been more willing to throw picks around to solve their issues, but there's unlikely to be a big haul for players like Harrison Smith (33), Thielen (32) and Kendricks (30).
Even Dalvin Cook. who will turn 28 in August, might not fetch much in a trade, although the San Francisco 49ers gave up second, third and fourth-round selections in 2023 and a fifth-round selection in 2024 to acquire fellow 2017 draft classmate Christian McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers last October.
If there's one thing we learned last offseason, it's that Adofo-Mensah isn't afraid to trade down in the draft – even if it's with a divisional rival. With the Vikings having several needs, you can bet there will be more trades on the way with several of them containing draft picks.
