On the Vikings' complicated relationship with the running game
EAGAN — You ever try to get the thermostat right in a cheap hotel? Somehow 72 degrees is an ice palace and 73 degrees is the Mojave Desert.
That’s like the relationship between Minnesota Vikings play callers and the run-pass ratio during Kirk Cousins’ time in Minnesota.
Who wasn’t having 2018 flashbacks on Monday night of Mike Zimmer’s head turning into a roasted red pepper as offensive coordinator John DeFilippo sent in another quick pass?
But Zimmer was justified during the following season when the Vikings made the playoffs behind the sixth highest rushing and 23rd ranked passing offense in total yards.
Or was he? In the process, the Dalvin Cook-centric offense frustrated receiver Stefon Diggs. He was traded to Buffalo, where he caught 127 passes the following season and led his team to the AFC title game.
Not to be denied, Gary Kubiak’s offense went back to the well, finishing 27th in pass attempts in 2020 and eighth in run calls. But the Vikings missed the postseason on the back of a struggling defense. Would they have kept pace with more passes?
Maybe. But in 2021, the Vikings were forced via a number of close games and a struggling run game, which ranked 28th in Expected Points Added, to throw the ball more. They ended the year 11th in attempts and 10th in passing EPA.
Ah, yes, more of that. Turn up the passing heat.
In Week 1, that idea looked pretty good.
En route to going up 17-0 at half over the Green Bay Packers, head coach Kevin O’Connell dialed up 19 passes on 32 plays. Justin Jefferson went into the locker room at the break with the most receiving yards in a half in team history.
The overall run-pass ratio came back to earth because the Vikings were running clock in the second half but the statement was made that this is a purple passing team.
“I remember C.J. Ham was telling me how we were pretty balanced run to pass and I said, well, when you have a lead you’re going into what we call ‘four minute mode,’ where you’re trying to run the clock down that allows you to be balanced because you’re run, run, run,” Cousins said.
They were not run, run, run during Monday night’s 24-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Cousins threw 46 passes and Cook gained 17 yards on six carries. Cook has been held to under 20 yards just four times and the Vikings are 0-4 in those games.
The Vikings were playing from behind though, right? Is this the reverse of those goofy, “when Team X runs for over 100 yards they have a 80% win percentage,” stats?
Not exactly. The Vikings came out of halftime against the Eagles with a drive that gave them a chance to bring the score within 10 points — very manageable for a half in the year of our football 2022. O’Connell only called two runs on the drive and Cousins threw an interception in the red zone. The next drive, which started at Philly’s 30-yard line after a blocked punt, also ended in an interception. The next drive started early in the fourth quarter and the Vikings dialed up 10 straight pass plays to no avail and punted. All said and done, while the game was still within reach in the second half, the Vikings ran three times.
“In the second half, we - myself included - pressed a little bit, trying to make a lot back up in a hurry,” O’Connell said on Wednesday.
Imagine the last guy’s face.
“If we’re able to get three on a couple of those possessions, you’re really talking about it being a one-possession game, possibly late in the game – which we didn’t give ourselves an opportunity to do,” O’Connell continued. “Looking back on it, did we have to get it all back at once? Did we have to try to get that score tied quickly, or did we just need to play smart and kind of play the right way?”
When the Vikings lost track of their Pro Bowl running back, they also didn’t use the most dangerous weapon they have: Play-action.
There’s a lot of different studies on play-action but here’s the bottom line: When Cook has smacked teams in the past — including the Eagles — they have been forced to pay attention. It isn’t a coincidence that Cousins has ranked in the top five in QB rating with play-action over the last five years.
In order to get the Eagles to care about the run when up by three scores, Cook would have needed to really succeed. Could he have blasted Philly’s stout defensive line the way they were playing on Monday night? Maybe not. But the Vikings won’t win often when Cousins has five play-action attempts (per PFF).
“Some personnel things have kind of dictated to us… some of the run selection, and we’ll continue to work through that to make sure we get him touches,” O’Connell said. “How are we packaging plays to not get talked out of running the football? And I think that’ll be key for us moving forward.”
Alright, more runs, yeah that makes sense.
Or wait a minute now. Are we back in the desert? Is it 73 or 72 degrees? What about the Cooper Kupp offense?
There’s another factor playing into this as well: PFF’s Eric Eager tweeted out evidence from the league’s tracking data that suggested Cook’s “max speed above expectation” has been going down.
Also blocking matters. Every Vikings offensive lineman except Brian O’Neill graded below average by PFF in run blocking against Philadelphia.
But all hope isn’t lost for a balanced offense that reasonably plays to Cousins’ strengths as a play-action quarterback, leans into the pass and scares opposing defenses with the running game.
Through two weeks the Vikings’ next opponent the Detroit Lions have given up 304 yards on the ground and five rushing touchdowns.
And O’Connell is being reflective about the run-pass ratio and the way he managed the game as a play caller.
“Was I consistent in how we want to play from an offensive philosophy standpoint, or did I allow myself to press a little bit?” O’Connell said. “Was the down and distance the right time? Did I overextend us at times?”
The Vikings don’t just need to find the right Fahrenheit for the running game, they also need to find other weapons. Through two games Cousins has thrown 78 passes and only 17 have gone toward Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn.
“It kind of all ties together and it’s amazing how if you’re efficient in one area, it can help the other areas take off,” Cousins said.
If the Vikings’ efficiency can take off against the Lions, they have a chance to string some wins together with a favorable schedule that features New Orleans in London and Chicago at home. Sunday’s game can set the tone for this team bouncing back from a night in which the running game and Cousins’ drop-back passing was stifled. And it can put the “run the ball more” echoes of the last guy away — for now.
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